My apologies for a very delayed response. Due to increased time requirements with my day job, I had to put journaling on the back burner. However, getting ready to start documenting again. Best of trading to you.
Good work is the key to good fortune
After have to step away from journaling due to some day job commitments, more time is available now to document my trading.
June 3 - Trade 1
For overall market context, the TPO chart gives the following story. Yesterday was a trend day and ended on highs. The overnight session created a higher high than NY on Thursday, but failed to hold and sold off well below settlement price and back within yesterday's range. At the open, the market was attempting to break the overnight low in the first period and was solidly within yesterdays value area. The question now was will it accept within yesterdays value area or will it look to move back above to confirm the higher prices from yesterday.
On the structure chart, we are correcting the move from yesterday and we have just breached the 50% fib level. Short term control remains with sellers, however the overall longer control is with buyers. Cumulative Delta is solidly down on the day and there is no divergence with price. Again, sellers in short term control.
On the footprint chart, at the open the buyers attempted to take the market higher with a strong candle and very positive delta. However, the sellers took back immediate control engulfed the opening candle with strong delta. The market was also breaking the overnight low and well within yesterday value area. The trade entry was looking to hold yesterday's value area and trade down to the POC from yesterday.
Trade Management / Exit
This one took a little time as the market re-tested the value high from yesterday at the 4142 level. In the BD periods it printed a poor high and could not break the value high from yesterday. Usually, intraday when a poor low/high occurs there is a high probability it will go explore the other side of the range. In this case the E period sold off and broke the initial balance to extend lower. F continued the trend and the footprint chart was continuing to have selling candles hold the trend. Once the G period did not continue and filled in, plus we had a harmonic ABCD completion on the structure chart, decided to exit for 18 points. In addition, the market profile was 3 deep with no single prints and it looked like it may begin to rotate vs. trend.
June 3 - Trade 1
For overall market context, the TPO chart gives the following story. Yesterday was a trend day and ended on highs. The overnight session created a higher high than NY on Thursday, but failed to hold and sold off well below settlement price and back within yesterday's range. At the open, the market was attempting to break the overnight low in the first period and was solidly within yesterdays value area. The question now was will it accept within yesterdays value area or will it look to move back above to confirm the higher prices from yesterday.
On the structure chart, we are correcting the move from yesterday and we have just breached the 50% fib level. Short term control remains with sellers, however the overall longer control is with buyers. Cumulative Delta is solidly down on the day and there is no divergence with price. Again, sellers in short term control.
On the footprint chart, at the open the buyers attempted to take the market higher with a strong candle and very positive delta. However, the sellers took back immediate control engulfed the opening candle with strong delta. The market was also breaking the overnight low and well within yesterday value area. The trade entry was looking to hold yesterday's value area and trade down to the POC from yesterday.
Trade Management / Exit
This one took a little time as the market re-tested the value high from yesterday at the 4142 level. In the BD periods it printed a poor high and could not break the value high from yesterday. Usually, intraday when a poor low/high occurs there is a high probability it will go explore the other side of the range. In this case the E period sold off and broke the initial balance to extend lower. F continued the trend and the footprint chart was continuing to have selling candles hold the trend. Once the G period did not continue and filled in, plus we had a harmonic ABCD completion on the structure chart, decided to exit for 18 points. In addition, the market profile was 3 deep with no single prints and it looked like it may begin to rotate vs. trend.
Good work is the key to good fortune
June 3 - Trade 2
On trade 2 we just exited trade 1 as the market was showing signs of rotation vs. trend. On the TPO chart the FG periods could not extend and make a new low which posted a poor low. Secondly, if we look at the overall range for the day (high of the overnight session) to the current low in NY we have almost reached the ATR of about 100 points. With the signs of rotation and already at full ATR, this looked like a possible counter trend trade where sellers would buy to cover some positions.
On the structure chart, we have completed the harmonic ABCD and started to get some energy for a correction. Cumulative delta is growing to the short side and sellers may be over extended. It also continues to follow price with no divergence. In comparison to the TPO chart, a rotation to the poor high from earlier leads us to a correction of greater than the 78.6% fib, which does leave room to move for the trade.
On the footprint chart, which was the entry chart, the 11:50 downside candle structure was broken by the buyers and everything points to a rally by the buyers. On the entry I am looking for the market to rotate back up above the overnight low and challenge the poor high of the profile, which would be a deep correction (counter trend) on the structure chart. My stop, even if it is hit should the downside trend resume, I am still profitable for the day.
