Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
The Small Turtle System (Donchian Trend +MACD)
{quote} gu was good when you learened this system for 6 month you can take all macd cross lines with or without direction OF TURTLE TREND BUT THIS WAY in long time frames ONLY after determine market conditions but now only with the turtle direction only the turtle trend works as support and resistance and when you found the price touch it and return more than 2 or three times and then broken it it will give you good setup you will know all that with learning and trading this system with time
When you say "Market conditions" - what exactly do you mean.. ?
Many thanks
- #193
- Aug 13, 2022 2:36am Aug 13, 2022 2:36am
{quote} Really appreciate all you help here, Ali ! When you say "Market conditions" - what exactly do you mean.. ? Many thanks
What Ali means by market condition is, is the market in trend or sideways? Certainly you don't want to take trades on a sideways market even though MACD gives you the confirmation.
{quote} Hope you don't mind me trying to help. What Ali means by market condition is, is the market in trend or sideways? Certainly you don't want to take trades on a sideways market even though MACD gives you the confirmation.
- #195
- Aug 13, 2022 3:29am Aug 13, 2022 3:29am
{quote} No prob, thanks for the help - understood. In which tf do you determine range or trend, for example ?
But to summarize:
- A series of candles, small or big in size don't matter, if they keep changing colors, making wicks above and below, and candle sizes keeps being relatively same, that means it's a ranging one. Me personally, I'd like to wait until price clearly making a clear direction first, then enter on the pullback or its continuation.
- Trending candles: they keep being in the same color, the sizes change gradually from smaller candles to bigger ones, and only have wicks on one side of the candles (the wicks are usually on top of the candle for bullish scenario; and vice versa)
Hope it helps.
- #196
- Aug 13, 2022 4:14am Aug 13, 2022 4:14am
{quote} I was in this exact trade; however I got out with a small loss because the candle signaled me to exit the trade. Switched to a counter trend trade as you can see here. Already closed it around 1R because it's Friday night in my place and I'm tired for the week. Not many chances happened to me this week; several chances happened as I was busy with my day job. Ended in BE but was overall enjoying this system. Will evaluate myself and hone this system more for the weekend. {image}
So I spent the Saturday morning evaluating the trades I took, and also ran through this week's market to compare my own actual trades with the ideal MACD cross scenarios that actually gives you winning trades. Sadly Tradingview cannot do replay mode for heikin ashi candles so I just ran through the chart in hindsight.
I managed to gain myself some insights-- although still need to be tested further-- hopefully will aid me during my trading session next week.
Some information to help you understand the context:
- I live in Japan (GMT+9), so any time I mention below will be in GMT+9.
- Pairs that are included in this evaluation (also being the actual pairs I trade): AN, NU, AU, EU, EG, GU, UJ, UF (usdchf. Am I right with the abbreviation?)
- Trading window is from 10 AM - 7 PM. No trades taken outside of this period; only managing open position.
- All open position will be closed manually at 10 PM, before bedtime.
- Entry is on 1H time frame.
Some pretty nice insights during this week's (August 8 - August 12) evaluation:
- If I took ALL of the entry signal during the trading window, this week I would have taken 20 trades: 5 losses (3 full losses and 2 small ones), 15 wins with all of them being closed manually. This way, winning rate is 75%. But mind you, winning rates could fall to 50-65% in some weeks that I have tested.
- With the above number, the potential RR that could have been obtained is 16.51R. If you risk 1%, that is 16.5% already. Gosh.
- Two of the losses came from trades that were executed between 1 PM to 3 PM (GMT+9). In other words, between almost the end of Asia session and the start of London session.
- Market tends to move the opposite way during London session compared to Asia.
If Asian session is bullish, it usually turns bearish in London session.
Usually the same thing happens at the London - NY session timing as well.
If you happened to watch ICT's material about London Killzone/Judas Swing/The Power of 3, you'll realize why. - Coincidentally, those two losses I mentioned above, are the trades that were brought over from Asian session to London session.
- I somewhat realized that with the above insights, Donchian Trend indicator probably isn't really needed to me personally because I can trade pro and counter trend (I'll explain the "why" below).
Going forward for next week based on the above insights..
- As Ali said, when MACD does a sharp cross AND piercing the zero line, that is a powerful momentum and we should ride it. The same thing also applies when MACD crosses (sharply) from the 0.100 and -0.100 area as well. It's like the oversold and overbought area on Stochastic (probably a wrong analogy, apologies if it was).
