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AUD/USD

  • #107,741
  • Aug 9, 2022 12:19am Aug 9, 2022 12:19am
Looks as tho heading for an intra-day reversal, above earlier morning high and likely to close on or at near lows for the day, below previous close. Obviously all eyes on US CPI data out tonite 10.30PM Aus time, but not looking too good at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD1.png Size: 33 KB
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #107,742
  • Aug 9, 2022 2:54am Aug 9, 2022 2:54am
Sold at 0.6971 Target 0.6885 Sl 0.6998
Forex Learner
  • #107,743
  • Aug 9, 2022 6:23am Aug 9, 2022 6:23am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} it appears to be topping out around 0.699, where my sell order got triggered {image}
It doesn't want to get away from 0.699 yet. CPI report is tomorrow. A soft report might support AUD due to risk-on, but how likely is that since the FED is hawkish?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_2022-08-09_07-21-30.png Size: 32 KB
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,744
  • Aug 9, 2022 7:48pm Aug 9, 2022 7:48pm
I'm in short since 0.699. This pair looks bearish, but there still could be spikes higher after the CPI report tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_2022-08-09_20-47-07.png Size: 31 KB
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,745
  • Aug 9, 2022 8:03pm Aug 9, 2022 8:03pm
Had the run up been more legit you would've at least seen it hit upper resistance of .7017 and hold above .7000.

What we're seeing are the liquidity providers trying to cover their open shorts in a hurry that they couldn't shake, in my case the long I entered at .6940. They take the market up when you are short to shake you out for the profit, but they don't want longs to hop on so they take it up aggressively and fast. Yes, even they have to cover their positions before releases. I wouldn't be too surprised if they take it to .6900 or lower.

The price right now is where it broke through a 1HR resistance during the Asian session on the 8th.

I am still short at the same vicinity I took the subsequent long.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,746
  • Aug 10, 2022 12:22am Aug 10, 2022 12:22am
Thanks. Local traders into it this AM, about 0900 Open (for them), shorts still looking ok.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LittleAussieBattler.png Size: 17 KB
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #107,747
  • Edited 10:31am Aug 10, 2022 9:50am | Edited 10:31am
Order situation looks ripe for them to take it up to 7130 if things don't change fast....which is also the upper resistance on the 4H.

Took a bit of a wack because I hedged late on account of sleep.

Short again and expecting for it to go higher, hedged a bit more proper this time.

It's oversold overbought and can stay overbought. I'd expect the Asians to jam it up some too, however there's a ton of unresolved liquidity below here and they're not going to let it go for long.

It did break above the 4HR trend support, which this current bar is sitting right on.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,748
  • Aug 10, 2022 11:05am Aug 10, 2022 11:05am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} هه شما تقریباً آنجا هستید. آیا این BE شماست؟ راستش را بخواهید باور نمی کردم اینقدر سریع به آنجا بپرد....
What is your prediction?
  • #107,749
  • Aug 10, 2022 11:16am Aug 10, 2022 11:16am
Quoting H13
Order situation looks ripe for them to take it up to 7130 if things don't change fast....which is also the upper resistance on the 4H. Took a bit of a wack because I hedged late on account of sleep. Short again and expecting for it to go higher, hedged a bit more proper this time. It's oversold overbought and can stay overbought. I'd expect the Asians to jam it up some too, however there's a ton of unresolved liquidity below here and they're not going to let it go for long. It did break above the 4HR trend support, which this current bar is sitting...
Yup they're moving it up.

This could last for days all the way up to .72100

Closing out short before the weekend. Hedge should keep me neutral to a point.

I am building the position still though.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,750
  • Aug 10, 2022 11:22am Aug 10, 2022 11:22am
Quoting H13
{quote} بله، آنها آن را بالا می برند. این می تواند برای روزها تا 0.72100 ادامه داشته باشد. هیدج باید تا حدی من را...
Is there a possibility of going down after tomorrow's statistics?
  • #107,751
  • Edited 12:10pm Aug 10, 2022 11:46am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting masoudja
{quote} Is there a possibility of going down after tomorrow's statistics?
Anything is possible, but not likely unless it's knockout in dollars favor. It's broke through a new resistance and when that happens the want to test the next resistance level. Although not a daily resistance, if you look at your 4HR chart you can see it's back in the channel from last month...that's a pretty strong move.

