EURUSD only

out the short EU at 1.0413

Where everything could end.
DXY 105.50 - 106.70

EU has its ups and downs today!

0418 limit hold and testing previous low! If survive 0397 or few pips down then next chances bounce 0443+. Lets see how this bear leg end !

It looks like some buy orders came in the market today... be carefull with shorts tomorrow

Good observation Zookeeper - look at the 1 hr on the DXY (US $ futures - the driver behind EUR/USD). Since wave 5 is done I would expect
dollar weakness tomorrow.

WHAT????

But the FED is going to raise rates at a MINIMUM of 0.5% and most likely 0.75% making the USD rate 1.75 vs. Euro rate of 0.0% so that means EUR/USD will fall based on the carry trade alone right?

No so fast young padawan. Here's MY thoughts and I would appreciate ANY feedback (negative as well as positive):

Looking at the chart of the DXY is appears TO ME that today the futures market priced in a 0.75% rate hike for tomorrow.


I believe that the markets are expecting not the promised 0.50 but a 0.75 rate increase. If the FED doesn't raise rates by 0.75 I believe that the markets will take back the dollar gains today and that should send EU back up the 105.50 levels at a minimum.

Now what happens if the FED raises rates by 0.5%? It will spook the markets because frankly EVERYONE knows that USA rates will be 3.5-4.0% by years end bringing a nasty recession in 2023. Its already in the tea leaves folks star this post and re-read it on December 31 2022.

But seriously it would be an excuse to tank the stock market AND move lower for that final wave 5 on the EU that we've been waiting for.

Bottom line for me: I'm out of EU until AFTER the FOMC decision. (I'm waiting for the JPY to get some legs i.e. BOJ intervention!!!!!)

Good luck all - what do you think?

I "think"/believe that if today wasn't it tomorrow will be.

I made a purchase 1.0420

Sl 0/0

Tp 10438

I will withdraw Tp, I will let the market run

So correct over 0445 and next signal 0484 for over 0544 to limit play 0627!! Watching breakout 0461 and 0484 if bear kind enough because it may impulse down perhaps below 0461 for new low down and daily tf in favour of bear. So ready for all actions. Lets see

Good morning. Today I'll share a biger timeframe analysis, because of the FOMC meeting late at US session.

If, the FED raises 0.75% today then Dollar should continue its upside. If, not I don't expect much from EU given its Geographical disantvantage with US.

The price may stay inside this channel - 4H graph

Buy the rumor.. sell the fact day... that's why we will see a rise first...

My rally limit until FED data is: 1.0496

Trend has formed, let's look optimistic for me,

Trade at price 1.04672 TP @ 1.04757 -BULLLLLL!

Breaking news: - ECB ad hoc meeting to discuss current market conditions

Looks like, it has to finish the job it started yesterday.

Dropped lower to 1.0400. The second attempt to break through 1.0480 (23.6%) is being prepared. If it break through, then most likely they will correct to 1.0540 (38.2%)... and can be correction up to 1.0630 (61.8%) to the upper border of the descending channel. But the general trend is still downward.

Closed

Good morning, hope you're great. I think the bears might do well today, since we have reached the resistance level, of yesterday's;