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Attachments: The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)
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The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)

  • #441
  • Sep 8, 2022 9:28am Sep 8, 2022 9:28am
"[quote=jpntrader;14099587]{quote} Will evaluate myself and hone this system more for the weekend. So I spent the Saturday morning evaluating the trades I took, and also ran through this week's market to compare my own actual trades with the ideal MACD cross scenarios that actually gives you winning trades. . This way, winning rate is 75%. But mind you, winning rates could fall to 50-65% in some weeks that I have tested. With the above number, the potential RR that could have been obtained is 16.51R. ..."

2 Things:
First, that is the trait of a professional, studying and backtesting.
Second, if you can make half of that 16.51 R expectation, you are on your way to becoming a millionaire.
16% a week compound!!!!!!
20% a month, compound triples the account in 6 months.

Congratulations, that is the way to beat the beast.

I live in Germany, our stupid, dumb communist government, that came up with a new law (against the Constitution), by which, you can only deduce 20000 Euros yearly as a loss. After that, you are forced to pay taxes on your losses, effectively capping any higher trading income.
Worse. If you make a million and lose 800000, you still have 200000 win right? Wrong, you will end up with huge tax debt. It will be contested by the German traders in court, they will probably win, but it will take years. The government openly said they want to destroy the "trader profession".
  • #442
  • Sep 8, 2022 9:40am Sep 8, 2022 9:40am
I read before, people freaking out about closing trades too early, and leaving a lot of opportunity on the table.
I also read many times, that is the hardest part of trading, letting winners run.
I am not an exception!

This might be helpful:
I started using this system as a trigger for my trades and opened a new excel file for it. I always document my trades in detail.
So I will have 2 pages on that file for this system.
One, the real-time results, with date, amount, win/ loss, average, expectancy, etc...
A second one writes exactly the same results if I would have followed my rules.

The idea is to recap, compare, and rub my nose against the facts, so next time I want to pull the trigger too soon I (hopefully), think twice.
Hope it helps, all the best.
  • #443
  • Sep 8, 2022 10:22am Sep 8, 2022 10:22am
Ali:
Clarity for me please. Exit with this system is paramount because we want to limit our losses quickly. On the 4H TF we exit the position once the candlestick changes color on the close and price is now on the other side of the 5 MA line? Is this correct?
Thanks
Mr. Robert
  • #444
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:28pm Sep 8, 2022 7:28pm
[quote=cuchuflito;14130168][quote=Alihelmy123; IF ONE HAVE 8 HOUR AND 12 HOUR IT WILL ALSO GOOD IF ANY ONE CAN MAKE 8 HOUR TIME FRAME AND 12 HOUR APPEAR IN MT4 IT WILL GREAT AND TELL US HOW This is an 8 H chart with the indi I mentioned ( I have nothing to do with that company). Omnia Remote. On the flexibar window, you can input any imaginable time frame you need: W2,5 S10 H18 M12 etc.etc. {image}[/quote]
thanks bro
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #445
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:36pm Sep 8, 2022 7:36pm
Quoting Mr.Robert
Ali: Clarity for me please. Exit with this system is paramount because we want to limit our losses quickly. On the 4H TF we exit the position once the candlestick changes color on the close and price is now on the other side of the 5 MA line? Is this correct? Thanks Mr. Robert
for me if i exit in loss trade i go out when candle color change and close no relation to 5ema in this situation
if i closs in profit there are two exit when candle color change or broken 5ema according to your analysis to situation
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #446
  • Sep 9, 2022 12:06am Sep 9, 2022 12:06am
Quoting cuchuflito
"
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} Will evaluate myself and hone this system more for the weekend. So I spent the Saturday morning evaluating the trades I took, and also ran through this week's market to compare my own actual trades with the ideal MACD cross scenarios that actually gives you winning trades. . This way, winning rate is 75%. But mind you, winning rates could fall to 50-65% in some weeks that I have tested. With the above number, the potential RR that could have been obtained is 16.51R. ..." 2 Things: First, that is the trait of a
...
I know, that will be awesome right. But in reality life does get in the way that will prevent you from taking any trade (be it a loss or a winning one).
Also (I am speaking out of my own experience) even this system does the thinking for you and all you have to do just execute, sometimes I am already tired from work and life pressure that I don't have the mental strength even to enter a trade, haha.
My mind keeps playing tricks on me, as if it was not part of my body

Wait what, pay taxes on loss?? Oh man that's the worst...
You have any internet source in English for that? I want to find out more since this is rather shocking...

Quoting cuchuflito
I read before, people freaking out about closing trades too early, and leaving a lot of opportunity on the table. I also read many times, that is the hardest part of trading, letting winners run. I am not an exception! This might be helpful: I started using this system as a trigger for my trades and opened a new excel file for it. I always document my trades in detail. So I will have 2 pages on that file for this system. One, the real-time results, with date, amount, win/ loss, average, expectancy, etc... A second one writes exactly the same results...
This is a useful info, thank you very much.
Yeah I'm struggling with this too, especially when I trade the 1H and it's bedtime; I don't want to give back the money to the broker..
Always end up closing any trade before going to sleep.
  • #447
  • Sep 9, 2022 12:18am Sep 9, 2022 12:18am
Aah this week just isn't my week.
Managed to gain 5% until Wednesday, then had a losing streak on Thursday and one of it was a crazy candle that went full SL (first time I experienced full SL on this system). Down for -1% until this morning (GMT+9); I managed to gain 2%, making my overall gain for the week is a little bit below 1% because of commission.

