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Using volume to predict price movements

  • #101
  • May 26, 2022 4:31pm May 26, 2022 4:31pm
Thank you Lekkim for the tmpl. I just compare fast EU with some trades that I would take based on my approach with my tmpl. ANd when compared with your tmpl. this can be a real booster or can be traded on its own, we`ll see. I would only take the first and last trade then.We`ll see,we`ll see ...Thanks again
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Make your own rules and stick to it.
  • #102
  • May 31, 2022 5:57pm May 31, 2022 5:57pm
Quoting Lekkim
{quote} Yes it's unreliable, that's why it's taken me years to find solid data. There are different kind of volume data available, easiest one to compile from is from your broker of retail clients in metatrader.
Very true Lekkim, Ten different brokers are going to have ten versions of data so common sense would suggest use the one we are going to trade with.
  • #103
  • Jun 8, 2022 12:43pm Jun 8, 2022 12:43pm
Some intraday trades I made today
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  • #104
  • Jun 8, 2022 1:05pm Jun 8, 2022 1:05pm
Jpy weakness and how volume gave insights: Notice volume constantly not accepting surging and shorting it a lot. The surrender of short was painful (short squeeze)
Attached jpy pairs, volume lagging behind price on most, retail traders been bleeding on this. Charts show price/volume since start of year 2022.
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  • #105
  • Jun 8, 2022 7:06pm Jun 8, 2022 7:06pm
Quoting Lekkim
Jpy weakness and how volume gave insights: Notice volume constantly not accepting surging and shorting it a lot. The surrender of short was painful (short squeeze) Attached jpy pairs, volume lagging behind price on most, retail traders been bleeding on this. Charts show price/volume since start of year 2022. {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hey LEKKIM! Thanks for the indicator. I am wondering if there is a working strategy that I can apply with this indicator that you have personally found profitable?? thanks again
  • #106
  • Jun 9, 2022 7:42am Jun 9, 2022 7:42am
Quoting Bigballer12
{quote} Hey LEKKIM! Thanks for the indicator. I am wondering if there is a working strategy that I can apply with this indicator that you have personally found profitable?? thanks again
Hey Bigballer12! Sharing is caring, right? Hehe it's the best indicator for volume imo, and I've gone through testing them all. You can use in combination with all of your own strategies. I have some other trading rules I apply when using this method. But primarily this is my favorite and almost all I look at on a daily basis. Good luck
A great advice is try comparing many time frames to find the best entries, but it's time consuming. I think this is an edge, at least 60/40% in profitable trades using my strategy explained here in thread. Maybe other traders can make it even better.
  • #107
  • Jun 9, 2022 8:03am Jun 9, 2022 8:03am
I started new demo with yesterdays posted trades. I've continued this today and will share if I keep being consistently profitable. Hope this is it, forex market the hardest challenge, but soon we will harvest our treasures.
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  • #108
  • Jul 11, 2022 6:01am Jul 11, 2022 6:01am
Indicator links became dead and I've updated frontpage/first post with new links for download.
How are you traders? What's your thought on this method? Would like to hear some feedback.
I've myself been on vacation but real traders just always have their mind on the markets right, haha
Did you manage to find a profitable use of this? Feel free to share criticism also, best wishes, Lekkim
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  • #109
  • Edited 4:33pm Jul 16, 2022 4:03pm | Edited 4:33pm
Since the indicator is protected and therefore very difficult to modify, I read the buffer values and plotted them separately in python (fig1).
I'm still having problems reading in more data (I will work on that) ... so the following charts are only with 1500 bars (about one day). So you see the 1-minute chart from Friday.

Since fig1 looks very messy, I combined the price data and divided them by two so that we get the mean.
I did the same for the volume data (look fig2).

Lekkim said in post1:
'What makes the best trade entries?
Red price trades: Red pulls/drags away from green, being more volatile and making gap. The bigger the ratio and length of difference, the higher probability.
Green volume trades: Green pulls/drags away from red, being more volatile and making gap. The bigger the ratio and length of difference, the higher probability.'

But what is a good distance? When do we buy/sell?
Something like Bollinger Bands immediately came to mind.
Basically you just look at the mean and the standard deviation.

I plotted a kind of bollinger bands on the volume data (mean: 200, std: 200), which you can see in fig3.
I don't know if it's a good idea to refer to the volume data or if it's better to do it with the mean of price and volume data.

In fig4 I plotted a simple moving average (period 200) on the mean ( volume + price /2).

If any of you have an idea, I'll code it and post it here.
Be creative!

