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  • #156,221
  • Sep 8, 2022 4:36am Sep 8, 2022 4:36am
Possible DIAMOND is forming
3 hours before the NEWS + Powell + Lagarde
Please fasten your seatbelts!!!
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  • #156,222
  • Sep 8, 2022 4:37am Sep 8, 2022 4:37am
H1 Volatility Outlook

Below, I also wanted to share my thoughts for the potential range in case of volatility during moments of red news.

My worst low sits around 0.9941, which I would happily use to buy if bearish attacks reach there...

My highest spike sits around 1.0064 and if price gets there I would happily close my longs*.

*I don't feel safe with selling for today. I prefer buying dips, but who knows? Maybe I risk short scalpers around 1.0064... I ain't sure yet!
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,223
  • Sep 8, 2022 4:57am Sep 8, 2022 4:57am
Guys anyone got bearish sentiment on xxx/usd or its just me ??
Blank and Empty
  • #156,224
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:01am Sep 8, 2022 5:01am
Quoting buffedmage
Guys anyone got bearish sentiment on xxx/usd or its just me ??

I do if it wasn’t for later’s news I’d short now but I rather wait
  • #156,225
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:05am Sep 8, 2022 5:05am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
H1 Volatility Outlook Below, I also wanted to share my thoughts for the potential range in case of volatility during moments of red news. My worst low sits around 0.9941, which I would happily use to buy if bearish attacks reach there... My highest spike sits around 1.0064 and if price gets there I would happily close my longs*. *I don't feel safe with selling for today. I prefer buying dips, but who knows? Maybe I risk short scalpers around 1.0064... I ain't sure yet! {image}
One part of the current EUR bearishness was build on the inability of the ECB to act. So, if the ECB really puts a +0.75% raise on the table then I expect EUR shooting up beyond 1.01 with a more distant target of 1.0350.

But after that... well I am leaning bearish again with October as observation point checking how resilient the Germans truly are against the new cold
  • #156,226
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:06am Sep 8, 2022 5:06am
ECB's decision is only some hours away.

4 Hours graph: Updated! Today I will look only at the edges and preferable at the upper to fade a posible move. Weekly support and resistance levels will help at the process. Volatility is getting bigger, above 120 pips!

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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #156,227
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:10am Sep 8, 2022 5:10am
It almost take a whole week to fill the imbalance, but finally we are there..
EURUSD still making new lows but i still think it is a bearish trap..
For today i'm short on EURUSD, because we need to fill the new created imbalances.. And we need to retest 0.9900..
On the DXY they make new highs, killed the 113/127 area, but now formed a bearish black swan pattern..
there will be a big crash of the Dollar

Trade safe
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Think in number 9
  • #156,228
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:23am Sep 8, 2022 5:23am
Quoting GiveMeYours
It almost take a whole week to fill the imbalance, but finally we are there.. EURUSD still making new lows but i still think it is a bearish trap.. For today i'm short on EURUSD, because we need to fill the new created imbalances.. And we need to retest 0.9900.. On the DXY they make new highs, killed the 113/127 area, but now formed a bearish black swan pattern.. there will be a big crash of the Dollar Trade safe {image}...
Yes, there is a good possibility. Eyes on next week CPI!!!

If the ECB hikes 0.75% and the CPI comes in low (which can very well happen because the Oil price has come down quite a bit) the expectation will emerge that the FED may only raise 0.5% on the end of September. That would mean the interest spread USD-EUR will slightly reduce which will ignite the EUR (or kick the DXY - depend from which angle you see it).
  • #156,229
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:26am Sep 8, 2022 5:26am
Quoting buffedmage
Guys anyone got bearish sentiment on xxx/usd or its just me ??
It can get bearish in upcoming days and weeks BUT I want to insist in buying dips... So I don't mind bearishness because I will make use of it to buy low...

Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,230
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:30am Sep 8, 2022 5:30am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} Yes, there is a good possibility. Eyes on next week CPI!!! If the ECB hikes 0.75% and the CPI comes in low (which can very well happen because the Oil price has come down quite a bit) the expectation will emerge that the FED may only raise 0.5% on the end of September. That would mean the interest spread USD-EUR will slightly reduce which will ignite the EUR (or kick the DXY - depend from which angle you see it).