- The time of the day plays an important role. I still need to test this further but for now, any trades executed during the Asia session, I will close it at 4 PM which is London open to prevent further retracement/change of market direction. Any trades executed on London open, I will close it at 10 PM. This is simply because I want to sleep peacefully without any open trades
- No trade execution between 2PM to 3PM (GMT+9).
- With the above time management, I will try to disregard Donchian Trend for next week, and see if I could trade counter trend successfully just by looking at MACD.
So yeah, I hope that helps people who trade the 1H time frame.
If you trade the 4H and daily, that's a different story and I haven't figured out my own system for that.
That's it from me.
Have a nice weekend!
{quote} Ali actually made a good example here. But to summarize: A series of candles, small or big in size don't matter, if they keep changing colors, making wicks above and below, and candle sizes keeps being relatively same, that means it's a ranging one. Me personally, I'd like to wait until price clearly making a clear direction first, then enter on the pullback or its continuation. Trending candles: they keep being in the same color, the sizes change gradually from...
Thanks! And you're right, Ali mentioned it earlier ! WHEN I BEGAN AND ADD THIS SYSTEM I HOPE TO HELP ANY ONE WANT TO LEARN TRADIND AND MY GOAL IS TO MAKE IT VERY EASY FOR NEW TRADERS
FIRSTLY ANYONE FOCUS IN INDICATORS ONLY WILL LOSS YOU MUST LEARN RISK MANGMENT AND CONTROL EMOTIONS
WHEN I TOLD NEW TRADERS THAT YOU MUST FILTERS SETUPS AND TAKE A+ SETUPS I KNOW THEY MAY FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MARKET CONDITIONS
ANY SYSTEM MUST DETERMINE THREE THINGS
1- STRONG ENTRY
2- STRONG EXIT
3- DETERMINE MARKET CONDITIONS
I CAN MAKE MONEY TRADING WITH SUPPORT AND RESISTANC ONLY
WITH TWO KEYS
1- CUT LOSSES QUICKLY
2- LET PROFIT RUN
WHEN I PUT INDICATORS IT MUST ALLOW ME TO APPLICATE THIS TWO RULES WITHOUT EXIT YOU CANT APPLICATE IT SO YOU MUST FOCUS IN EXITS
SOME OF NEW TRADERS WRITE HERE THAT THEY DONT KNOW MARKET CONDITIONS I ADD EXAMPLES HERE BEFORE BY USING APB CANDLES TO DETERMINE MARKET CONDITION
SECOND THING I TRIED TO FOUND THE BEST EXIT METHOD TO MAKE BIG PROFIT I USED TO GO OUT WHEN APB CANDLE COLOR CHANGE AND THIS SOMETIMES MAKE ME 3R OR 4R PROFIT IN SOME TRADES BUT I TRIED TO MAKE SOME TRADES MAKE ME 6R OR MORE IN SOME CASES AND I FOUND IT AND IT IS VERY SIMPLE I WILL ADD HERE
IN PAST I WAS RISK 1% TO MAKE 1 OR 2 OR 3 AND THAT MAKE ME CONSISTENT PROFIT KNOW I NEED TO RISK 1% TO MAKE 5% OR 6%OR 7% WHEN MARKET GIVE ME CHANCE AND MY INDICATORS ALLOW ME TO GO OUT IN THE BIGGEST PROFIT
SO I ADD 5EMA AND AVERAGE CHANNEL INDICATORS
5EMA TO DETERMINE EXITS WHEN APB CANDLE BROKEN IT IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION WE GO OUT
TURTLE TREND +AVERAGE CHANNEL + BLUE LINE CROSS RED AND MACD ZERO LINE TO FILTER TRADES FOR NEW TRADERS I WILL ADD THE TEMPLATE AND THE EXAMPLE FOR OUR HOW WE WILL EXIT TO MAKE VERY BIG PROFITS THE AIM FOR THIS TEMPLATE IS TO MAKE MORE BIG PROFIT
TEMPLATE
