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EURUSD only

  • #155,581
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:09am Aug 31, 2022 1:09am
Wednesday.

On macro front, we have HICP for Euro area today, followed by US employment numbers and Chicago.
I don't trade these news event. I enter the market hours or days before news, and use the volatility from news releases to exit my position.

On price front, we now have the EURUSD trading

  1. Between the 50-SMA and 200-SMA.
  2. It is likely to remain between 23% ($1) and 38% ($1.007) Fib retracement until NFP on Friday.
  3. There is a long-term resistance line capping price, DW1, drawn from the peaks of 20 Feb and 31 Mar.
  4. The upward ascending channel is largely intact, even though price trades on its lower half most of the time.

As usual, my plan is to go long again, whenever price drops to the 50-SMA or the 23% Fib.

I'll try to "listen" to the market sentiment for one more day before drawing out the medium term EURUSD price band.

Cheers,
Cat

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  • #155,582
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:47am Aug 31, 2022 1:47am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
Watching EU is looking at the upside resistance. News, EU CPI and US ADP, volatility is 74 pips and also today is the last day of August - profit taking. {image}
I am looking at 1.0011/1.0046 range on 15 minutes graph. The low of the range should offer some support for later - EU CPI.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,583
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:57am Aug 31, 2022 1:57am
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} strong 1H close
ahhh the spike got me Them's the breaks. Back tomorrow
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #155,584
  • Aug 31, 2022 1:57am Aug 31, 2022 1:57am
The focus of today's trading is above all the inflation data from the EU and the ADP employment figures from the USA. If these are in the interest of the euro bulls, there should be a recovery run to the upward targets of USD 1.0072, 1.0090 and 1.0107. On the downside, it is essential to prevent a fall below parity, since if this were to occur, price losses down to USD 0.9952 and USD 0.9900 – 0.9917 would have to be expected again.
carpe noctem
  • #155,585
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:09am Aug 31, 2022 2:09am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on H4... Some of you might have noticed that I keep sharing this chart... Once again we are inside sell territory (yellow areas) and normally I would look for shorting opportunities BUT as I mentioned yesterday, now we have multiple candle closings above the median (balance) line of channel. It signals that 1.0006/21 area might act supportive and therefore I personally avoid selling (at least for now). Today, if I see good support from 1.0015 roughly, I could switch to buying dips, with targets to 1.0115 area... Let's see... {image}...
lets see if this h4 close exactly at 9982 after breaking 0020 already or daily close compete 9982 again while next care levels lower tf at 9999 and 9974 again for all bull scenarios if able hold !
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #155,586
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:10am Aug 31, 2022 2:10am
Quoting fxcontest
{quote} Last Buy 1.0054 if London open Above
Closed All Buy, waiting London PA
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #155,587
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:14am Aug 31, 2022 2:14am
From my charts, i strongly believe MONTHLY will close above PARITY.
  • #155,588
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:14am Aug 31, 2022 2:14am
Good morning hope you are great. I think the bears will do alright on 1H, not so much on 5M lol;
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  • #155,589
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:15am Aug 31, 2022 2:15am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
{quote} I am looking at 1.0011/1.0046 range on 15 minutes graph. The low of the range should offer some support for later - EU CPI.
Stoped here at the lows. Now it can rise back to the upper range - 1.0046, or we may see 0.9982 again! If, this is the end I expect 0.9911/01 this week.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,590
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:22am Aug 31, 2022 2:22am
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  • #155,591
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:25am Aug 31, 2022 2:25am
Sell Grid : 1.0027 - 0031
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #155,592
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:31am Aug 31, 2022 2:31am
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Another day, another dollar.
  • #155,593
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:59am Aug 31, 2022 2:59am
Quoting Traderview
From my charts, i strongly believe MONTHLY will close above PARITY.
I seriously doubt that, we need to break parity for good to enable the real drop to begin to 0.8500 zone.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #155,594
  • Aug 31, 2022 2:59am Aug 31, 2022 2:59am
Quoting fxcontest
Sell Grid : 1.0027 - 0031
Edited 1.0018 - 0015
Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #155,595
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:04am Aug 31, 2022 3:04am
Quoting Austyno
{quote} I seriously doubt that, we need to break parity for good to enable the real drop to begin to 0.8500 zone.
Not this month. Probably for the September.
  • #155,596
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:05am Aug 31, 2022 3:05am
EU some pips above 1.0000, 1.6 billion expiries sit near here for today:

FX option expiries for August 31 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.

- EUR/USD: EUR amounts

0.9925 1.18b near the lows and posible target on a 0.9982 sustainable break
1.0000 1.6b parity and close of the month Aug. today.
1.0035 307m too small, but keep an eye for any bounce
1.0100 1.8b top of the range - 0.9901/1.0089.
1.0150-60 1.18b too far in my opinion

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fx-opt...t-202208310640
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #155,597
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:10am Aug 31, 2022 3:10am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, as you have gathered by now. My buy trade was unsuccessful, I have a sell trade which I do not publish at these levels, simply because it is too risky. We are below parity which means 1 Dollar is worth more than a Euro. This is the first time in 20 years that this has happened, I simply cannot see this as sustainable. Be smart and buy cheap, with the right signals of course. Cheers. {image}
Hi Guys,
Buy trade opened at 1.00095. S/Loss 50 pips.
Trade safe
Cheers.
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Trade to trade another day
  • #155,598
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:11am Aug 31, 2022 3:11am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Guys, Buy trade opened at 1.0095. S/Loss 50 pips. Trade safe Cheers. {image}
Hi Leon, are you still targetting to 1.07 till year end?
  • #155,599
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:20am Aug 31, 2022 3:20am
Quoting hans91
{quote} Hi Leon, are you still targetting to 1.07 till year end?
Hi Hans,
1.07 is definitely attainable by year end. I will be sticking my neck out if I say it is possible in the 3rd quarter of this year so my estimate is conservative.
Cheers.
Trade to trade another day
  • #155,600
  • Aug 31, 2022 3:25am Aug 31, 2022 3:25am
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Hans, 1.07 is definitely attainable by year end. I will be sticking my neck out if I say it is possible in the 3rd quarter of this year so my estimate is conservative. Cheers.
i love your confidence, but what i see is EU is too vulnerable with issue related to gas, war between Ukraine & Russia, etc.
i don't know what will be happened to be the trigger of your expectation of moving up of this pair. is there a pattern to know that EU will reach that area mate?
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