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Forex Liquidity and Maximum Lots

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 9, 2022 11:33am Jul 9, 2022 11:33am
So I have a question. This will probably involve the most experienced in the markets.

We know forex liquidity is 6.6 trillion per day. But exactly How much lots can move the market?

For instance, the 6.6 trillion will be matched orders. There could be unmatched bids and offers that will allow say 500 lots more in EURCAD during the London session. Do we have an idea of the percentage of bid and offers that are matched vs unmatched and could this increase the chance of trading larger lot sizes?

Clearly there will be a limit to trades eventually but dividing 6.6 trillion by the number of seconds in a day to determine the reasonable maximum lots per second may not take into account unmatched bids and offers.
  • #2
  • Jul 9, 2022 7:23pm Jul 9, 2022 7:23pm
this question is so stupid that i think this will be the only repply you will have.

The most important thing to know about the markets it's your edge. If you find your edge and you can make profit every month do you think wasting time thinking the amount of lots needed to move is important?

Don't waste your time discussing or thinking who born first, the egg or the chicken. Because the only thing you need it's to know how to get part of the chicken every day for not die by starvation...
  • #3
  • Jul 10, 2022 2:06am Jul 10, 2022 2:06am
Quoting aj20220401
We know forex liquidity is 6.6 trillion per day.
How we know it? Forex brokers never give any meaningful stats. There are no such a thing like audit ever.

Next thing. Even if there are 6.6 trillion per day then how many broker we have? What is the % of the market each have? For example I'm trading with broker X and it has 12%, then 12% of 6.6 trillion is...

Next we must caclulate the % of the asset. If my broker X has X volume and it have 200 assets then volume of asset XAUUSD is X.

And so on. So as for me it is not possible to calculate at all.

For example XAUUSD volume on CME per minute (when LO or NY) is >300 lots (3 mil$). And it is most known and biggest exchange it the world.
So I don't think any ever well known broker have the same amount.

btw for example average volume of BTC on one exchange (not the biggest one) is >2m$ per minute and rize to 5-7mil$ on spikes.
So, for example BTC vol is bigger than GOLD volume on CME for sure. If we sum for example binance, bybit and bitfinex then we can have stable 10+mil$ per minute which are not reachable for CME for sure.

So I think that all that 6.6 billion thing is just a fairy tale.
Observer effect
  • #4
  • Jul 10, 2022 6:57am Jul 10, 2022 6:57am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} How we know it? Forex brokers never give any meaningful stats. There are no such a thing like audit ever. Next thing. Even if there are 6.6 trillion per day then how many broker we have? What is the % of the market each have? For example I'm trading with broker X and it has 12%, then 12% of 6.6 trillion is... Next we must caclulate the % of the asset. If my broker X has X volume and it have 200 assets then volume of asset XAUUSD is X. And so on. So as for me it is not possible to calculate at all. For example XAUUSD volume on CME per minute...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billion_Dollar_Day this documentary followed 24h day in fx market traded with only 3 traders, the volume these guys traded was one billion in 1985.
  • #5
  • Edited 9:09am Jul 10, 2022 8:31am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting Gambis
{quote} https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billion_Dollar_Day this documentary followed 24h day in fx market traded with only 3 traders, the volume these guys traded was one billion in 1985.
I have to repeat my question. That "billion" was traded on ICMarkets? Or on Peperstone? Or 50% of ICMarkets and 50% on Peperstone?

WHERE?

What broker are you using? Why you think that "billion" was traded with your forex broker?
Observer effect
  • #6
  • Jul 10, 2022 11:38am Jul 10, 2022 11:38am
Hells bells there's some confused souls out there. Ryu, you know fx is decentralised right? Interbank does not trade on the CME. And bucketshops are for ... well you know.

OP -to give you a concrete example, Wed 10:30 london, barclays did $1.98 bn short in one hour on eurusd, market moved 19.2 pips so 1 pip was $103mn at the time - 1000 lots per 3 minutes ish. This was on refinitiv, which is about 1/7th of the volumes of spot overall, 1/3rd of interbank. Ebs is the other big venue, similar market share.

Roughly speaking eurusd is $50bn/hour volume across the board but of course you need far less to move the market. And less for other pairs but gives you an idea.
The $6.6 trillion includes swaps options and what not, it's $2trn for spot daily.
  • #7
  • Jul 10, 2022 3:17pm Jul 10, 2022 3:17pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} How we know it? Forex brokers never give any meaningful stats. There are no such a thing like audit ever. Next thing. Even if there are 6.6 trillion per day then how many broker we have? What is the % of the market each have? For example I'm trading with broker X and it has 12%, then 12% of 6.6 trillion is... Next we must caclulate the % of the asset. If my broker X has X volume and it have 200 assets then volume of asset XAUUSD is X. And so on. So as for me it is not possible to calculate at all. For example XAUUSD volume on CME per minute...
I think you are confused as to where this number comes from. Its not only brokers. This 6.6 trillion consists of several things and spot is only one of these, all contributing towards the 6.6 trillion a day. In April, they just launched the 2022 TCBS. The prelim report will be in September and the final report will be published in December, this happens every three years. Ive seen you throw around the term, Forex is a fake market etc...ryuryu, this market is 100 percent real, you are talking about the largest financial market in the world.