Trade Management / Exit
It took a little simmering, but the market corrected in the H period which created a higher high than the G period. H though J on the TPO continued higher and challenged the upper end of the profile. We also had the footprint chart continuing to hold the positive delta candle trend. As we challenged the upper end of the profit, we also got a large positive delta candle, so I exited with 24 points. These extreme delta candles usually mean buyers/sellers exhaust, then take a pause for the next move down or a reversal happens. We were close enough the value high and upper range to just take profit.
On trade 2 we just exited trade 1 as the market was showing signs of rotation vs. trend. On the TPO chart the FG periods could not extend and make a new low which posted a poor low. Secondly, if we look at the overall range for the day (high of the overnight session) to the current low in NY we have almost reached the ATR of about 100 points. With the signs of rotation and already at full ATR, this looked like a possible counter trend trade where sellers would buy to cover some positions.
On the structure chart, we have completed the harmonic ABCD and started to get some energy for a correction. Cumulative delta is growing to the short side and sellers may be over extended. It also continues to follow price with no divergence. In comparison to the TPO chart, a rotation to the poor high from earlier leads us to a correction of greater than the 78.6% fib, which does leave room to move for the trade.
On the footprint chart, which was the entry chart, the 11:50 downside candle structure was broken by the buyers and everything points to a rally by the buyers. On the entry I am looking for the market to rotate back up above the overnight low and challenge the poor high of the profile, which would be a deep correction (counter trend) on the structure chart. My stop, even if it is hit should the downside trend resume, I am still profitable for the day.
Trade Management / Exit
It took a little simmering, but the market corrected in the H period which created a higher high than the G period. H though J on the TPO continued higher and challenged the upper end of the profile. We also had the footprint chart continuing to hold the positive delta candle trend. As we challenged the upper end of the profit, we also got a large positive delta candle, so I exited with 24 points. These extreme delta candles usually mean buyers/sellers exhaust, then take a pause for the next move down or a reversal happens. We were close enough the value high and upper range to just take profit.
Good work is the key to good fortune
June 10 - Trade 1
Business travel took me out of the markets this week, except for Friday. Market context coming into the day was the big CPI number. It was not the best day to trade as this is one of the main focal points in the US economy, so both a good or bad numbers will produce a volatile day. From the chart below, then overnight session was a tight range with market participants waiting for 8:30 am EST. The CPI data posted an outlier compared to estimates with 1.0% vs. 0.7% expected. With this variance it produced a Trend - Trend event risk pattern. After the cash open at 9:30 on the ES, I missed the second trend opportunity, so I just let the market settle as it was 131 points down vs. an ADR of 98, so it was overextended to the downside.
For the entry of trade one, after the second push down by the market it began to rotate. On the market profile chart, the overnight low was not able to hold the market and liquidity showed up lower as two way trade began. It was overextended and struggled to trend lower putting in poor lows in DE, EF periods. As the session went on the POC was building show a rotational day after the news.
The entry point came as the cumulative delta was continuing to drive more negative, but price was not going any lower. Once we had a strong bar on the delta, it looks like an opportunity for the market to correct. Signals were strong bar delta and the candle engulf the consolidation zone. Entered as the bar produced a low volume imbalance area with a stop below this area.
Trade Management / Exit
The market made a good move up and was just short of my hard target at 3919. Then, on the next bar it produced a similar bar on the negative side, produced a lower low, so I exited with some profit. I was probably a little too early here as the bar did not engulf and the original candle which started the move was still in play with the low volume imbalance area still in tact. However, on these days, the market can turn back quickly, so I was using caution vs. giving it more room.
Business travel took me out of the markets this week, except for Friday. Market context coming into the day was the big CPI number. It was not the best day to trade as this is one of the main focal points in the US economy, so both a good or bad numbers will produce a volatile day. From the chart below, then overnight session was a tight range with market participants waiting for 8:30 am EST. The CPI data posted an outlier compared to estimates with 1.0% vs. 0.7% expected. With this variance it produced a Trend - Trend event risk pattern. After the cash open at 9:30 on the ES, I missed the second trend opportunity, so I just let the market settle as it was 131 points down vs. an ADR of 98, so it was overextended to the downside.
For the entry of trade one, after the second push down by the market it began to rotate. On the market profile chart, the overnight low was not able to hold the market and liquidity showed up lower as two way trade began. It was overextended and struggled to trend lower putting in poor lows in DE, EF periods. As the session went on the POC was building show a rotational day after the news.
