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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,681
  • May 26, 2022 8:27pm May 26, 2022 8:27pm
Quoting Anotan
Wondering if today UJ will end up being a longer term bullish shakeout. UJ M15 During London there was a very violent down move, which price tested out and pushed up on increasing volume which I think could be buying interest. Just have to be careful of resistance at 127.2x {image} Plus there was a HV down move which sent price up on May 24th. {image}
Not looking great for UJ bulls, price is struggling with 127.16, about 70% of the trade is already closed.
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  • #35,682
  • May 27, 2022 4:08am May 27, 2022 4:08am
I'm trying to move to more of PA based trading instead of relying so heavily on HVC S/R trading. Which I'll be the first admit there are a number of people here who are better at reading PA than I am.

Couple of trades today. EJ Long.

Potential selling came into the market during the Asian session, price dropped below the selling on noticeably low volume. Went long and exited due to price stalling at the close of the selling. Should have reversed my position after exiting but I'm not great at being a liquid trader.
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ECad trades, first I went long with low volume below selling, same as the EJ trade. High volume came in and I weathered the storm to see the results. After everything was said and done, there price rejected higher prices with a widespread down bar and I closed and reversed my position. I closed a bit early due to price pushing down on low volume. Not the best trade, I lost 10 pips on the longs and gained 20 pips on the shorts.

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  • #35,683
  • May 30, 2022 8:17am May 30, 2022 8:17am
Nice volume today on UJ, considering today was an US Holiday.

Bar A- After a selling climax you want to see low volume down bars and increasing volume on up bars. Bar A the volume is a little high, but considering the spread on this bar the volume seems low-ish. If professionals were selling on this bar you would think that the volume would be much higher, so its more likely retail were the ones busy selling on this bar.

Bar B - No Supply, my entry was a little early due to seeing the positive reaction to this bar.

Bars C - High volume mark up showing buying interest. These are the high volume up bars you want to see after an accumulation phase.

Bar D - Low risk No Supply, ideal entry after the high volume mark up.

Bar E - Absorption bar I'm assuming. I didn't like the volume on this bar was higher than the initial climatic volume. I took some partials here, markets can do anything so protect yourself when possible.
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  • #35,684
  • Edited Jun 2, 2022 12:31am Jun 1, 2022 11:54pm | Edited Jun 2, 2022 12:31am
So I did something stupid yesterday.

I knew that UJ is in a raging up trend but decided to short it anyways, I thought that UJ wanted to drop down to 128.75 and retest the close of the weak bar from 03:00.

What I thought I saw was price tag the high the up thrust on low-ish volume, which on the next bar it tested out the close of the UT and I closed 1/2 my position and held the other 1/2 until I closed it for a loss after seeing the high volume markup.

What I ended up taking away from this is that on weakness its more important to see how volume reacts to the low rather than how it reacts to the high.

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AJ basically did the same today. Price came down to low of the potential strength and tested on lowish volume (ok the volume isn't really lowish, I just wanted to show an example for strength) only to come up and reject the daily open to push lower. For me here there isn't a trade without seeing how volume reacted to the high of the potential buying.

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  • #35,685
  • Jun 2, 2022 10:29am Jun 2, 2022 10:29am
Interesting day.

Earlier in the day there wasn't any climatic volume worth looking at, but started watching with the ADP news coming up. Looking back at yesterday with the climatic down bar and as price was approaching the high of it, volume started ramping up.

I'll admit before, I would have only seen today's PA and volume and thought weakness but seeing the context that volume was steadily increasing as we approached resistance it made sense that professionals were interested in absorbing the sell orders that were coming in. Following the flow of volume, if price is making a move on high volume that move is likely to continue, on the other side if a move is being made on low volume then its likely to be short lived, not counting climatic volume of course.

I entered in too early, once I figured out what was happening I was buying a M5 as price was dropping.
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  • #35,686
  • Jun 6, 2022 11:12am Jun 6, 2022 11:12am
Quoting Anotan
Interesting day. Earlier in the day there wasn't any climatic volume worth looking at, but started watching with the ADP news coming up. Looking back at yesterday with the climatic down bar and as price was approaching the high of it, volume started ramping up. I'll admit before, I would have only seen today's PA and volume and thought weakness but seeing the context that volume was steadily increasing as we approached resistance it made sense that professionals were interested in absorbing the sell orders that were coming in. Following the flow...
hi Anotan can you share with me candle indicator and template?
thank
  • #35,687
  • Jun 6, 2022 9:44pm Jun 6, 2022 9:44pm
Quoting cadap72509
{quote} hi Anotan can you share with me candle indicator and template? thank
The paperclip icon at the top of the page is amazing. Its right next to the thread subscribe button. By clicking on it, you can find every indicator and template thats been posted to a thread.

