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  • #156,261
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:32am Sep 8, 2022 7:32am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} @GreenJ Comparing the EU to the FED is like comparing grapes to watermelons - totally different and that's what the financial markets are forgetting. The EU doesn't have as much wiggle room as the FED mainly because of the WAR in Ukraine and the green energy policies that are coming back to haunt the EU. Will rate hikes end the war? Will rate hikes cause natural gas prices to come down? (NO WAY - rate increases will decrease demand but when it's cold and you need heat to live demand be damned) Will rate hikes lower the cost to farmers and...
We are on the same page, but my fundamentals view is that euro should not be that low. The dollar is king we all know that.
  • #156,262
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:34am Sep 8, 2022 7:34am
Quoting andvk74
{quote} And what does it mean?
Someone had a large option expire this morning. You can see the price drop below that 1.000 level right before the interest rate decision. I think this means they thought that price will probably move higher, so they bought enough USD to push the price under their expiry level and closed the option.

They could be looking to trap some long positions today. OR, they didn't want to take the risk that price would move higher and cost them a ton of money.

That's just my opinion.
  • #156,263
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:36am Sep 8, 2022 7:36am
Quoting ForexGoose
waiting to sell any spikes today after the ECB {image}
after the speech is finished, I think it will be dumped again

Inserted Video
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #156,264
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:37am Sep 8, 2022 7:37am
Looks news already priced in early and so correction towards 9940 due before next movemts. New style but news fear still unavoidable!
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #156,265
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:38am Sep 8, 2022 7:38am
"My Game Plan for today:
Sell EUR/USD @ 1.0050 (assuming it hits this)
After Powell speaks re-eval position for possible additions (assuming 1.0050 is triggered) or sell on break of 1.000"

So far so good - as expected the ECB decision was a nothing burger...

Largarde is the warm-up act for Powell.
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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #156,266
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:38am Sep 8, 2022 7:38am
ECB did raise by 75 bps.

This morning, I was focusing on three points: QE/QT, inflation and growth outlook.

  1. Interest rate was largely priced in, so no market hoo-ha.
  2. Inflation outlook, ECB revised up to 8.1% for 2022, meaning another 75 bps hike is likely by December.
  3. Growth outlook, ECB expected GDP continue to grow at 3.1%, meaning recession unlikely, and they will not hesitate to hike.
  4. The let down part is the QE asset purchase. They intend to continue reinvestment into 2024, meaning they're still being cautious about letting QE go entirely.

Let's see what Lagarde has to say in the upcoming presser.

Price wise, EURUSD is well supported by the 200-SMA. There is a descending resistance capping price, now at 1.004.
If Lagarde can clear the doubt on how ECB intends to shrink its balance sheet, moving into QT from QE, then upside is highly likely.
Let's also see what London intends to do to the Euro before they leave office for the day.


Cheers,
Cat

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  • #156,267
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:42am Sep 8, 2022 7:42am
Bears need 0.9988
Bulls need 1.0030
  • #156,268
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:49am Sep 8, 2022 7:49am
Quoting andvk74
{quote} And what does it mean?
Look at your m1 chart from yesterday and the day before around 16:30 and on, especially at 17:00

Here are the expiries: https://www.forexlive.com/Orders/fx-...-cut-20220906/

Lets see today....
  • #156,270
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:52am Sep 8, 2022 7:52am
Long story short: Bulls need at least a M30 candle close above 1.0021 for continuation!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,271
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:54am Sep 8, 2022 7:54am
I reopen my long (last on BE+2) at 1.0003 with Sl at 0.9980. Target: we will see after 1.0080.

Reason: fundamentaly we have rate rise and voice that next rise will come, so i think that after dust will fall down, then market will go up.
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
  • #156,272
  • Sep 8, 2022 7:59am Sep 8, 2022 7:59am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} I totally understand where you are coming from. The drop from 1.50 to pairity has been severe but remember this, when the Euro was initially founded it was at pairity with the USD - probably well before your birth. The dollar should NOT be king due to reckless monetary policy but in times of fear the USD and JPY become the go to currencies

Nope, I saw euro 1.82. On the second part (fear) well that is where I've been making most of money. Kings always fall...
  • #156,273
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:05am Sep 8, 2022 8:05am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
0.75% hike from ECB not above forecast! EU is holding yet, but what Lagarde next will say is the danger. I was waiting for faster price action lets hope we will get it, or bulls will lose interest and then bear will come. Can it go below 0.9900 - silly question!
I got to say, she seems to be clearer and more specific than before.
  • #156,274
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:07am Sep 8, 2022 8:07am
Going down - for now until Powell speaks...
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It get's confusing about stops....
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #156,275
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:11am Sep 8, 2022 8:11am
Now the main act - Powell speaks and the Forex world listens....
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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #156,276
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:12am Sep 8, 2022 8:12am
Quoting MortgagePips
Goodmorning guys, I agree with most of your outlook for the day. I have closed all my long positions at 1.001 since it will be a very volatile day. From my perspective, we have been in the same range since 23 of August (0.099 ~ 1.00352). If ECB announces more monetary tightening, I expect the 1.003 level to be broken to the upside. If not, we will be hunting for new lows on the EUR/USD. {image}
The price seems to be heading straight to the bottom of this range again. Could be a nice buying opportunity once we see consolidation.
  • #156,277
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:14am Sep 8, 2022 8:14am
Quoting buddha-
bulls doing well
True!

Now i've got there money

Think in number 9
  • #156,278
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:17am Sep 8, 2022 8:17am
theres bull hope with 1h close above that pink line... otherwise follow the yellow brick road
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always shorting eu All Time Profit: $1,476
  • #156,279
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:17am Sep 8, 2022 8:17am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} after the speech is finished, I think it will be dumped again https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZpX62pgD0I
lol, bulls are dead in the water
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #156,280
  • Sep 8, 2022 8:17am Sep 8, 2022 8:17am
falling like a rock...sorry like a knife
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