AVERAGE CHANNEL I WILL PUT IT BECAUSE I DIDNOT ADD IT BEFORE
ALL WHAT I NEED FROM YOU TO FOCUS IN MORE BIG APB CANDLES AND AVOID SMALL ONE WITH WICKS IN TWO SIDES WHEN TAKING TRADES
FOR NEW TRADERS ONLY TAKE TRADES IN THE SAME DIRECTION OF TURTLE TREND AND AVERAGE CHANNEL AND BLUE LINE CROSS RED AND MACD ZERO LEVEL
EXPERIENCED TRADERS TAKE MACD LINE CROSS WITH OR WITHOUT ZERO LEVEL ACCORDING TO YOUR LOOK AND USING APB CANDLES TO FILTER THE TRADES
EXAMPLE FOR EXIT TO GET MORE BIGGER PROFIT ACCORDING TO RISK
I HOPE IT BE CLARIFIED BECAUSE THERE IS NO EASY THAN THAT
FIRSTLY ANYONE FOCUS IN INDICATORS ONLY WILL LOSS YOU MUST LEARN RISK MANGMENT AND CONTROL EMOTIONS
WHEN I TOLD NEW TRADERS THAT YOU MUST FILTERS SETUPS AND TAKE A+ SETUPS I KNOW THEY MAY FOUND IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MARKET CONDITIONS
ANY SYSTEM MUST DETERMINE THREE THINGS
1- STRONG ENTRY
2- STRONG EXIT
3- DETERMINE MARKET CONDITIONS
I CAN MAKE MONEY TRADING WITH SUPPORT AND RESISTANC ONLY
WITH TWO KEYS
1- CUT LOSSES QUICKLY
2- LET PROFIT RUN
WHEN I PUT INDICATORS IT MUST ALLOW ME TO APPLICATE THIS TWO RULES WITHOUT EXIT YOU CANT APPLICATE IT SO YOU MUST FOCUS IN EXITS
SOME OF NEW TRADERS WRITE HERE THAT THEY DONT KNOW MARKET CONDITIONS I ADD EXAMPLES HERE BEFORE BY USING APB CANDLES TO DETERMINE MARKET CONDITION
SECOND THING I TRIED TO FOUND THE BEST EXIT METHOD TO MAKE BIG PROFIT I USED TO GO OUT WHEN APB CANDLE COLOR CHANGE AND THIS SOMETIMES MAKE ME 3R OR 4R PROFIT IN SOME TRADES BUT I TRIED TO MAKE SOME TRADES MAKE ME 6R OR MORE IN SOME CASES AND I FOUND IT AND IT IS VERY SIMPLE I WILL ADD HERE
IN PAST I WAS RISK 1% TO MAKE 1 OR 2 OR 3 AND THAT MAKE ME CONSISTENT PROFIT KNOW I NEED TO RISK 1% TO MAKE 5% OR 6%OR 7% WHEN MARKET GIVE ME CHANCE AND MY INDICATORS ALLOW ME TO GO OUT IN THE BIGGEST PROFIT
SO I ADD 5EMA AND AVERAGE CHANNEL INDICATORS
5EMA TO DETERMINE EXITS WHEN APB CANDLE BROKEN IT IN OPPOSITE DIRECTION WE GO OUT
TURTLE TREND +AVERAGE CHANNEL + BLUE LINE CROSS RED AND MACD ZERO LINE TO FILTER TRADES FOR NEW TRADERS I WILL ADD THE TEMPLATE AND THE EXAMPLE FOR OUR HOW WE WILL EXIT TO MAKE VERY BIG PROFITS THE AIM FOR THIS TEMPLATE IS TO MAKE MORE BIG PROFIT
TEMPLATE
AVERAGE CHANNEL I WILL PUT IT BECAUSE I DIDNOT ADD IT BEFORE
ALL WHAT I NEED FROM YOU TO FOCUS IN MORE BIG APB CANDLES AND AVOID SMALL ONE WITH WICKS IN TWO SIDES WHEN TAKING TRADES
FOR NEW TRADERS ONLY TAKE TRADES IN THE SAME DIRECTION OF TURTLE TREND AND AVERAGE CHANNEL AND BLUE LINE CROSS RED AND MACD ZERO LEVEL
EXPERIENCED TRADERS TAKE MACD LINE CROSS WITH OR WITHOUT ZERO LEVEL ACCORDING TO YOUR LOOK AND USING APB CANDLES TO FILTER THE TRADES
EXAMPLE FOR EXIT TO GET MORE BIGGER PROFIT ACCORDING TO RISK
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance
ANOTHER LEARING EXAMPLE
WHAT I NEED FORM YOU TAKE TRADES WITH BID APB CANDLE AND AVOID SMALL WITH WICKS IN TWO SIDE 
BY THIS WAY WE WILL GET VERY BIG WINNERS
WHAT I NEED FORM YOU TAKE TRADES WITH BID APB CANDLE AND AVOID SMALL WITH WICKS IN TWO SIDE
BY THIS WAY WE WILL GET VERY BIG WINNERS
Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance