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  • #156,181
  • Sep 7, 2022 3:51pm Sep 7, 2022 3:51pm
boy oh boy if the Euro zone gets 0.50 basis points instead of the 0.75
  • #156,182
  • Sep 7, 2022 4:04pm Sep 7, 2022 4:04pm
Quoting Austyno
I keep getting subtle buliish signs, to that effect I am trying a buy to a target of 1.00687. For me that's where the major sell off will begin probably during ECB tomorrow
Good job bulls, time to hand over to the bears
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #156,183
  • Sep 7, 2022 4:21pm Sep 7, 2022 4:21pm
Mean reversion is the only enemy of bulls here.. I hope no mean reversion for this one until 1.0200... All I am asking is 2 cents for Euro.. Is that too much to ask? 2 cents..
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #156,184
  • Sep 7, 2022 4:35pm Sep 7, 2022 4:35pm
Quoting johncen
My chart for now.{image}
Good morning all, so finally some action from the bull.

My longs the day before have stopped out and I have reloaded a few from 0.9880ish, most of them have tp last night @ 0.9944, 0.9969 and 0.9995.

still some running with tp @ 1.0150. I now have 1.0014 as resistance level for the bull, we may retrace to gather energy for another upward movement.

for the downside as long as pa above 9969 and 9930 it looks fine. ECB tonight! Fun times ahead
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #156,185
  • Sep 7, 2022 4:37pm Sep 7, 2022 4:37pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Mean reversion is the only enemy of bulls here.. I hope no mean reversion for this one until 1.0200... All I am asking is 2 cents for Euro.. Is that too much to ask? 2 cents..
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #156,186
  • Sep 7, 2022 4:45pm Sep 7, 2022 4:45pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Rest assured, this is the safest, non-toxic, covid-free thread you can ever find on the internet Welcome to the family
Right you are, Ata. I had covid 2 weeks ago. Now I am covid-free again.
  • #156,187
  • Sep 7, 2022 5:06pm Sep 7, 2022 5:06pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Mean reversion is the only enemy of bulls here.. I hope no mean reversion for this one until 1.0200... All I am asking is 2 cents for Euro.. Is that too much to ask? 2 cents..
Hmm... genius idea.
"No pain no gain"
  • #156,188
  • Sep 7, 2022 5:17pm Sep 7, 2022 5:17pm
Quoting investing101
boy oh boy if the Euro zone gets 0.50 basis points instead of the 0.75
I believe it will be 0.50.
"No pain no gain"
  • #156,189
  • Sep 7, 2022 6:30pm Sep 7, 2022 6:30pm
7/20 - today I watch 9985, 9972, but mainly 9953 for action
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #156,190
  • Sep 7, 2022 6:45pm Sep 7, 2022 6:45pm
Quoting JBRolim
{quote} I believe it will be 0.50.
We’ll probably get a new low if it’s only 50 points
  • #156,191
  • Sep 7, 2022 7:04pm Sep 7, 2022 7:04pm
Quoting investing101
{quote} We’ll probably get a new low if it’s only 50 points
I read a documentary about it last week. Bank financial analysts were interviewed privately. Only 20% of them said they believe 0.75. Most at 0.50. Although; We'll know after they hit the hammer.
"No pain no gain"
  • #156,192
  • Sep 7, 2022 7:50pm Sep 7, 2022 7:50pm
evening all
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  • #156,193
  • Edited Sep 8, 2022 12:52am Sep 7, 2022 11:09pm | Edited Sep 8, 2022 12:52am
Breakout but not hold 9981, next breaks 9971/63, even limit 9954 while h4 limit 9930 stands. Waiting play all step by step. While ext 4 up above 9934 possible, but not above 9979 also bearish immediate term .

If breaks up 0079/89 then likely last leg down over to bull further still in bear though as in daily tf pa.
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #156,194
  • Sep 7, 2022 11:39pm Sep 7, 2022 11:39pm
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  • #156,195
  • Sep 8, 2022 12:01am Sep 8, 2022 12:01am
Quoting kourosh1347
{image}
We should have seen strength by now, it's looking really weak. Might have to wait for the Euro session.
  • #156,196
  • Sep 8, 2022 12:19am Sep 8, 2022 12:19am
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File Type: ex4 zoneTradingAuto.ex4   195 KB | 186 downloads
  • #156,197
  • Sep 8, 2022 12:36am Sep 8, 2022 12:36am
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.. after was stopped out, i enter again. A little late because have had other tasks and no alert set. Let see if if we can have a change in direction for longer time.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #156,198
  • Sep 8, 2022 12:47am Sep 8, 2022 12:47am
Thursday. ECB day.

Three things I would look for in today's ECB monetary decision.

  1. QE/QT wordings
  2. Inflation outlook
  3. Growth outlook

Notice that interest rate was missing from my list. It's deliberately so. It doesn't really matter now.
If ECB thinks inflation will still go up in Euro area till December, then it implies further rate hikes. Market will price that in.
Growth wise, I would look into ECB's projection. Key is: when does ECB think slowdown will happen? Q3? Q4? Q1 2023?

QE is another issue. If there's any mention of continuing asset purchase, or invoking TPI/OMT.... then market will sell the Euro.
Otherwise, Euro should go up based on inflation and growth outlook.
Euro area GDP Q2 2022 released yesterday was +4.1%. It was +3.9% in Q1.
US GDP already recorded two negative quarters.

Another thing I would look for is the German 10Y Bund yield, and the 2Y/10Y spread, later today and this week.
Price wise, EURUSD should well supported above 200-SMA at 0.997. I expect it to trade between that level and 1.008, i.e. 23% and 38% Fib.

Cheers,
Cat

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  • #156,199
  • Sep 8, 2022 12:58am Sep 8, 2022 12:58am
Quoting cchin
Thursday. ECB day. Three things I would look for in today's ECB monetary decision. QE/QT wordings Inflation outlook Growth outlook Notice that interest rate was missing from my list. It's deliberately so. It doesn't really matter now. If ECB thinks inflation will still go up in Euro area till December, then it implies further rate hikes. Market will price that in. Growth wise, I would look into ECB's projection. Key is: when does ECB think slowdown will happen? Q3? Q4? Q1 2023? QE is another issue. If there's any mention of continuing asset purchase,...
likely as prices also trying to take an upper hand , not enough yet though but good tries ! 9929 limit or 41 areas will see if to join some bull action next.take care
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #156,200
  • Sep 8, 2022 1:17am Sep 8, 2022 1:17am
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