Interesting how Dochian Channell lines tend to reveal support and resistance levels.
The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)
- #463
- Sep 13, 2022 7:24am Sep 13, 2022 7:24am
{quote} 1% in a week, better than most fund managers! They are happy with 10% a year.
Also I get to learn from last week's roller coaster account growth: now I am trying to only see the final % on Friday night, and disregard any ups and downs (especially ups) that happen over the course of the week. This will hopefully make me feel grateful no matter how low the % growth is.
Have a nice trading week, everyone.
(Yeah I know it's Tuesday already but was very busy with work yesterday haha)
learning chart
nzdusd daily
no one can predict what we can do manage
the first trade i think it will be loser until the market confirm the opposite 
nzdusd daily
no one can predict what we can do manage
the first trade i think it will be loser until the market confirm the opposite
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
- #471
- Sep 14, 2022 1:41am Sep 14, 2022 1:41am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
USDCHF 4H short soon?
- #472
- Sep 14, 2022 5:23am Sep 14, 2022 5:23am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
[quote=jpntrader;14099587]{quote} Will evaluate myself and hone this system more for the weekend. So I spent the Saturday morning evaluating the trades I took..."
Hi JPN.
I was looking at your evaluation.
If your backtesting was correct:
You would have an expectancy of 1,20; meaning your system would gain 1,2 $ per dollar (or should I say Yen), risked.
If someone can replicate those results in real-time, it puts them on the very top list of traders on the planet.
The problem is most of the time, real-time comes out not as good, cause there are other problems like:
-mind games
-broker games
-news
-mistakes.
Still, if you make it to be half as good, it is excellent.
You scored 16,5 % on that test, in 1 week.
Letīs be more conservative.
Here is what 20% monthly does to a compounded account: (triples every 6 months, roughly).
Start with 1000 $ (the price of a second-hand bicycle right?
)
After 1 year: 8916,10
2 :79496,85
3 :6319748,72 (over 6 million)
Granted, there are limitations, once your lot size comes close to 5 lots, you are too visible for the Big Boys, who will do anything to run your stop.
Then: the most dangerous is called the "Black swan".
The best trader I know in Germany, he only trades EURUSD tick-charts. He will hardly be in an open trade for longer than a couple of minutes.
The reason being is that "exposure" is the biggest danger to all of our open trades. Anything can and does happen in this crazy world, and the market runs 1000 pips against you, without the broker being able to fill your order. (sorry they will say
).
In Europe, you are "protected" by law, so as to not lose more than your whole account. So the trick is to have your money safe in your savings account, still risk your 1% of a fat account, that is not in the broker's box.
I know Alihelmy suggests it is better to trade bigger TF, and it does have advantages....but there is more to the picture than meets the eye.
Sorry for the long post.
Hi JPN.
I was looking at your evaluation.
If your backtesting was correct:
You would have an expectancy of 1,20; meaning your system would gain 1,2 $ per dollar (or should I say Yen), risked.
If someone can replicate those results in real-time, it puts them on the very top list of traders on the planet.
The problem is most of the time, real-time comes out not as good, cause there are other problems like:
-mind games
-broker games
-news
-mistakes.
Still, if you make it to be half as good, it is excellent.
You scored 16,5 % on that test, in 1 week.
Letīs be more conservative.
Here is what 20% monthly does to a compounded account: (triples every 6 months, roughly).
Start with 1000 $ (the price of a second-hand bicycle right?
)After 1 year: 8916,10
2 :79496,85
3 :6319748,72 (over 6 million)
Granted, there are limitations, once your lot size comes close to 5 lots, you are too visible for the Big Boys, who will do anything to run your stop.
Then: the most dangerous is called the "Black swan".
The best trader I know in Germany, he only trades EURUSD tick-charts. He will hardly be in an open trade for longer than a couple of minutes.
The reason being is that "exposure" is the biggest danger to all of our open trades. Anything can and does happen in this crazy world, and the market runs 1000 pips against you, without the broker being able to fill your order. (sorry they will say
).In Europe, you are "protected" by law, so as to not lose more than your whole account. So the trick is to have your money safe in your savings account, still risk your 1% of a fat account, that is not in the broker's box.
I know Alihelmy suggests it is better to trade bigger TF, and it does have advantages....but there is more to the picture than meets the eye.
Sorry for the long post.
- #473
- Sep 14, 2022 5:45am Sep 14, 2022 5:45am
- Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts
Hereīs the link to the trader I mentioned, there is a lot to be learned from him, even if you donīt trade tick or second charts.
He does loads of statistical studies and knows exactly how the trading german laws
and taxes apply to him. A total pro.
Here is the thread:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...rex-navigation
He does loads of statistical studies and knows exactly how the trading german laws
and taxes apply to him. A total pro.Here is the thread:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...rex-navigation