Today's lowered CPI may be hinting that the interest rates are taking effect and the market may start pricing in less inflationary pressures.

I highly doubt a complete retrace but some sort of a pull back is what I'm expecting. The things in favor are profit taking and a Friday or Thursday technical retrace to go after the liquidity they blew by.

But I don't see it going back below .6950.

I would prefer it go to .7130-40 and deflect.

And remember, the Aussie and Asians may take it up higher in their sessions in response the release today...or they could bash it.

They always keep you guessing.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,752
  • Aug 10, 2022 1:23pm Aug 10, 2022 1:23pm
Quoting masoudja
{quote} What is your prediction?
This is a tricky one. I will try D1 TF and it looks like that:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D1.png Size: 19 KB

I see inverted SHS forming here, but the right shoulder may fall down to 0.6980 - 0.7000 before it resumes uptrend.
Long term bullish target 0.72xx
No username yet? You are on my ignore list. Fuck off and do not quote me!
  • #107,753
  • Aug 10, 2022 8:59pm Aug 10, 2022 8:59pm
The CPI data which came out last night was a definite looming concern, and turned out to be justified. Stopped out of shorts, shaken but not stirred. AUD coming back a bit now, maybe has broken free upside, leave it alone for a bit now to readjust to bursting thro 0.70. All safe.
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #107,754
  • Aug 10, 2022 11:45pm Aug 10, 2022 11:45pm
I don't know why I decided to short strength....
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,755
  • Aug 11, 2022 12:40am Aug 11, 2022 12:40am
Quoting H13
I don't know why I decided to short strength....
Yeah well, if you call 0.68 as strength, good question. Nonetheless, where do you see it headed, more to the point?
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #107,756
  • Aug 11, 2022 5:37am Aug 11, 2022 5:37am
It seems to be waiting for today's dollar figures.
  • #107,757
  • Aug 11, 2022 6:34am Aug 11, 2022 6:34am
Jump Baby, jump
Beginners Luck
  • #107,758
  • Aug 11, 2022 6:48pm Aug 11, 2022 6:48pm
Quoting yani38
{quote} Yeah well, if you call 0.68 as strength, good question. Nonetheless, where do you see it headed, more to the point?
It's pretty clear they want to take it back to the June high.

They're trying to cover their positions that they put on there for whatever reasons.

What is killing me is right below us is a huge area where the liquidity void was created after the cpi release. Think of it as a giant gap in a chart. EVERY USD pair has this and I guarantee it'll get filled, but they can just as easily prevent a retrace and come back to it in month after shooting it up to .7280 in the meantime. This throws traders that know about these kinds of things loop, the fuckers in control of the algos are so deceiving now it's not even funny.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
  • #107,759
  • Aug 11, 2022 7:25pm Aug 11, 2022 7:25pm
Quoting H13
{quote} It's pretty clear they want to take it back to the June high. They're trying to cover their positions that they put on there for whatever reasons. What is killing me is right below us is a huge area where the liquidity void was created after the cpi release. Think of it as a giant gap in a chart. EVERY USD pair has this and I guarantee it'll get filled, but they can just as easily prevent a retrace and come back to it in month after shooting it up to .7280 in the meantime. This throws traders that know about these kinds of things loop, the...
Good answer and thanks, the 'liquidity void' you speak of a real thing, certainly a playground for the algos and fund money etc, esp with a low liquidity currency AUD.
"Don't Shoot Me I'm Only the Piano Player"
  • #107,760
  • Aug 12, 2022 12:02am Aug 12, 2022 12:02am
@exactly 12:36 NY time I closed hedge shorting this pair and stopped the breakout that's being retraced right now. You can see it on your minute chart.

The forex market is all algo trying to take out client positions now...you guys don't know it.

Fx trading is now literally trying to hop on a move of the strongest algo in the process of taking out it's customers positions.
THESE PEOPLE WITH COLORED BADGES ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL TRADERS
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