Sometimes yo can forecast were price should go
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- #41
- Jun 18, 2022 8:11pm Jun 18, 2022 8:11pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,372 Posts
- #42
- Edited 6:15am Jun 19, 2022 4:56am | Edited 6:15am
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Trader/Coder | 1,929 Posts
Observer effect
- #43
- Jun 19, 2022 7:15am Jun 19, 2022 7:15am
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,372 Posts
{quote} When you have words "sometimes" and "forecast" in one sentence then it is not a trading, it called gambling. Drawing lines and thinking that price will hit it called magical thinking (in medicine it is mental disorder). {quote} Also looking for that chart I can identify that it was rain somewhere in Norway yesterday. And that elephants went to drink some water in Africa. There are no data on your chart to make statement that volume came to the market. But I forgot that you have special abilities and you are not like average human - you can...
i Cnt see volume
{quote} Surgeons also usually operate with their eyes closed and use hospital averages. Who cares that this particular patient weighs 200 kg, because the average is 78. And his pressure is over 200, and the average is 120. And he is 120yo, but average is 22. Who cares indeed. Then they ask why "78% retails traders lose all their money". The funniest thing is about custom indicators. What you calculate? Buys - sells using forex fake tick volume? What else you have? What secret sauce you secret custom indicators mix? Forex has no orderflow - you can't...
RD
- #47
- Jul 15, 2022 12:46pm Jul 15, 2022 12:46pm
- Joined Apr 2020 | Status: Trader/Coder | 1,929 Posts
{quote} So what do you suggest is the best way read Forex volume since you debunked everyone's opinion to a fault. RD
But if you are too lazy to check and try new things and can't live with mt4 and your favorite drawing tools then you can buy some real exchange data. I'm using CME data. So you are looking at real volume on CME, but trade with your favorite
Observer effect
Any way to know when the "big hands or smart money” are buying or selling?
smart money I assume you mean institutions?
you could argue that’s when you see accumulation into discounts (compressions, algo pins etc). BUT there are many “instos” out there and where one insto accumulates a position another insto may squeeze them off it.
I think you’ll drive yourself crazy trying to fundamentally trade via options/COT/News analysis. i know I did. Just get charted discounts at correct times (open/close) and trade a maximum of 2 hours. There’s many opportunities within 1 hour on ES (and other large futures liquidity markets)
Any way to know when the "big hands or smart money” are buying or selling?
Smart money - banks, hedge funds, proprietary trading firms and brokers - they need to accumulate a bunchload of open positions to sell later for profit. They have loads of money to flood into market, and they need massive profits to keep themselves alive. But this is disadvantage for them, because if you just flood market with your market and stop orders, you will move the price and alert the rest of participants of what you are doing. In that case everybody would influx the market with their own orders, and then you have no good price levels anymore to open enough positions for yourself.
So, as smart money you need to accumulate your inventory of open positions, and you need to conceal what you are doing from the rest of the market at the same time. Later you sell that inventory to the rest of the market for profit.
S/R trading, analyzing the real orderflow and/or real volume while trading real exchanges like CBOE and CME, trading patterns or price action itself - these are some of the way how to participate on what the smart money are doing. But you can also try to figure out what they are doing while they are doing it.
Below is my though process when I look at charts, trying to figure out what the smart money are doing.
The last picture is how that played out. I had money on the line in sell positions from other reasons, on bad levels, and way too early, and spend nerve-wracking day with two positions deep in red numbers. However smart money decided to play sell, so I actually increased stoplosses way up high, added a position, and rode with them below, because the market has to go south. It was pure luck they came, I could have lost the same amount of pips otherwise.
I am not advocating gambling, wishful thinking, adding to losers, or moving stoplosses at a whim. Smart money leave traces and clues of what they are doing. If you learn to spot the breadcrumbs, you can follow them deep into forest to gingerbread house, munch as much as you like, and run back just in time before the witch come back from eating gullible children.