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BITCOINS average daily is 25 Billion. (March Figure), took a quick look at CoinMarketcap and average daily is up to 53 Billion.
**I had to look that up, I dont trade BITCOIN so not sure how accurate that is without doing a little more research.

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Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #8
  • Jul 10, 2022 3:59pm Jul 10, 2022 3:59pm
Quoting triphop
Hells bells there's some confused souls out there. Ryu, you know fx is decentralised right? Interbank does not trade on the CME. And bucketshops are for ... well you know. OP -to give you a concrete example, Wed 10:30 london, barclays did $1.98 bn short in one hour on eurusd, market moved 19.2 pips so 1 pip was $103mn at the time - 1000 lots per 3 minutes ish. This was on refinitiv, which is about 1/7th of the volumes of spot overall, 1/3rd of interbank. Ebs is the other big venue, similar market share. Roughly speaking eurusd is $50bn/hour volume...
So what? Where are your 6.6 billion then? OP asked about forex. You are talking about mystique barclays shorts.
Shorts where? Where did they made their short? Who was the counterpart? And how it affect you with your 15$ on average Australian forex broker registered on Caiman Islands?

Next you start talking about swap options and spot. Okay. May be we should multipy that all on all casinos turnover and gambling betting companies too? Why the hell not?

All these "billions" on "decentralized" forex market is total bullshit, fairy tale, nonsense, lie and fake. Market is when buyer meet seller. If there is drawn candles from many sources this is not a market, it is scam.
Observer effect
  • #9
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:02pm Jul 10, 2022 4:02pm
Quoting Goncalo008
this question is so stupid that i think this will be the only repply you will have. The most important thing to know about the markets it's your edge. If you find your edge and you can make profit every month do you think wasting time thinking the amount of lots needed to move is important? Don't waste your time discussing or thinking who born first, the egg or the chicken. Because the only thing you need it's to know how to get part of the chicken every day for not die by starvation...
I appreciate your passion.
No, its not the only reply on this thread.
And yes I stand by my question.
For a forex system with variable lot allocation due to equity size, I want to place an upper limit on the lots I use. I have some idea of an upper cap. I am fishing for alternative ideas out there.
Thanks for your concerns about my edge.
  • #10
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:03pm Jul 10, 2022 4:03pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} I think you are confused as to where this number comes from
I'm not confused. I'm 100% sure that all these "billions" are fake.
And I'm 100% sure that there are no volume on forex brokers. They are cheaters and scammers. Their business works because of positive expectation, because they have advantage against "traders": swap, fee, slippage, fat finger, green, fear and so on.

I repeat again: what if Mercadoan sold many tomatoes? How it affect your EU trade of pepestone?!? The same way how mystique trillions and billions "somewhere" can affect your 15$ trade? Bullshit. Fake.

Anyway there is nothing to discuss: forex has no volume to analyze. That data is not available and can't be calculated. So I don't believe in that fancy charts until I'll see real audited data.
Observer effect
  • #11
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:05pm Jul 10, 2022 4:05pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} How we know it? Forex brokers never give any meaningful stats. There are no such a thing like audit ever. Next thing. Even if there are 6.6 trillion per day then how many broker we have? What is the % of the market each have? For example I'm trading with broker X and it has 12%, then 12% of 6.6 trillion is... Next we must caclulate the % of the asset. If my broker X has X volume and it have 200 assets then volume of asset XAUUSD is X. And so on. So as for me it is not possible to calculate at all. For example XAUUSD volume on CME per minute...
Thanks! Makes alot of sense regarding your response.
It does depend on broker access to market also.
My question also involves how much lots will it take to "walk the order book" in a way that prices begin to jump haphazardly.
Thanks for the response, it gives me alot to think about.
  • #12
  • Jul 10, 2022 4:16pm Jul 10, 2022 4:16pm
Quoting aj20220401
{quote} Thanks! Makes alot of sense regarding your response. It does depend on broker access to market also. My question also involves how much lots will it take to "walk the order book" in a way that prices begin to jump haphazardly. Thanks for the response, it gives me alot to think about.
I'm making this way: I'm taking live CME data and deduct on 100-200.