In the meantime I'll take care of getting more data.
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  • #110
  • Edited 9:12am Jul 18, 2022 8:54am | Edited 9:12am
Testing on demo again, posting some intraday scalping, here aud/cad today m1 data
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  • #111
  • Jul 18, 2022 9:14am Jul 18, 2022 9:14am
Eur/usd chart year to date 2022 on daily/D1
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  • #112
  • Jul 18, 2022 11:36am Jul 18, 2022 11:36am
Quoting Lekkim
Testing on demo again, posting some intraday scalping, here aud/cad today m1 data {image}
Here is my AUDCAD chart from today(m1).
Instead of Bollinger bands, I used ATR today.
I build a lower channel to measure when Volume is below ATR14(0.5).

Conditions for buys were:

  1. volume below price
  2. volume below ATR low
  3. price below mean
  4. take profit: Volume is back at mean

worked fine today

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  • #113
  • Jul 18, 2022 12:16pm Jul 18, 2022 12:16pm
Quoting Zookeeper85
{quote} Here is my AUDCAD chart from today(m1). Instead of Bollinger bands, I used ATR today. I build a lower channel to measure when Volume is below ATR14(0.5). Conditions for buys were: volume below price volume below ATR low price below mean take profit: Volume is back at mean worked fine today {image}
I agree with choice of currency pair because I tried to pick from oversold and overbought area but all based on PA. I have never done trading on base of volume. In my opinion , this pair is best to trade high and lows because both currencies are strong. Both are correlated when trading against JPY and both are equally strong currencies and non US pair. For me these are characteristics to trade on rebound.

I will follow this thread to enhance my knowledge on volume.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #114
  • Jul 19, 2022 11:18am Jul 19, 2022 11:18am
Quoting Zookeeper85
Since the indicator is protected and therefore very difficult to modify, I read the buffer values and plotted them separately in python (fig1). I'm still having problems reading in more data (I will work on that) ... so the following charts are only with 1500 bars (about one day). So you see the 1-minute chart from Friday. Since fig1 looks very messy, I combined the price data and divided them by two so that we get the mean. I did the same for the volume data (look fig2). Lekkim said in post1: 'What makes the best trade entries? Red price trades:...

Very nice Zookeeper,I suppose then that patience is the key...On 13th July EJ was a perfect setup, the blue channel that i am using is ema200 with lvls 300 -300...Black line ema 1440, and we got volume drop but the price continues up...What do you think?
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Make your own rules and stick to it.
  • #115
  • Jul 19, 2022 2:30pm Jul 19, 2022 2:30pm
Quoting charli86
{quote} Very nice Zookeeper,I suppose then that patience is the key...On 13th July EJ was a perfect setup, the blue channel that i am using is ema200 with lvls 300 -300...Black line ema 1440, and we got volume drop but the price continues up...What do you think? {image}
Hi Charli,

What I saw is that volume drops often means a continuation in the 'right direction'.
In other words: You might see an uptrend (price making new highs) and then price drops with relatively low volume..
This is exactly what happened on EJ on July 13th... The volume drop happened right after a new high of the day was formed.

Here is the same chart plotted in python.
I added a simple ma(200) on volume, so you can better see when volume is above average and when below.

You could have measured strength with bollinger bands, atr or any other indicator you like instead of MA...
But the idea remains the same:

In case of an uptrend, buy when volume is low and vice versa for sells...
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  • #116
  • Jul 19, 2022 3:38pm Jul 19, 2022 3:38pm
hey men.
Good job very interesting.
Please continue to investigate the matter
  • #117
  • Jul 19, 2022 6:46pm Jul 19, 2022 6:46pm
[quote = Lekkim; 14069958] Biểu đồ eur / usd từ năm đến 2022 vào daily / D1 {image} [/ quote]
@Lekkim
Do you know when you can share your volume indicator with us?
2
  • #118
  • Jul 20, 2022 3:28pm Jul 20, 2022 3:28pm
Good to see that some people are trying to develop volume trading. Good luck men!
  • #119
  • Jul 21, 2022 12:19pm Jul 21, 2022 12:19pm
I played around with the 'Cumulative Delta MT5' indicator a bit today.

Remember that the indicator will readjust with the settings in the template.
The indicator author wrote: 'By default, the initial reference point is the very first candle from the left border of the chart window. The reference point can be changed using the BarsLimit input variable.'

So if you move back and forth in the chart, the values in the indicator window will change.
The problem is solved with the Bars-limit option. The values are static then because the starting point is set.

I read something like 'the greater the distance, the more profitable the trade becomes' in another thread.
That reminded me of Lekkim's idea.

Here is a EURJPY chart again.

This time, the distance between volume and price (a-b) is displayed at the top, additionally I've added Bollinger bands.

Distance on upper bands means = difference between volume & price is big vice versa
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  • #120
  • Jul 21, 2022 12:28pm Jul 21, 2022 12:28pm
in mt4

volume is number of ticks per bar

its just like watching any machine vibrating
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