james16 Chart Thread

didnt even know that was a chart

looks like a seizure making machine

lol

Nice pin bar off the GBPUSD (4 Hour) 365 ema as well as 50 & 61 confluence.

Price action rules! Long live James16!

While I see the pin on your chart (weekly) I see no pin on my fxcm charts or the MT4 platform greater than 2 pips. The hourly pin is plainly visible but in the ensuing hours since you post the PA has returned to the end of the pin and BOUNCED a little

Hi hk,
the pin was on the Daily chart. It didn't work out, but the stop was very small. Entering Jim's preferred way would've saved a few pips.

Hi Everybody!!!

I finally made it...I have re-read this thread again. I must say, that going over those number of posts is quite a job. Took me a little time, but I copied charts, made sidenotes, saved some great posts (many of them) and now ready for digesting all the good stuff here. Opening clean charts and watching...

And the very thing I shouldnt forget..Thank You James16 and every other member who contributed to the growth of interest in this thread.
It is so high-quality stuff here, that it made me cry today..twice. The way you people think and react to eachother...just made me think, why cant all people be like you. But ok ,thats another story...
Once again, thanks guys.

Happy Trading

Bluefish

hi all,
I just want u to know that my price projection using Mouteki really worked ! Please look at page 91 post # 1359. There i noted that USD/JPY should reach 118.26 and it did reached it !!! Even more.

Leo

thanks iso, you have been a true friend from the beginning.

geez blue you choked me up. im getting way to sensitive in my old age. i still am amazed at the reaction to this thread. it just simply blows me away. i truly love everyone of you guys/gals.

example chart

James or anyone...

could you please explain what trade developed from the middle arrow on the chart???

what formation iis that?

Thanks

David

Hi,

it's an inside bar and it was broken to the upside >> long trade.

Regards,

SeekingLight

ok... thank you..

I am so tuned into PBs that I sometimes forget to look for the other ones

Happy Trading!

David

Very true - I also forget about the other price action type trades because of concentrating on Pin Bars only

Hi Leo,

Your analysis is great and it has given me new ideas on how to look at a chart and plan my trades. One quick question: you said that you considered the reports at the Forex calendar to confirm your decision (based on the pin bar) if you were to go long or short. What exactly did you read in th enews that help you in making your decision?

Ok. I will try to explain to you. The USD/JPY chart i posted was one of the great chart for trade. I was drawing a downtrend line ( based on Mouteki method ) where it began with a Upward nose pinochio and closed with a downward nose pinochio. This would indicate a trend reversal which it was hoped to go UP.
To verify this, i was checking the forex calender from the forex factory. Pls take a look at the calender that i attach ..

The time for the calender is adjusted to my country. However, u can set it to your country time. Back to the USD/JPY chart, u see that USD/JPY was open BUY on 15.11.2006 ( because that was the 1st candle which open and close above the trendline ). Then we look forward in the calender, any data to convince that USD/JPY would go UP.

1. Now pls read on 15.11.2006 at 07.50 am, it shows :
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>7:50am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>JPY</TD><TD class=alt1>Tertiary Industry Index m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-1.3%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-0.7%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.7%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3072 align=middle></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
Which means that JPY would be weak ,thus, USD would go strong ( uptrend signal for USD/JPY ).

2. Look on 15.11.2006 at 6 pm, it shows :
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>6:00pm </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>Industrial Production m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-1.0%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.0%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.8%</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
In this case, euro will be weak, usd would go strong ( uptrend signal for USD/JPY ).

3. BUt something happened on 15.11.2006 at 9.30 pm :
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1>9:30pm </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt1>Empire Manufacturing Index</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>26.7</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>15.0</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>22.9</TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
In this case, USD would be weak. That's why if u see on the chart i posted, the USD/JPY was going down before it bounced to target price.

4. And finally :
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt2 noWrap>Thu. 11/16</TD><TD class=alt2>3:00am </TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>USD</TD><TD class=alt2>FOMC Meeting Minutes</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt2 align=middle></TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE>
If u see the red sign on the right, it indicated a great impact. And somehow this meeting caused the USD to go strong and hit the target price.

This is how i predict the movement of the currency. In order to convince my target price. I think it is great to play with pairs correlated with USD ( EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD ). Because these pairs are influencing to each other. For example, if EUR/USD go up then USD/JPY will go down.
I am still a newbies and i am still learning. But so far, this would give advantage to u in making decision.
Technical analyses + FUndamental analyses = SUPERBE!!

I hope this would satisfy you.

Leo.

Txs Leo. You write like a seasoned trader.

Hello,

I put together in Microsoft Word a kind of Pin Bar Worksheet that may be helpful in sticking to some of the important points to check before playing pin bars. It is a simple checklist that you can adjust/modify to your personal taste/style. I am planning on using it to develop a consistent way of evaluating before getting into a trade. Nothing special. Just wanted to contribute to this extraordinary forum and specially this thread.


Thank you

The following is a list of Gbp/Usd price tips based on this years pound dollar movement.

The GBP/Dollar have done the following this year

Moves 100 pips from the high low of the day 75% of the time 170/227days
The average distance between the High Low is around 138 pips.
The average distance from the opening against the eventual trend is 32 pips
The average distance from the opening with the eventual trend is 106 pips
The 23.6 retracement has been hit 96.48% of the time 219/227 days
The 38.2 retracement has been hit 82.88% of the time 188/227 days
The 50.0 retracement has been hit 70.04% of the time 159/227 days
The 61.8% retracement has been hit 57.7% of the time 130/227 days

The average distance between the high and low of the Gbp On the first day of the week is 89 pips.

On the first day of the week the distance between high and low has been 100 pips are more 38% of the time 17/45 days.

The Gbp has move 120-140 pips (similar to last friday) 29 times on Friday with 9 of the following first days of the week having a 100 plus pip day for 31%

The average day of Gbp after a 120-140 pip move (not including the high of 325 pips and the low of 73 pips) is 114 pips.

Taking this information and a couple of the charts just for fun I have proposed the following scenario. There is an 82.8% the Gbp will retrace to 1.8915 with confluence of the 38.2 fib level and the daily pivot point. Its max high is 100 pips at 1.9015. Resistence to this is the weekly pivot of 1.8977 and Daily R1 of 1.8997 of the previous day high low close. When reviewing this information if you have any comments on it or the charts to confirm more price confirmation it would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

Tom

Hey there! It would seem like there is a decent pin bar on the daily for USD/CHF. Probably good for a small amount of gain.

Keeping my eye on this one also, would like a longer nose and more of at a swing low, but looking at the bigger picture is more why I am gonna keep an eye on this one,

heres a chart