So if average volume is 800, then 4-8 lots max I can trade. If try more that my MT5 will immediately freeze not allowing me to trade until the conditions will be not in my favor. Tesed many many times. Same scam behaviour every time.
Observer effect
  • #13
  • Jul 10, 2022 5:14pm Jul 10, 2022 5:14pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'm making this way: I'm taking live CME data and deduct on 100-200. So if average volume is 800, then 4-8 lots max I can trade. If try more that my MT5 will immediately freeze not allowing me to trade until the conditions will be not in my favor. Tesed many many times. Same scam behaviour every time.
Very helpful. That was the type of response I was looking for, especially drawing from your experience. Will factor this into my decisions
  • #14
  • Jul 10, 2022 5:38pm Jul 10, 2022 5:38pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} So what? Where are your 6.6 billion then? OP asked about forex. You are talking about mystique barclays shorts. Shorts where? Where did they made their short? Who was the counterpart? And how it affect you with your 15$ on average Australian forex broker registered on Caiman Islands? Next you start talking about swap options and spot. Okay. May be we should multipy that all on all casinos turnover and gambling betting companies too? Why the hell not? All these "billions" on "decentralized" forex market is total bullshit, fairy tale, nonsense,...
So just to sum up, you think tier 1 banks are mystical, you don't understand market making (Zurcher bank took most of the flow not that it matters), you think T&S is irrelevant, you think that banks spend all day trying to take out your account for a bag of peanuts rather than executing the world's biggest trades, you think there's a global liquidity fraud when you get slipped rather than the more obvious broker screwing you via a b-book, you think i've got something to do with an australian bucketshop and you think swaps and options are what... some kind of pokemon terms? you're fully prepared for the retail journey, go get 'em tiger!
  • #15
  • Jul 10, 2022 11:18pm Jul 10, 2022 11:18pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} So just to sum up, you think tier 1 banks are mystical, you don't understand market making (Zurcher bank took most of the flow not that it matters), you think T&S is irrelevant, you think that banks spend all day trying to take out your account for a bag of peanuts rather than executing the world's biggest trades, you think there's a global liquidity fraud when you get slipped rather than the more obvious broker screwing you via a b-book, you think i've got something to do with an australian bucketshop and you think swaps and options are...
I think that all that you wrote is blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blahblah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah blah-blah-blah.

I asked you direct question: how the heck your "tier 1 banks" trade affect my peperstone forex broker trade? Who are the counterpart(s) with my forex trade?

Simple question, but you don't know the answer that's why keep posting all the fairy tales every retail trader already knows about billions, trillions, tier a, market making and other bullshit. In real life everything is much easier. Every forex broker just copy-paste the data from several real exchanges and they just don't care that "trades" made on their platforms must match the counterpart. Because they have positive expectation. But they keep feeding guys like you with "billions and trillions bullshit" to keep your face very serious. Because to steal your money they have to make you believe that you are a part of something BIG.

Keep dreaming!
Observer effect
  • #16
  • Jul 10, 2022 11:52pm Jul 10, 2022 11:52pm
Quoting triphop
OP -to give you a concrete example, Wed 10:30 london, barclays did $1.98 bn short in one hour on eurusd, market moved 19.2 pips so 1 pip was $103mn at the time - 1000 lots per 3 minutes ish. This was on refinitiv, which is about 1/7th of the volumes of spot overall, 1/3rd of interbank. Ebs is the other big venue, similar market share. Roughly speaking eurusd is $50bn/hour volume across the board but of course you need far less to move the market. And less for other pairs but gives you an idea. The $6.6 trillion includes swaps options and what not,...
Guys be peaceful.

That was also very helpful. Likely will need to factor this into maximum lots calculation. Are you on EBS or refinitiv?
  • #17
  • Jul 11, 2022 8:50am Jul 11, 2022 8:50am
Quoting aj20220401
{quote} Guys be peaceful. That was also very helpful. Likely will need to factor this into maximum lots calculation. Are you on EBS or refinitiv?
I'm calm AJ. Not knowing something is fine, but I've got a low tolerance for those deliberately spreading nonsense and doubling down on it but I accept it's a lost cause.

Your lot size limit isn't an issue. If you're with a bucketshop and you're getting slipped, you move to retail ECNs. If you're topping out Interactive Brokers order book, move to Euronext or another institutional ECN. And if you're topping out them, move to matching/ebs where if you get the required credit agreements you can enjoy $1m min trade size and access to billions of liquidity. On an audited order book.

And no, I'm not a bank or pension fund so I don't use matching, but I do use Eikon for the data it provides. But it's not essential no matter what you might hear. Useful sure. But not essential.

digression anyways - good luck in your growth.
  • #18
  • Last Post: Jul 11, 2022 4:54pm Jul 11, 2022 4:54pm
Quoting triphop
{quote} I'm calm AJ. Not knowing something is fine, but I've got a low tolerance for those deliberately spreading nonsense and doubling down on it but I accept it's a lost cause. Your lot size limit isn't an issue. If you're with a bucketshop and you're getting slipped, you move to retail ECNs. If you're topping out Interactive Brokers order book, move to Euronext or another institutional ECN. And if you're topping out them, move to matching/ebs where if you get the required credit agreements you can enjoy $1m min trade size and access to billions...
Very clarifying explanation. Pretty much what I was looking for. Last thing I want is to be responsible for 30% of trading activity of the singapore dollars. One would elicit monitoring and wont expect their authorities to play nice. Anyways jokes aside taking notes and would follow the information you provided.
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