Disliked{quote} Thanks a lot my friend,,Do you believe in continuing the process until level 108?Ignored
Until then not sure
1
- Post #153,742
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- Edited at 4:50pm Aug 5, 2022 4:32pm | Edited at 4:50pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 17,993 Posts
- Post #153,743
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- Aug 5, 2022 4:34pm Aug 5, 2022 4:34pm
{quote} Wednesday CPI numbers will give an outcome, chances are not unreal. Until then not sure
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- Post #153,744
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- Aug 5, 2022 5:17pm Aug 5, 2022 5:17pm
- Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Discipline creates Lifestyle | 1,750 Posts
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
- Post #153,745
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- Aug 5, 2022 5:17pm Aug 5, 2022 5:17pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: CME seat owner | 6,124 Posts | Invisible
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
- Post #153,746
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- Aug 5, 2022 5:57pm Aug 5, 2022 5:57pm
If H1 closes above 1.01500 I expect 1.02700 (My entry SELL has been defended since yesterday).
Good weekend to everyone!
"No pain no gain"
Trading Seeder All Time Return:
246.5%
- Post #153,747
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- Aug 6, 2022 3:03am Aug 6, 2022 3:03am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 17,993 Posts
- Post #153,748
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- Aug 6, 2022 4:46am Aug 6, 2022 4:46am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: "Through Playing Down Graphs" | 4,301 Posts
1.0123 holded this awfull drop for EURUSD (65 pips in 5 min) after NFP, it should have taken it out, but the Friday close was the reason that it didn't failed further towards 1.0100 and also some drop in volatility this August is obvious, many people are on vacations.
Now as if, it is going to stay above the Monday is easy, I change timeframe to a smaller, lets see 1H, it has create a correction and some support at 1.0152, then this should be it. If, that support holds at Asia at Monday morning when I will join the price should be above and not below for me to think that it will not fall toward the lows if, these are alive yet. So Asia will play a big role here to it for me to think to go up.
The pivots worked very well in this sideways market and I believe they should play again, but watch the momentum, if it is sustainable and there is a rumor that holds to the price then exit quick, you want to save as much pips as you can for the next trade. Remember the word cost, it must be cheap to make money.
4H Chart with 200 MA and weekly S/R
So, we may see the same range play again and maybe lower, but a fail in US CPI numbers this week may help it rise above 1.0325.
Have a great rest of the day and weekend!
Now as if, it is going to stay above the Monday is easy, I change timeframe to a smaller, lets see 1H, it has create a correction and some support at 1.0152, then this should be it. If, that support holds at Asia at Monday morning when I will join the price should be above and not below for me to think that it will not fall toward the lows if, these are alive yet. So Asia will play a big role here to it for me to think to go up.
The pivots worked very well in this sideways market and I believe they should play again, but watch the momentum, if it is sustainable and there is a rumor that holds to the price then exit quick, you want to save as much pips as you can for the next trade. Remember the word cost, it must be cheap to make money.
4H Chart with 200 MA and weekly S/R
So, we may see the same range play again and maybe lower, but a fail in US CPI numbers this week may help it rise above 1.0325.
Have a great rest of the day and weekend!
Feels right this time!
- Post #153,750
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- Aug 6, 2022 10:42am Aug 6, 2022 10:42am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,389 Posts
Rangebound for a while now. Maybe CPI (Weds), PPI (Thurs) coming week might break it out one way or the other:-
- Post #153,751
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- Aug 6, 2022 1:58pm Aug 6, 2022 1:58pm
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Member | 3,498 Posts | Online Now
- Post #153,752
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- Aug 7, 2022 12:37am Aug 7, 2022 12:37am
- | Joined Feb 2022 | Status: Member | 132 Posts
{quote} Simple clean charts tells you more than a thousand words/lines{image}
More confusing: It's heavily static, where are the dynamics and precision ?
- Post #153,753
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- Edited at 6:22am Aug 7, 2022 1:14am | Edited at 6:22am
I would be careful with too much bullish expectations. This week’s BLS and the next week CPI will set a solid tone that Powell will continue to raise rates in September at least 0.5%, and 0.75% expectation is building up.
Europe is struggling on many ends and raised its interest rate by 0.5% to -> 0%!!! For everyone who is overly bullish that has to sink in.
Considering this I am expecting the next wave down. We had some double top (better to see in the weekly chart). For the time being - I mean next week - I see parity area as a target and after that possibly lower.
Further, I feel we are getting closer to the point that we clearly see a substantial paradigm shift. What I mean is... the (US) stocks are up and the dollar is also up. The last time I remember this behavior was in the end of the 90th. At that time it was the internet frenzy, but additionally it was something similar that I am observing now. The strong dollar (+ high FED interest) is crashing 3rd world economies that took dollar dominated loans -> which will make the smart money of these countries fleeing into the -> US dollar. Whereas the dollar gets more stronger, crashes the next country, where their smart money flees into the US dollar again… and so on.
Then the asset managers of other 1st world countries that suffer from the strong dollar too see that as value preserving trade and… -> move into the US dollar (dominated assets). That was during the end 90th… I remember LTCM, the fall of the Asian Tigers, Russia default, Tequila crisis… and so on and I see the same game is building up again.
And where was the EUR at that time? -> 0.9 to 0.82 and that with fully functioning economy in Germany based on Putin’s gas!
Saying this, I think we are just on the beginning of this trend and I see for the DXY in the next year 125+- (and EUR @ 0.88+-) and possibly more. So long swing traders be careful with your bullish feelings.
Europe is struggling on many ends and raised its interest rate by 0.5% to -> 0%!!! For everyone who is overly bullish that has to sink in.
Considering this I am expecting the next wave down. We had some double top (better to see in the weekly chart). For the time being - I mean next week - I see parity area as a target and after that possibly lower.
Then the asset managers of other 1st world countries that suffer from the strong dollar too see that as value preserving trade and… -> move into the US dollar (dominated assets). That was during the end 90th… I remember LTCM, the fall of the Asian Tigers, Russia default, Tequila crisis… and so on and I see the same game is building up again.
And where was the EUR at that time? -> 0.9 to 0.82 and that with fully functioning economy in Germany based on Putin’s gas!
Saying this, I think we are just on the beginning of this trend and I see for the DXY in the next year 125+- (and EUR @ 0.88+-) and possibly more. So long swing traders be careful with your bullish feelings.
- Post #153,754
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- Aug 7, 2022 3:29am Aug 7, 2022 3:29am
- Joined Jun 2016 | Status: "Through Playing Down Graphs" | 4,301 Posts
{quote} Likely to be a gap down to 1.0150 and then move to 1.0180.
Feels right this time!
- Post #153,755
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- Aug 7, 2022 5:35am Aug 7, 2022 5:35am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Member | 3,498 Posts | Online Now
- Post #153,756
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- Aug 7, 2022 5:45am Aug 7, 2022 5:45am
- Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Member | 1,006 Posts
Another day, another dollar.
- Post #153,757
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- Aug 7, 2022 5:50am Aug 7, 2022 5:50am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Member | 3,498 Posts | Online Now
- Post #153,759
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- Aug 7, 2022 6:35am Aug 7, 2022 6:35am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Member | 3,498 Posts | Online Now
- Post #153,760
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- Aug 7, 2022 7:29am Aug 7, 2022 7:29am
{quote} I posted this last month, coulple of weeks ago. I think this is the one in the making and You are referring too. {image}
That will then match with the New German Winter... and when the new government of the gas deprived Italians (because the German politicians need a warm home) will declare Italexit.