All of the above happened with me following the system. That means the probability just wasn't by my side this week.
Yes, several great chances happened at the time I wasn't available (meetings, lunchtime, etc.).
Still Friday afternoon in my place but I'm just going to call it a week.
Time for a nice, cold beer.
  • #448
  • Sep 9, 2022 1:02am Sep 9, 2022 1:02am
Quoting jpntrader
Aah this week just isn't my week. Managed to gain 5% until Wednesday, then had a losing streak on Thursday and one of it was a crazy candle that went full SL (first time I experienced full SL on this system). Down for -1% until this morning (GMT+9); I managed to gain 2%, making my overall gain for the week is a little bit below 1% because of commission. All of the above happened with me following the system. That means the probability just wasn't by my side this week. Yes, several great chances happened at the time I wasn't available (meetings,...
1% in a week, better than most fund managers! They are happy with 10% a year.
  • #449
  • Sep 9, 2022 1:21am Sep 9, 2022 1:21am
"You have any internet source in English for that? I want to find out more since this is rather shocking..."

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ermany-will-be

Once you reach 20000 Euros in losses in a year, you better stop till next year, in Germany.
Example:
100000 Win
80000 Loss
You made 20000, and pay 30% tax on that? (end up with 14000 in your pocket)
Wrong: you can only discount up to 20000 on losses.
So you pay taxes on 80000!!!!
24000, you end up owing them 4000, although you earned 20000.
  • #450
  • Sep 9, 2022 3:50am Sep 9, 2022 3:50am
I tried really hard this week. Only took 2 trades, looked for quality, not quantity, and it paid off.
First trade closed this morning with 5.2% gain, and second trade opened last night running in 1.5% profit currently.
Both in the 4 hour time frame. Clearly less is more!
I am grateful to all in this group for their input
  • #451
  • Sep 9, 2022 10:46am Sep 9, 2022 10:46am
Ali:

Thanks for the clarity on the exit on the loss and profit.

Mr. Robert
  • #452
  • Sep 9, 2022 12:45pm Sep 9, 2022 12:45pm
Quoting jpntrader
{quote} That's actually a good idea, EA for exit! But to me personally in my time zone, since price rarely go full TP overnight, so far I'm good with closing the trade before bed. As long as MT4 still showing blue numbers, that's a win.
EA closing trade is interesting, one could only have the job of finding opportunities and entering, forget about exits, and end-of-the-week check results.
Would love to have the stress taken away from me
  • #453
  • Sep 9, 2022 3:12pm Sep 9, 2022 3:12pm
Quoting cuchuflito
{quote} EA closing trade is interesting, one could only have the job of finding opportunities and entering, forget about exits, and end-of-the-week check results. Would love to have the stress taken away from me
Got this EA from Go5 earlier in the thread, works great!
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 CLOSE BY EMA5-2.ex4   95 KB | 294 downloads
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #454
  • Sep 10, 2022 12:19am Sep 10, 2022 12:19am
Stop Run , in my humble opinion, is the most reliable "indicator" in Forex.
After that, divergence.
Then Turtle- trigger on a smaller TF.
Then Turtle trail.

Check this CADCHF D.
I use Dynamic Trader Software, which has tools for "predicting" statistical targets in time and price. The red square was calculated by the software in advance.
Check the pink time bars below, which mark the highest probability swing change date in time.Right on the spot, does not work every time, but it is useful stats.
Right on that day, there was a stop run, and macd shows a clear diversion.
The second chart is a 4H Turtle.
BINGO!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: day.gif Size: 82 KB
  • #455
  • Sep 10, 2022 12:21am Sep 10, 2022 12:21am
And the second 4 H turtle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.png Size: 17 KB
  • #456
  • Sep 10, 2022 12:34am Sep 10, 2022 12:34am
That is just my system, I guess
you can use whatever trading style you like:
Trend Lines, Support and resistance, planetary cycles, religious predictions,.
But then STOP RUN and diversion are the main filters in my book.
Then turtle is a great tool for trigger and trail.
You all have a fantastic weekend.
  • #457
  • Sep 11, 2022 5:30pm Sep 11, 2022 5:30pm
Keep your size small:
-- To reduce the risk of ruin
-- To reduce emotional involvement
-- To give you the chance to learn from your mistakes without major consequences
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #458
  • Sep 11, 2022 5:32pm Sep 11, 2022 5:32pm
Markets are responsible for 10% of what happens to you. 90% is how you respond to it. That's trading in a nutshell
(YVAN BYEAJEE)
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
  • #459
  • Sep 12, 2022 10:58am Sep 12, 2022 10:58am
I took a small loss on USDJPY today, decided to get out when bar closed under 5 ema.

I just watch the seven majors, all on my screen together. USD appeared weak on all seven, but I still took the buy trade as this system told me to. Probably was not a good idea. I think correlation between all these pairs is important, and will try to take this into consideration in the future. But thanks to the rules my loss was minimal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH4.png Size: 17 KB
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #460
  • Sep 12, 2022 11:13am Sep 12, 2022 11:13am
Quoting Wally1953
I took a small loss on USDJPY today, decided to get out when bar closed under 5 ema. I just watch the seven majors, all on my screen together. USD appeared weak on all seven, but I still took the buy trade as this system told me to. Probably was not a good idea. I think correlation between all these pairs is important, and will try to take this into consideration in the future. But thanks to the rules my loss was minimal. {image}
Thanks for the frank journaling Wally1953, appreciate your post!
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