Fundamental/Quantitative analysis

USD

Fed's Powell: We don't know how restrictive we need to be.

Fed's Powell: We want to see progress on inflation in this instance, if we don't see that, we will react.

Fed's Powell: Soon enough, we will see progress on inflation.

Fed's Powell: What is becoming clear, is many factors we don't control will play a large part in if that happens.

Fed's Powell: It is not going to be easy to sustain low unemployment while bringing down inflation.

Fed's Powell: A 4.1% jobless rate seen in 2024 would still be historically low, and a successful outcome.

Fed's Powell: We're not trying to induce a recession.

Fed's Powell: Pathways to 2% inflation have become much more challenging.

Barclays predicts a 50 basis-point Fed hike in July.

UK's Chancellor Sunak is urged to save £57 bln by witholding Bank of England reserves interest - FT.

Biden is to sign an ocean shipping bill into law amid the inflation fight.

Fed's Powell: I think we can get a softish landing, but events have raised the degree of difficulty, We just don't know if we can achieve it.

Fed's Powell: Fluctuations in commodity prices could take the possibility of a softish landing out of our hands.

Forex Pairs Strength

RUB Energy

Russian deputy PM Novak: We will decide further actions within OPEC+ deal by the end of 2022.

Russia’s Deputy PM Novak: Russia’s cooperation with OPEC+ May continue after 2022.

GBP

BoE: Latest fiscal measures could boost GDP by around 0.3%, raise CPI inflation by 0.1% in the first year.

The BoE confirms £3.2 bln of cash flows from redemption of July 2022 gilt will not be reinvested.

6 BoE policymakers vote for 25 bps hike, 3 voted for 50 bps hike.

BoE sees inflation slightly above 11% in October.

BoE sees CPI inflation above 9% over the next few months.

Money markets trim BoE hike bets, price 50 basis-point August increase.

BoE: Raised bank rate because of robust price pressures, tightness of labour market and risk pressures become more persistent.

BoE sees Q2 GDP -0.3% QoQ (May +0.1% QoQ)

Energy

CEO of Gazprom: Clients now want gas contracts with oil-linked prices.

CNY Energy

Russia’s Deputy PM Novak doesn't rule out oil at $150/bbl and higher by the year-end.

Gazprom and China’s CNPC sign technical agreement on gas supplies via far Eastern route.

GBP

Money markets bet on 50% odds of a 75 BPS Bank of England increase by September.

CNY USD

Biden & China’s President Xi may hold a call this summer with tensions high, US officials are working to set up a call after the Sullivan-Yang meeting.

USD

Bank of America strategists estimate the Fed to reduce its balance sheet by $2.6 trillion in assets through 2024: $1.75 trillion in treasuries and $850 billion in MBS.

BTC Fear and Greed Index

Fear and Greed Index

GBP

Deutsche Bank sees back-to-back 50bps hikes from the BoE, updates its call after June’s decision, and now sees 50bp rate hikes in both August and September.

Energy

The House passes a bill aimed at lowering food and fuel costs.

EUR

Italy's PM Draghi: The ECB decision to hike interest rates is inevitable.

Italy's PM Draghi: The ECB interest rate rise bound to be more gradual than in the US.

Forex Pairs Strength

EUR RUB

EU commission recommends Ukraine be granted candidacy status.

EUR

Eurozone CPI May 2022 Full Report.

EUR

ECB's Knot: If inflation worsens, several 50 bps hikes are possible.

USD

Fed's George: I dissented against 75 basis point rate hike because I viewed that move as adding to policy uncertainty simultaneous with the start of balance sheet runoff.

Fed's George: Inflation has shown no meaningful signs of deceleration.

Fed's Kashkari: I supported the 75 bps increase in June, and could support another in July.

Fed's Kashkari: If inflation drifts higher, or supply side does not improve, might need to continue raising rates beyond what currently is forecasted.

CNY RUB

China’s President Xi: China-Russia cooperation is showing good momentum across the board.