The entry point came as the cumulative delta was continuing to drive more negative, but price was not going any lower. Once we had a strong bar on the delta, it looks like an opportunity for the market to correct. Signals were strong bar delta and the candle engulf the consolidation zone. Entered as the bar produced a low volume imbalance area with a stop below this area.
Trade Management / Exit
The market made a good move up and was just short of my hard target at 3919. Then, on the next bar it produced a similar bar on the negative side, produced a lower low, so I exited with some profit. I was probably a little too early here as the bar did not engulf and the original candle which started the move was still in play with the low volume imbalance area still in tact. However, on these days, the market can turn back quickly, so I was using caution vs. giving it more room.
Good work is the key to good fortune
June 10 - Trade 2
For trade 2 we have the same market context and trade continues to be rotational.
Entry point for the second trade was a strong initiative candle with strong bar delta. We are making another attempt from the poor lows to move up toward the top of the profile on an overextended down day. Entered long after the candle and looking for the BD high or perhaps the overnight low.
Trade Management / Exit
The market was moving up to the top of the profile and I decided to put my target just below the overnight low. What ended up happening is the BD is significant resistance and the market reacted with a push down and I was taken out at BE. The stop was appropriate because if we did not make it through 3434 it could have rotated back to the POC, which was significantly lower. If I would have been quick enough, the was a low volume, imbalance zone which would have been a perfect low risk entry, which the market come back to then move the push through the 3434 level up to 3939. I am ok with the BE as I need to protect my first trade and if the market would have moved through 3434 on the first try, then day would have been very good.
For trade 2 we have the same market context and trade continues to be rotational.
Entry point for the second trade was a strong initiative candle with strong bar delta. We are making another attempt from the poor lows to move up toward the top of the profile on an overextended down day. Entered long after the candle and looking for the BD high or perhaps the overnight low.
Trade Management / Exit
The market was moving up to the top of the profile and I decided to put my target just below the overnight low. What ended up happening is the BD is significant resistance and the market reacted with a push down and I was taken out at BE. The stop was appropriate because if we did not make it through 3434 it could have rotated back to the POC, which was significantly lower. If I would have been quick enough, the was a low volume, imbalance zone which would have been a perfect low risk entry, which the market come back to then move the push through the 3434 level up to 3939. I am ok with the BE as I need to protect my first trade and if the market would have moved through 3434 on the first try, then day would have been very good.
Good work is the key to good fortune
June 12 - Trade 1
Overall market context for the 6J is the yen has been extremely weak and trending for all of 2022. From the market profile and 5 minute chart, the last 3-4 sessions the 7476 - 7471 area had been holding as support. As soon as the market opened this evening a strong bearish candle broke through. After this break, we simply were looking for the previous support area to hold as new resistance.
The entry point was confirmed on the footprint chart. Once the market returned to test support, I was looking for sellers to begin absorbing the buying effort coming into the zone, then entered with 2 contracts short. The 6J has about a 75 pip average range, so here in the Asia session I was targeting 15-20 pips and just let me the market tell me when to exit once liquidity from buyers entered the market.
Trade Management / Exit
The base of the initial large candle which spiked lower to begin the session was at 7458. From the entry, the market trended lower with an initiative candle, then consolidation, then another initiative candle with consolidation. Once the market broke below 7458, the buyers appeared and stated to provide liquidity. At that point, I exited the trade for 16 pips. The session trade somewhat lower, but I wasn't looking for a second entry to take the correction, which did occur.
Overall market context for the 6J is the yen has been extremely weak and trending for all of 2022. From the market profile and 5 minute chart, the last 3-4 sessions the 7476 - 7471 area had been holding as support. As soon as the market opened this evening a strong bearish candle broke through. After this break, we simply were looking for the previous support area to hold as new resistance.
The entry point was confirmed on the footprint chart. Once the market returned to test support, I was looking for sellers to begin absorbing the buying effort coming into the zone, then entered with 2 contracts short. The 6J has about a 75 pip average range, so here in the Asia session I was targeting 15-20 pips and just let me the market tell me when to exit once liquidity from buyers entered the market.
Trade Management / Exit
The base of the initial large candle which spiked lower to begin the session was at 7458. From the entry, the market trended lower with an initiative candle, then consolidation, then another initiative candle with consolidation. Once the market broke below 7458, the buyers appeared and stated to provide liquidity. At that point, I exited the trade for 16 pips. The session trade somewhat lower, but I wasn't looking for a second entry to take the correction, which did occur.
Good work is the key to good fortune
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- #32
- Last Post: Dec 26, 2024 11:39am Dec 26, 2024 11:39am
- Joined Jan 2018 | Status: Trader | 17,298 Posts