But here you go.
  • #35,688
  • Jun 15, 2022 1:09pm Jun 15, 2022 1:09pm
Bump.

I dropped the ball on the exit. I got spooked with the bar before my exit. Volume was higher than the climatic bar and looked bullish. I forgot the golden rule of VSA, the background doesn't simply disappear.
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  • #35,689
  • Jun 15, 2022 4:31pm Jun 15, 2022 4:31pm
As much as I think Bitcoin is overrated, there appears to be accumulation taking place at the moment. It is expelling much more energy but failing to reach the same pullback levels as the prior thrust lower. Also, the VSA is showing effort w/ no results today:

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  1. Stopping Volume entered the market. Not enough to immediately turn price around, but someone is buying
  2. Extensive push lower with above average volume. The bar is wider than #1 but the volume is less... Divergence?
  3. Closing off the lows with a decrease in volume. Changing sentiment?
  4. Less than half the size of #2, but 2x the volume. Accumulation perhaps?

I'm still workshopping my entries so I will wait to see a HL on the daily before I enter. I wouldn't be surprised if it went gangbusters tomorrow/Friday tho

  • #35,690
  • Jun 15, 2022 8:57pm Jun 15, 2022 8:57pm
Quick GBP scalp:

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1. Wide spread UP bar on increasing volume that closes of its high. This is Supply. Note that the bottom of the Trigger Matrix is acting as resistance.

2. This interval is DOWN, confirming the Supply on the previous candle. Looking closer at this interval, we see a decreasing range bar that makes a higher high and then closes near the bottom of its range on volume less than the previous two intervals.. Since this makes a higher high, this is No Demand.

3-5. Full Time Frame Continuity. Price is trading below the Weekly, Daily and 60 Min opens.

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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #35,691
  • Jun 15, 2022 10:04pm Jun 15, 2022 10:04pm
Quoting Macallik
As much as I think Bitcoin is overrated, there appears to be accumulation taking place at the moment. It is expelling much more energy but failing to reach the same pullback levels as the prior thrust lower. Also, the VSA is showing effort w/ no results today: {image} Stopping Volume entered the market. Not enough to immediately turn price around, but someone is buying Extensive push lower with above average volume. The bar is wider than #1 but the volume is less... Divergence? Closing off the lows with a decrease in volume. Changing sentiment?...
It is looking bullish, but I would be a bit skeptical at this point.

BTC found climatic volume on May 12th, bar 2 marked through the lows on high volume which is potential selling interest. Really the 3 bar reversal from May 30-June 1st would've been a great place to short, there was no buying interest as price tried to rally above the bullish climatic volume.

At this point I would be sitting on my hands waiting to see how price reacts to the high of bar 2, if price marks through bar 2 on increasing volume then find a low volume down bar and enjoy the ride up.
  • #35,692
  • Jun 15, 2022 10:41pm Jun 15, 2022 10:41pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Quick GBP scalp....
I hope you don't mind me commenting on your chart, but IMO this really is the perfect trade. As Tom would say, if you're writing a book this is the trade you show.

Potential bullish climatic action appears , which HG fib'd. The up bar that tries to push through the high on the climatic action is on very low volume, with such low volume its obvious that no professional money was willing to take price up. Which I admit price does rally a bit, but its a small rally none the less.

As price approaches the low of the climatic volume, professional volume suddenly appears pushing price below the low of the climatic action. Seems professionals are interested in lower prices to which HG sells the pullback.
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  • #35,693
  • Jun 16, 2022 1:32am Jun 16, 2022 1:32am
Everyone's have their own approach, which works for them, so one more opinion using futures data.
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In given example no interest was made looking at volume, nor delta, so looking before that.
Wide spread up bar with high volume, high delta = aggressive buys, result = down. buyers trapped. CVD makes divergence, buyers absorbed.
1. Price confirms weakness when it drifts down out of high delta candle, with negative delta and price continues to go down. Wait for retrace and enter on any criteria you wish, I use S/R flip, so in marked square position would be opened with SL above delta zone.
I was asleep and don't trade Asia session, so all is in hindsight.

