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  • #10,141
  • Aug 13, 2022 9:31am Aug 13, 2022 9:31am
Quoting Thoughts
{quote}Totally agree. Thanks for sharing Takisd. I must say you're quite the trader. I don't think I've seen someone with your talent in some time now.. Cheers

No I am not. My strategy only works in certain conditions, I know I will lose at some point.
  • #10,142
  • Edited 10:16am Aug 13, 2022 9:41am | Edited 10:16am
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} I will not post real time calls here as I promised before. As I don't like the idea of copying other's accomplishments instead of putting effort in developing one's own strategy. Also if you don't even believe a holy grail, what I post my holy grail here for? You don't even believe it. Copying other's accomplishments is just like someone sharing other's salary while let other work for him. So I don't like to share my salary with another guy. No offense, but you did sound naive and inexperienced as you think by copying other's consistent...
It is the opposite, I am experienced enough to recognize that there are many other good traders around. I would be foolish if I believed no one can compete a SR>4 strategy, because I already know I am not alone. And it only depends on some knowledge and time to get those skills. I also know there is good research out there with some trading signals included which worked for decades. And of course it does not replace any of my own efforts. I just want to be as open minded as I can, when I am also looking around what is happening outside of my own research. It is the same than spending time here and read this thread or others write ups. There is so much value outside of ones own that it is worth to look around. There are good books, good magazines, good traders' research with signals included, good academic papers...
  • #10,143
  • Aug 13, 2022 10:48am Aug 13, 2022 10:48am
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} Also if you don't even believe a holy grail, what I post my holy grail here for? You don't even believe it.
Sorry to say that, but if you really believe in your 'holy grail', then you might little bit inexperienced and naive as I can hold a mirror here to your comments about when I am looking around for other traders' signals for example. I think it might be the only one good strategy you had or produced so far and also did not trade it for longer time period too. Otherwise I think the chance is high that you would admit to yourself there is no holy grail at all. There is no such 'perfect strategy' around I can say. When you have found the 'holy grail' with your 'perfect strategy' on the SP500 Futures market then your standards seems not high enough. Just try to make it even better and create higher sharpe strategies if doable for you. After some time you will also discover pitfalls of every strategy. Just be stricter when evaluating a strategy.
  • #10,144
  • Aug 13, 2022 11:02am Aug 13, 2022 11:02am
If one really thinks he has found the 'holy grail' or the 'perfect strategy' when created a new strategy for himself then he should compare his results with this Sharpe 9 strategy. I have attached some screenshots. It is unbeaten from what I have seen so far. But I know it can always a little bit better. Do not forget this is LIVE TRADED.
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  • #10,145
  • Aug 13, 2022 11:18am Aug 13, 2022 11:18am
Quoting Takisd
{quote} No I am not. My strategy only works in certain conditions, I know I will lose at some point.
Its not easy to agree with you seeing you did 260,073.37USD over a month on an MFF account.. but I can understand the lack of satisfaction per success with different market states.
  • #10,146
  • Edited 11:37am Aug 13, 2022 11:21am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting TrAndy1
If one really thinks he has found the 'holy grail' or the 'perfect strategy' when created a new strategy for himself then he should compare his results with this Sharpe 9 strategy. I have attached some screenshots. It is unbeaten from what I have seen so far. But I know it can always a little bit better. Do not forget this is LIVE TRADED. {image}{image}{image}{image}
I am not impressed by your example.
Whatever sharpe is, his annual return is only 106%.
In the link I provided with my real time calls, I had posts explaining my leverage and profit return. Do the math, you will find my strategy annual return is more than 100 times.
I said I doubled my account in two weeks.( 256% since 7/15/2022 up to now, that is in less than a month)
I only need to make 50% per month to achieve 100 times per year.
  • #10,147
  • Aug 13, 2022 11:35am Aug 13, 2022 11:35am
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} I am not impressed by your example. Whatever sharpe is, his annual return is only 106%. In the link I provided with my real time calls, I had posts explaining my leverage and profit return. Do the math, you will find my strategy annual return is more than 100 times. I said I doubled my account in two weeks. I only need to make 50% per month to achieve 100 times per year.
It seems you do not know how the Sharpe Ratio is calculated. You need to take into account the risk or Drawdown of your strategy too. In my example he could compound even faster than you, but he did not just keep the overall leverage and drawdown risk in percentage terms low. You never know when a black swan occurs and then all your fast compounding goes to zero because a much bigger than expected drawdown occured. I am very sure his strategy is better than yours. But if you can keep doing at least +50% monthly, then in a few years you are super rich or a billionaire. To double the accounts in two weeks it is not the most difficult but to keep it over and over again for a longer time period is extremely difficult. It also seems you have not traded your strategy for a longer period, otherwise you already would be a multi-millionaire and not seeking help from props because their provided capital leverage would be bargain to you. You spend also time here in this thread, hmm...
  • #10,148
  • Aug 13, 2022 11:44am Aug 13, 2022 11:44am
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} It seems you do not know how the Sharpe Ratio is calculated. You need to take into account the risk or Drawdown of your strategy too. In my example he could compound even faster than you, but he did not just keep the overall leverage and drawdown risk in percentage terms low. You never know when a black swan occurs and then all your fast compounding goes to zero because a much bigger than expected drawdown occured. I am very sure his strategy is better than yours. But if you can keep doing at least +50% monthly, then in a few years you are...
My strategy is not built on sharpe, but on Kelly Criterion, about 1/4 Kelly.
So the leverage is low enough to ensure zero risk of ruin. No black swan can ruin it because every trade entry come with a stop loss that cut the potential loss as small as possible.
The strategy is not expected to profit big one month and small in another month, and is not to expected to profit less than 50% in any month.
  • #10,149
  • Aug 13, 2022 11:49am Aug 13, 2022 11:49am
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} My strategy is not built on sharpe, but on Kelly Criterion, about 1/4 Kelly. So the leverage is low enough to ensure zero risk of ruin. No black swan can ruin it because every trade entry come with a stop loss that cut the potential loss as small as possible. The strategy is not expected to profit big one month and small in another month, and is not to expected to profit less than 50% in any month.
Let's see how it will work in the next months. If your strategy is really that good over a longer time period then I might be wrong with my guessing. You can tell us more if you are such successful as your success would be an inspiration to others. In case it does not work that good anymore you could tell us the why then maybe you could also enlighten us with your insights to some extent. Actually I have not found any such good strategy on the SP500 futures market than you are presenting here to us. Personally I believe your excellent performance is because of the strong upmove in US stock indexes, but I might be wrong. Only more time can tell us...so let us know.
  • #10,150
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:04pm Aug 13, 2022 12:04pm
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} My strategy is not built on sharpe, but on Kelly Criterion, about 1/4 Kelly. So the leverage is low enough to ensure zero risk of ruin. No black swan can ruin it because every trade entry come with a stop loss that cut the potential loss as small as possible. The strategy is not expected to profit big one month and small in another month, and is not to expected to profit less than 50% in any month.
I am not impressed at all after I have look at the recent SPX performance since 07/15/2022 up to now. I wanted to know how much skill would be required to do 400 points in net profit with only 80 points drawdown. NONE, to be short here. The SPX gained 10% or 400 points in net profit just with buyandhold and made a 2% or 80 points drawdown too. So your whole performance since mid July this year is based more on luck with the overall good SPX performance. That does not mean it can work how you suggested doing at least +50% monthly with your Kelly criterion as position sizing method. That kind of leverage could also work the other way around. To illustrate what I have said here, I have attached the plain 1 hour chart on SP500 cash contract since mid July this year. Then I have added a buyandhold strategy to it.
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  • #10,151
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:13pm Aug 13, 2022 12:13pm
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} I am not impressed at all after I have look at the recent SPX performance since 07/15/2022 up to now. I wanted to know how much skill would be required to do 400 points in net profit with only 80 points drawdown. NONE, to be short here. The SPX gained 10% or 400 points in net profit just with buyandhold and made a 2% or 80 points drawdown too. So your whole performance since mid July this year is based more on luck with the overall good SPX performance. That does not mean it can work how you suggested doing at least +50% monthly with your...
I am not talking with you on this topic anymore, because you are really a layman. Your posts only showed you know every little about trading.
Would like to discuss with someone with more experiences in trading.