If I was Lagarde (thank God I am not), I would raise rates 1.0% full point... and leave it like that for the next 6 months..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,231
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:35am Sep 8, 2022 5:35am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} If I was Lagarde (thank God I am not), I would raise rates 1.0% full point... and leave it like that for the next 6 months..
They have to understand that the economy will not be crashed by 0.75% or 1%... but surly will come nosedive down due to NO GAS!
  • #156,232
  • Sep 8, 2022 5:43am Sep 8, 2022 5:43am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} They have to understand that the economy will not be crashed by 0.75% or 1%... but surly will come nosedive down due to NO GAS!
For Europe to shine they better find ways to collect bull farts + all sorts of shit (for biogas production)... Quickest solution in my humorous opinion
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,233
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:04am Sep 8, 2022 6:04am
morning
  • #156,234
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:10am Sep 8, 2022 6:10am
Damn, I just saw the rate decision comes out in one hour?? Why? Did they shift it one hour later? Did I miss sth.?
  • #156,235
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:13am Sep 8, 2022 6:13am
The little wedge is broken... IF 1.0011 allows, we are probably going to retest the upper edge of the big wedge...

Grrrrrr!.... I want my 2 cents
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,236
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:16am Sep 8, 2022 6:16am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
The little wedge is broken... IF 1.0011 allows, we are probably going to retest the upper edge of the big wedge... Grrrrrr!.... I want my 2 cents {image}
Everything is possible, beacuse i'd be not suprise if ECb make even 1% rate hike, and i this case 1.02 will be in 10 mins after data.

For me the best if before data we will have passed zone 1.0035 and my SL will be profitable ( now BE+2).

ok..one hour left to Olimipic Games
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
  • #156,237
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:30am Sep 8, 2022 6:30am
bulls doing well
  • #156,238
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:48am Sep 8, 2022 6:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} If I was Lagarde (thank God I am not), I would raise rates 1.0% full point... and leave it like that for the next 6 months..
Dear Ata,

You are correct in thanking God that you are NOT Lagarde because frankly she is boxed into a corner. Hiking rates in the EU is condemning Europe to a deep and cold winter - it feels like GOT all over again!

My thought process on this is totally fundamental and for today I'm tossing all technical out the window and trading strictly on shorter term economic theory.

1. I don't believe that the ECB will raise 0.75% today - it's too much too soon and frankly is there really a difference?

2. If you think that the price of E/U is being dictated by the Euro I have some property in the swamp to sell you - the USD is the driving force behind the EU. Saving that the euro is affecting price (at this point in time) is saying that the tail wags the dog.

3. It doesn't matter what Lagarde does - the market will quickly pivot and watch and listen to Powell speak about US rates and US rates will be going up by 0.75% in 2 weeks. The FED doesn't care about the economic damage.

From a fundamental viewpoint there is no reason for EUR/USD to rise but it probably will re-trace due to an over-extended USD - just not today (IMHO)

My Game Plan for today:

Sell EUR/USD @ 1.0050 (assuming it hits this)

After Powell speaks re-eval position for possible additions (assuming 1.0050 is triggered) or sell on break of 1.000

Good luck all
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #156,239
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:50am Sep 8, 2022 6:50am
Quoting zippo22
{quote} One part of the current EUR bearishness was build on the inability of the ECB to act. So, if the ECB really puts a +0.75% raise on the table then I expect EUR shooting up beyond 1.01 with a more distant target of 1.0350. But after that... well I am leaning bearish again with October as observation point checking how resilient the Germans truly are against the new cold

Agree, they started little late but hopefully they are catching up. They might want to shield the economy and citizens first but the low currency value is also killing them. Lets see what kind of magic they will work out. There are some good minds but they may lack some coho@#s?
  • #156,240
  • Sep 8, 2022 6:50am Sep 8, 2022 6:50am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
The little wedge is broken... IF 1.0011 allows, we are probably going to retest the upper edge of the big wedge... Grrrrrr!.... I want my 2 cents {image}
Yes, even 1.0350
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
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