PS. Bolded square reflect other position that is not relevant to this example.
  • #35,694
  • Jun 16, 2022 2:51am Jun 16, 2022 2:51am
Quoting Gambis
Everyone's have their own approach, which works for them, so one more opinion using futures data. {image} In given example no interest was made looking at volume, nor delta, so looking before that. Wide spread up bar with high volume, high delta = aggressive buys, result = down. buyers trapped. CVD makes divergence, buyers absorbed. 1. Price confirms weakness when it drifts down out of high delta candle, with negative delta and price continues to go down. Wait for retrace and enter on any criteria you wish, I use S/R flip, so in marked square position...
I have a dumb question.

I've never really looked on my own charts with delta, which I understand as the difference between buy and sell orders. So are there times when you will see climatic volume but delta will be flat or neutral maybe? And I'm guessing you saw there would be a pull back with the low/flat delta at the previous point of support? The 2nd area you circled around 4:00.

I don't really know too much about it, I've only seen RickM and another trader, Autrader I think, talk about it which they both seem to be in trades for a couple of pips.
  • #35,695
  • Jun 16, 2022 4:24am Jun 16, 2022 4:24am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I have a dumb question. I've never really looked on my own charts with delta, which I understand as the difference between buy and sell orders. So are there times when you will see climatic volume but delta will be flat or neutral maybe? And I'm guessing you saw there would be a pull back with the low/flat delta at the previous point of support? The 2nd area you circled around 4:00. I don't really know too much about it, I've only seen RickM and another trader, Autrader I think, talk about it which they both seem to be in trades for a couple...
It happens that delta is neutral, but mostly its dumb money taking positions on extremes or profit taking or stop losses are being injected at market. So delta is showing it.
I did not saw it coming back, but as a system I use is looking for more trap to be laid: late FOMO buys to be in, or MM's making sure buyers are gone, so when price comes back to high delta I look for a trade. With clear stop and clear entry area. Its not a silver bullet, but in right circumstances and area works like a charm.
Second area was just a highlight of HG's high vol candle, witch on futures volume had no significance.
Crypto market is more open, its like wild west over there, you can collect all data:
Yesterdays news with 1 being longs opening and creating high delta candle, shorts squeezed out, 2 - low vol retest(forgot to put up volume, but it was low) into delta area, buyers happy to buy higher prices, shorts dump it again CVD is diverging with price. Then price reverses and squeezes longs, at 3 shorts are seeing it breaking out and jump in, price drifts up again.
Its dumb money game, MM's are hunting them.
Its how you use it, but VSA is great to know as logical tool behind it.
It works on m1 and on higher TF's, but logic have to be sound.
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  • #35,696
  • Jun 16, 2022 6:56am Jun 16, 2022 6:56am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} It is looking bullish, but I would be a bit skeptical at this point. BTC found climatic volume on May 12th, bar 2 marked through the lows on high volume which is potential selling interest. Really the 3 bar reversal from May 30-June 1st would've been a great place to short, there was no buying interest as price tried to rally above the bullish climatic volume. At this point I would be sitting on my hands waiting to see how price reacts to the high of bar 2, if price marks through bar 2 on increasing volume then find a low volume down bar...
Ironically when I woke up this AM (CST) and saw that it was down 5%, my first thought was "Ask Anotan what he likely saw in the chart that I may have missed." Thanks as always
  • #35,697
  • Jun 17, 2022 2:59am Jun 17, 2022 2:59am
Quoting helioss
Very nice discussion This is my view on GBPUSD 30min: DOWN SWINGs have BIGGER VOLUME than UP SWINGs, so trend seems to be SHORT {image}
Could you pls share which indi shows this swing volume
  • #35,698
  • Jun 20, 2022 5:19am Jun 20, 2022 5:19am
Going to take a break from posting for a while, not that I post that often anyways. I'll probably pop in the beginning of the week to check calendar events etc.

Either way green pips guys.

AJ Long

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EA Short

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  • #35,699
  • Jun 21, 2022 1:09pm Jun 21, 2022 1:09pm
hai Friends how are you all.....
Learning is a never ending Journey
  • #35,700
  • Jun 21, 2022 1:14pm Jun 21, 2022 1:14pm
Quoting Anotan
Going to take a break from posting for a while, not that I post that often anyways. I'll probably pop in the beginning of the week to check calendar events etc. Either way green pips guys. AJ Long {image} EA Short {image}
I'm brushing my basics by seeing your posts. I have not been open to FF for 3 months. Nice looking at these discussions here.
Learning is a never ending Journey
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