Fundamental/Quantitative analysis

India RUB Energy

Russia replaced Saudi Arabia to become India's second biggest oil supplier.

EUR GBP Crypto

BoE Gov. Bailey: Crypto assets have no intrinsic value, this morning we have seen another blow-up in a crypto exchange.

UK introduces bill to override Northern Ireland sections of Brexit agreement.

EU Commission VP Sefcovic: Renegotiating the protocol is unrealistic, and would bring instability.

USD

Morgan Stanley CEO: The chances of recession 50-50 now, but it's unlikely to be a deep or long recession.

97 counterparties take $2.213 tln at the Fed reverse repo operation.

BTC Fear and Greed Index

Fear and Greed Index

USD

Fitch on global economic outlook: We forecast US growth to fall to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024.

GBP

Money markets price 125bps of BoE hikes by September.

Forex Pairs Strength

EUR

ECB's Knot: ECB rates must rise 0.25 pts in Sept if conditions are the same.

Energy

OPEC: World oil demand is to average 100.29 million bpd in 2022, exceeding 2019 pre-pandemic level.

OPEC: Its oil output fell by 176,000 bpd in May to 28.51 million bpd, missing target for increase under OPEC+ deal.

EUR GBP Energy

EU Financial Services Commissioner Designate McGuinness: We ask the UK to come back to the negotiating table.

Israel, EU to sign a natural gas export deal on Wednesday - Israel's energy ministry.

Forex Pairs Strength

Energy

IEA forecasts world oil demand to reach 101.6 mln bpd in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

EUR

ECB's Wunsch: The ECB are very open to stepping in if markets overreact.

ECB's Wunsch: The next 150-200 bps of ECB hikes are no brainers.

CHN RUB

China’s President Xi: China is to support Russia on sovereignty and security.

EUR

Traders pare July ECB hike bets, price 30bps versus 42bps prior.

ECB: Based on this assessment, the governing council decided that it will apply flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio.

ECB: The GC decided to direct the relevant Euro system committees and the ECB services to expedite the design of a new anti-fragmentation mechanism.

ECB's Centeno: Faster monetary policy normalization is a risk that cannot be ruled out.

Turkey rejects NATO offer of talks with Sweden, Finland.

ECB’s Makhlouf: Some have incorrectly taken language that it could be more to mean it's going to be 50 basis points.

ECB’s Makhlouf: It could be 26 bps or it could be 51 bps or whatever.

ECB’s Makhlouf on September interest rate hike: For avoidance of doubt, more means more than 25 basis points.

RUB CNY USD Energy

Putin: Myself and China's Xi agreed to expand cooperation in energy, finance and industry, due to western sanctions.

BTC Fear and Greed Index

Fear and Greed Index

USD

Fed's median view of the Fed funds rate at end-2022 3.4% vs 1.9% in March projection.

Fed forecast shows 2022 growth at 1.7%, down from 2.8% in March.

Five Fed officials forecast rates above 4% in 2023.

Fed median forecast shows 2022 inflation 5.2%, 2023 2.6%.

Fed policymakers' projections show they expect to start cutting rates in 2024.

Fed forecast shows 2022 unemployment 3.7%, 2023 3.9%, `24 4.1%.

Fed Policymakers' projections show they expect to begin reducing rates in 2024.

US rate futures price in 93.4% chance of 75 bps hike in July, and a 55% probability of a 50 bps rise in September after the Fed decision.

Fed swaps price 75 bps rate hike for July, and 140 bps over July/September.

Fed's Powell: We think ongoing increases in interest rates is appropriate.

Fed's Powell: We are in process of significantly reducing our balance sheet.

Fed's Powell: We expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to come into better balance and temper wage gains.

Fed's Powell: We continue to see risks for inflation to the upside.

Fed's Powell: Since the Fed's May meeting, inflation has surprised to upside.

Fed's Powell: Indicators of inflation expectations have risen.

Fed's Powell: Our projections are not a plan, no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be in a year.

Fed's Powell: I do not expect 75 bps moves to be common, but either 50 bps or 75 bps is most likely at next meeting.

Fed's Powell: Further surprises in inflation could be in store.

Fed's Powell: The next meeting could well be a decision between 50 bps and 75 bps.

Fed's Powell: Neutral is generally a range of 3 to 3.5%.

Fed Swaps show that a 75 bp hike is no longer fully priced in for July.

Fed's Powell: We think the longer-run neutral rate is in the mid 2s.

Fed's Powell: Data shows inflation expectations are still in place where short-term inflation high, but comes down sharply over the medium term.

Fed's Powell: We also noticed the Fed's inflation expectations have moved up.