NFP release and market reaction

Good evening,

what i ask myself actually is , why do US indices start again to move to the upside, after those good NFP data with the fear of higher interest, what crashes normally equities down...

Any opinions concerning this situation?

I asked myself the same question this morning when I saw the gbp/usd and the gbp/jpy go in opposite ways and here's the opinion I came up with economically after we sat in the office trying to figure out which way things would go based on good numbers and based on bad numbers:

The gbp/usd went down because the dollar strengthened off of the non-farm payroll numbers going up; anticipating what you said about higher interest rates (going up faster than the gbp interest rates). Traders seek yield and the usd will be higher due to higher interest rates.

However, the gbp/jpy went up because risk was on and people didn't need the "safety" of the jpy as much so they bought riskier assets like the gbp against the jpy.

The usd/jpy got the double hit of the usd going up due to higher potential for increased interest rates AND people putting on risk and not needing the jpy as much for "safety".

Markets hate uncertainty and companies have had a lot of time to adjust to the higher interest rates so the downside of higher rates is already baked into the price of stocks. Stocks generally reversed July 14 so this was just a continuation of that reversal.

We look at news as ONLY a catalyst for the markets to move and we don't care what the numbers are. We mostly care what the trend is and where supply/demand on the larger timeframes are and whether price has been driven down or up into the news and supply/demand. We trade news 6 ways: 1 - several days before as big$ positions for the news 2 - a day up to several hours before the news as price comes back due to prop firm traders get flat/get out before the news to lock in profits 3 - going back in the original direction after the prop firms have gotten out and given you a better price coming into the news 4 - a couple minutes before the news (two ways to play it: go with the direction of sentiment at a 15 min or 1 hour supply/demand box or set limit orders with sentiment at 1 hour supply/demand boxes. 5 - seconds after the news (rarely goes well due to whiplash and sudden fear) 6 - around a half hour after the news when price comes back to and tests the moving average on the 15 min chart (you miss the whiplash)
Which of these 6 "news trades" do you want to participate in? I've done all of them and #5 doesn't work consistently. the biggest moves in order of lowest risk are 1, 2 and 3.

All of that aside, there is evidence from an International Forensic Auditor/Accountant that shows the non-farm payroll numbers are fake:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/202...ate-declining/

Hi CashBox,
I'm trying to figure out this situation with GBPUSD on 3.08. I was looking for an entry short right after price moved below that level, but I've always in cases like this waited for the data release. But, as I anticipated, spread increase caused by the data made it impossible to enter, because the risk/reward is destroyed.

I was thinking if it's sensible at all to enter the market a couple minutes before data release, and here you write exactly about the same tactic. Could you point me to a direction here how can I make this work? I mean what conditions could be sensible for such a setup, is the sentiment at 15m/1h enough? And where do you get the sentiment data?

I would very much appreciate your guidance

Interesting trading approach - beside that if someone looks at the latest official NFP numbers, the lousy forecast, and funny experts who said some hours before the release that there is high propability the numbers will be worse ( more down) than the forecast, it's clear that there is something fishy with those official numbers. and all the circumstances...

Yeah it's like CPLie numbers or inflation which is already recession, but everyone are silent and trying to falsify everything

Those kind of news are used as an excuse to move the market: Push it up or down or retrace the price to a key level they want.
This explains why as soon as the clock hits the news' release time, it starts to move.
How possible they could react to the the released numbers in like milliseconds? The answer could be robots or they already know the numbers before the release time but i don't think these are the case.

Sometimes you can see 1-5 mins before the release what they are going to do but there is no reason - in my opinion - to stress you so much. If you want to take advantage of these situations you could either:
1) Wait for the price to "stabilize" a bit and then enter in the same direction of the push, after a small retracement.
2) Sometimes these push create a imbalance in the market and after the impulsive moves, price goes back to where the push started to "refill the gap".

In few words, no need to wonder why these moves happens and instead wait and see what the markets tells what it is going to do.

P.S. This is valid for preset news like NFP,CPI, etc... and i'd say only for retail traders. If you work with a broker,bank,big hedge funds then the approach can be different.

Jojofx: the method number 1) you mentioned is the one which gave me until now the best results, to your info that hedge funds and banks work different it would be interesting who are the people who know in advance the released numbers? They seem to be multi-millionaires...and also their friends and people to whom they sell the numbers (inofficial)....

I can't be sure of this because i never had the chance to work in a bank or hedge fund but i believe they have access or they pay for some informations than normally retail traders don't.

But again, even though those information could be a big help you don't really need those to be successful. You take advantage of the market when it clearly saying to you what is it going to do. Price action is king.

A very good day to you all

I am a budding trader with 5years of experience. 3 years going nowhere jumping from system to system. then 2 years of constant trading experience. profitable in first full year of demo. Now on my first live year, profitable thus far too.
I am looking to engage with fellow members, in order to get my full membership before starting a thread.

I find this topic very interesting.

Personal opinion is that all high impact news events are simply reasons to move the market in ways that may not seem coherent to the news release itself.

Do a backtest to see how the USDX moved after favourable/non-favourable NFP releases. You'll see that it almost never moves along with the news. It seems to have a life of its own independent of news releases.

Another key news event is FOMC. watch how price moves and see that it just injects volatility into the marketplace without definite direction.

Hello guys,
please forgive me if you feel this might not be the right thread for my question but as it is about NFP release: Do you know where / how exactly the new NFP data is first released? Is it on the website of the bureau of labor statistics (bls.gov) or is there any other official channel?
This information would be very helpful if you want to trade the early phases after the release.
Thanks, Werner