If you want to copy other's strategies, then go for it.
I just won't expose my strategy to anyone who tries to decode it.
  • #10,152
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:18pm Aug 13, 2022 12:18pm
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} I am not talking with you on this topic anymore, because you are really a layman. Would like to discuss with someone with more experiences in trading. If you want to copy other's strategies, then go for it. I just won't expose my strategy to anyone who tries to decode it.
Sorry not to be clear. I do not want your strategy and do not want to hear from your calls or signals as I see no added value. You are really fooling yourself when you believe you have found the 'holy grail' or somthing on this simple buyandhold trick. Also it could explain Takisd recent performance on his buy the dip strategy. You could easily make with compounding some 100% return on a max 10% Drawdown in the last 4 weeks. My charts explain this well. If you really believe you are the exception and that unique in your trading skills then maybe you should not go with prop firms and just do your own compounding on your own personal accounts only. Otherwise prop firms will only limit your returns while you could do a lot more with your own compounding on your own personal accounts. Good luck anyway, you need it.
  • #10,153
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:26pm Aug 13, 2022 12:26pm
Quoting TrAndy1
{quote} Sorry not to be clear. I do not want your strategy and do not want to hear from your calls or signals as I see no added value. You are really fooling yourself when you believe you have found the 'holy grail' or somthing on this simple buyandhold trick. Also it could explain Takisd recent performance on his buy the dip strategy. You could easily make with compounding some 100% return on a max 10% Drawdown in the last 4 weeks. My charts explain this well. If you really believe you are the exception and that unique in your trading skills then...
The more you talk on this topic, the more people will know you are a newbie.
  • #10,154
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:35pm Aug 13, 2022 12:35pm
Quoting Thoughts
{quote}Its not easy to agree with you seeing you did 260,073.37USD over a month on an MFF account.. but I can understand the lack of satisfaction per success with different market states.

