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AUD/USD

  • #107,641
  • Jun 18, 2022 6:08am Jun 18, 2022 6:08am
Quoting Fibonacci.bd
The pair may continue its bearish move. The level of 0.68500 may hold the price as a level of support and push the price towards the upside. A bearish breakout at that level may make the pair go towards the South further.
The zone between 0.6950 and 0.6850 is critically significant area. Technically AUDUSD may look bearish. Fundamentally thought AUDUSD can be pushed up to new heights toward the year end. Six rate hikes are to be performed by RBA. Commodity prices will only go up from here.
But the near term outlook seem bearish for now because of U.S. dollar killing the market currently.
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  • #107,642
  • Jun 18, 2022 7:35am Jun 18, 2022 7:35am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} maybe 0.68 is a possible target in the near-term {image}
Any rallies due to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will likely be sold.

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0.68 is a possible target next week for bears.

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  • #107,643
  • Jun 20, 2022 3:33am Jun 20, 2022 3:33am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} The zone between 0.6950 and 0.6850 is critically significant area. Technically AUDUSD may look bearish. Fundamentally thought AUDUSD can be pushed up to new heights toward the year end. Six rate hikes are to be performed by RBA. Commodity prices will only go up from here. But the near term outlook seem bearish for now because of U.S. dollar killing the market currently.
The yesterday’s close level is 0.6953 (6 o’clock AM CET). In the moment of writing the price is at 0.6983 which is some 30 pips higher than the upper zone level (0.6950) and almost 90 pips higher than the Friday’s low (0.6898). If this penetration proves sustained, it can push up to 0.7070.

RBA will be hawkish tonight but so is FED too. The U.S. dollar is pushing higher and this is the biggest challenge for AUD as it has the potential, but it has to surrender to the US dollar.

Interesting and busy weak ahead.
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  • #107,644
  • Jun 21, 2022 6:18am Jun 21, 2022 6:18am
It couldn't exceed 0.699 earlier.
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,645
  • Jun 22, 2022 5:37am Jun 22, 2022 5:37am
Quoting ForexGoose
It couldn't exceed 0.699 earlier. {image}
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,646
  • Jun 23, 2022 4:32am Jun 23, 2022 4:32am
#AUDUSD / H1
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  • #107,647
  • Jun 23, 2022 6:41am Jun 23, 2022 6:41am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} {image}
waiting for 0.68 to be reached
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,648
  • Jun 23, 2022 10:06pm Jun 23, 2022 10:06pm
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} Rate hikes are usually very carefully calculated in terms of how much profit the banking system should make and how much of a beating the economy can deal with. Too high rents can and will hurt the economy. It is like to cool down the economy. 1. It makes it difficult to get and maintain a loan. This affects everybody (private and public). 2. Building new houses goes down. 3. Purchase new cars goes down. 4. Starting new businesses goes down. etc. etc. and all because the rents are too high. All this slows down the economy and makes the country...

Oh definitely! And thanks for the response. I was mainly confused by why trading wise the pair reversed rather than what it means overall. I spoke to a few other traders and they told me, it's generally because the expected something even more aggressive and when their expectations weren't met.

The other interesting note for traders is although econ analysts and people thought the latest rate hike was aggressive, the market was seemingly underwhelmed by it, cause it to weaken when it should rise.
  • #107,649
  • Jun 24, 2022 5:58pm Jun 24, 2022 5:58pm
higher lows, and respecting for the monthly trend until now , suggesting positive july for australian dollar , if did not close below the monthly trend in the remaining four days in june
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  • #107,650
  • Jul 1, 2022 6:18am Jul 1, 2022 6:18am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} waiting for 0.68 to be reached {image}
looks bearish and below 0.68, it could fall down further to 0.675
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,651
  • Jul 3, 2022 5:09am Jul 3, 2022 5:09am
There is a bullish divergence in H4 TF. It is not confirmed though.
The PA together with both RSI and MACD are forming a bullish divergence which means not much for now until it get confirmed. The confirmation will happen if the price crosses 0.6850 upward (about where the light green circle is) and a H4 bar closes above that price. Until then AUDUSD is still under pressure for more downtrend.

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  • #107,652
  • Jul 3, 2022 12:55pm Jul 3, 2022 12:55pm
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} looks bearish and below 0.68, it could fall down further to 0.675 {image}
I will sell rallies after the RBA.

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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,653
  • Jul 4, 2022 4:32am Jul 4, 2022 4:32am
Quoting NotAtrader
There is a bullish divergence in H4 TF. It is not confirmed though. The PA together with both RSI and MACD are forming a bullish divergence which means not much for now until it get confirmed. The confirmation will happen if the price crosses 0.6850 upward (about where the light green circle is) and a H4 bar closes above that price. Until then AUDUSD is still under pressure for more downtrend. {image}
Just as I said.
And now we need to follow 0.6850 level in H4 TF. If and if a H4 bar closes above this level and the price manage to sustain a position higher than this level for a while, we could be heading to 0.6885 or even 0.6950. From a fundamental prospective we may reach these levels tomorrow after the RBA meeting. However as stated above, the price may fall quickly down and resume the bearish trend quick after the rate hike has taken place.

This is not advice for a trading plan. It is just my view.
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  • #107,654
  • Jul 4, 2022 6:08am Jul 4, 2022 6:08am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} I will sell rallies after the RBA. {image} {image} {image}
placed a sell limit order at a higher level, I could change it before the RBA
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,655
  • Jul 4, 2022 8:37pm Jul 4, 2022 8:37pm
Quoting NotAtrader
There is a bullish divergence in H4 TF. It is not confirmed though. The PA together with both RSI and MACD are forming a bullish divergence which means not much for now until it get confirmed. The confirmation will happen if the price crosses 0.6850 upward (about where the light green circle is) and a H4 bar closes above that price. Until then AUDUSD is still under pressure for more downtrend. {image}
The bullish divergence is now confirmed and AUDUSD is expected to go up 0.695x zone. I guess RBA will contribute to that.
The fundamental picture is also quite bullish for AUD and not so for USD keeping in mind the possibility for tariff cuts on China import to USA.
We still need to wait a couple of hours in order to get answer to these questions.
Trade safe.
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  • #107,656
  • Jul 5, 2022 4:35am Jul 5, 2022 4:35am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} I will sell rallies after the RBA. {image} {image} {image}
0.675 is the next target for bears
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,657
  • Jul 5, 2022 6:13am Jul 5, 2022 6:13am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 0.675 is the next target for bears
It could fall even to 0.6760
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  • #107,658
  • Jul 5, 2022 6:48am Jul 5, 2022 6:48am
Quoting NotAtrader
{quote} It could fall even to 0.6760
0.668 is the next target below 0.675
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
  • #107,659
  • Jul 5, 2022 10:21am Jul 5, 2022 10:21am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 0.668 is the next target below 0.675 {image}
BTW the DXY is at a resistance level from 1. May. 1989. If this level gets broken then the sky is the limit.
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  • #107,660
  • Jul 6, 2022 10:55am Jul 6, 2022 10:55am
Quoting ForexGoose
{quote} 0.668 is the next target below 0.675 {image}
two more hours until the FED minutes...
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