Hong Kong Tether, Why isn't everyone rich?

Hello there,

Hopefully someone can answer a few questions for me.

First off, would I be correct in assuming that if the Hong Kong Dollar was to untether from the USD, that the USD/HKD pair would skyrocket?

Second, why doesn't everyone just wait until USD/HKD hits the either the upper or lower limit, then put every dime they have into that pair? According to history, its a 100% guarantee that you'll make at least 500 Pips. With the upper and lower limits, you could max out your leverage and make massive gains.

The only thing you wouldn't want to do is to make a trade in the opposite direction that the pair would go if HKD was to release itself from the USD.

What am I missing?

What could be missing include --
1. Is there such thing as a 100% guarantee in trading?
2. How would you determine what the upper and lower limits are?

Go to the charts. USDHKD bounces between 7.75is and 7.85ish. Once it reaches the top, it makes a trip to the center, where it either bounces back to 7.85 or moves on down to 7.75. Then back up etc etc. If you had put bought 50k at max leverage on this pair back in jan 2021, you would be pretty happy right now.

Again, the only wild card is if you were pointing the wrong direction and they removed the tether.

That said, If you were pointing in the RIGHT direction and they removed the tether....oh boy!

Anyone remember this day?

Do you trade this on daily weekly etc? weird my broker vantage shows no swap rates o this but its trading tiome is closed anyways so

Hi mate ! My respectful 2 cents. It just when from 7.75 to 7.85 then back to 7.75. You need many more occurrences of any pattern to consider any trading following a strict set of rules. Usually in the 1000s. you only have it happen a couple of times. Far from being the opportunity you believe you have found. Find a pattern that you can exploit scientifically over 1000s of times and since 2005, and you'll have something to work with. But with your example, I myself regard this idea as pure gambling. The less data you can work with, the higher the risk of failure.

But who am I to judge and what is my advice worth? too little perhaps... If you have not found my points convincing, I hope to learn from you. I am always proud to be proven wrong, so please share your discoveries here for all to learn. I wish you the very best in your work! Cheers!

The head of the HK government just changed as of July 1, 2022. His background is law enforcement and security, not economics or commerce. Given the uncertainty due to the many changes, I would not suggest to myself to do what you called "a 100% guarantee" trade.