Its not hard to make money with prop firms mate. Just have to have the right understanding of the opportunity and the will to risk it. I wish my manchester united team would strategically think as well but that might be asking too much
  • #10,155
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:36pm Aug 13, 2022 12:36pm
Quoting wmwmw
{quote}No black swan can ruin it because every trade entry come with a stop loss that cut the potential loss as small as possible. The strategy is not expected to profit big one month and small in another month, and is not to expected to profit less than 50% in any month.
In my experience, sooner or later every strategy either gets ruined or stops generating profit (if not being adjusted regularly). The position sizing method determines which scenario prevails. 50% of profit generated each month consistently is soo much high that it is impossible to ensure zero risk of ruin in the same time. Just my 2c to save your time and possible future disappointment
Money is made by sitting, not trading
  • #10,156
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:44pm Aug 13, 2022 12:44pm
Quoting wmwmw
{quote} The more you talk on this topic, the more people will know you are a newbie.
Ha, I just hold the mirror to you. That comment must be mirrored to you. Stop the hate and offenses here. You will calm nevertheless when SPX gets difficult to trade.
  • #10,157
  • Aug 13, 2022 12:55pm Aug 13, 2022 12:55pm
Quoting Vitore
50% of profit generated each month consistently is soo much high
-Yes. 50% per month is simply not sustainable over the long-term.

That said, these remote prop firms offer a very special opportunity for those that are able to establish a workable system. Trading without risk changes the game.
  • #10,158
  • Edited 1:42pm Aug 13, 2022 1:18pm | Edited 1:42pm
wmwmw
SPX 4100 makes an exit signal if touched.
SPX day low is 4110 right now.

Last edited: Jun 1, 2022

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...367351/page-23

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wmwmw
If you guys check my previous posts in this thread, I have accurately predicted the June market decline.
Now I will make another call that will show how TA works.
Friday 7/15/2022 is the day equity starts a short term up trend.
It was the first day of an up trend. So how you profit ? Long spx, set a stop at Friday day low.
9 in10 chance the up trend will come true.
In the 1/10 chance it fails, you have stop to cut your loss.

#307 Jul 16, 2022 Report

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...367351/page-31

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It seems very few can understand deciding the start of a trend is as tough as deciding a trend that has not finished .
There were dips in early June, late July and early August. So what made me decide dip in early June was the start of a down trend and dips in late July and early August were only the dips in an up trend?
When you look back it seems easy to hold it all through the July-August rally, but if you hold your position when late July spx drop 100 points from high,and early August market went down 4 days in a row, what make you make judgement that market won't go down further from there and what give you courage to hold position through all these dips?
That is why I said if you are not experienced, you don't know nothing what real trading is.
I gained 400 points because market rally during that period? Those words are just what a layman will say. If you yourself trade it you probably would short it because market goes too high.
On 7/16/2022 when I said it was the first day of an up trend, people talked me like you would lose big because this is a big bear market.
When August employment report came out and market drop big premarket , people all thought the rally was going to end right on that day. So could you decide the up trend is still intact?

In short, my strategy can enter at the start of an short term trend and exit at the end of the trend, not in middle way.
If market did not go further up and trend changed from early August, my strategy will be in short position now.
  • #10,159
  • Aug 13, 2022 1:40pm Aug 13, 2022 1:40pm
Quoting wmwmw
It seems very few can understand deciding the start of a trend is as tough as deciding an up trend that has not finished
I assume you're not going to reveal how you determine the trend start and it's finish so that we could validate your strategy, are you?
So how can I know this one prediction (incl. the decision to stay in the trend until today despite the drops) was based on more than just a good luck?
The reason I ask is - I was also lucky many times in the past. I also used TA to increase my chances but in the end of the day I always knew a good luck was a big part of my wins. How can I verify that you can actually call the start and finish with a 9/10 success rate long term?
Money is made by sitting, not trading
  • #10,160
  • Aug 13, 2022 1:47pm Aug 13, 2022 1:47pm
Quoting Vitore
{quote} I assume you're not going to reveal how you determine the trend start and it's finish so that we could validate your strategy, are you? So how can I know this one prediction (incl. the decision to stay in the trend until today despite the drops) was based on more than just a good luck? The reason I ask is - I was also lucky many times in the past. I also used TA to increase my chances but in the end of the day I always knew a good luck was a big part of my wins. How can I verify that you can actually call the start and finish with a 9/10...
You don't need to verify because I am not going to ask you for anything and you are not going to get anything from my strategy.
I was going to post real times calls in this thread,I can post for one or two years to show that my strategy can catch start and end of every short term trend. That could be served as a verification, but I now see negative value for me to do this.
So let just talk this to kill time.
You don't need to verify, but don't make conclusion that my strategy is not a consistently winning strategy.
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