Day 3 (of 5) of forward test, trading 4hr session using 15min zz signal.
I am stopping my trading session today here after just 1.5hrs of the scheduled 4hrs, and indeed ending the test period only halfway through the scheduled 5 days. I am satisfied that I now have enough information across the trades I have taken since the test began to at least give me an indication of the likely performance of this potential edge going forward. Although I don't think the trade sample size or duration of trading is representative it is indicative and this morning's trades confirmed that to me, particularly given the other comments/experiences shared in this thread.
First the trades this morning. (although I took some 1min and 5min zz signals I will leave them out as it is primarily the 15min zz signals that this test period concerned. they again added to my pip total but would need a separate representative sample (s) to see if an edge truly existed with these.
0742 eurnzd, sell 6642, stop 6412, tp 6472, result = 1:1 target not achieved -30, (I took +17)
0745 gbpusd buy 2544, stop 2525, tp 2563, result = 1:1 target no achieved, - 19, (I took +10)
0745 chfjpy buy 3196, stop 3183, tp 3210, result = 1:1 tp achieved +14, (I took +5)
NB: Euraud set-up at same time as 0742 eurnzd but was effectively the same trade as irt so didn't take it, it too saw a good score before reversing and taking the stop, so result = 1:1 tp not achieved -22.
0816 gbpnzd, sell 9266, stop 9303, tp 9229, result = 1:1 not achieved -30 (not traded)
NB: gbpaud and gbpcad set up at same time with similar 15min sell signals, both went on to not achieve the 1:1 tp and got stopped @ -30 each.
NB: I used the above 3 signals as a proxy leading indicator and although it hadn't given the 15min signal, I shorted gbpusd and took -15. It then went on to set up as below
0822 gbpusd sell 2536, stop 2566, tp 2506, result = still open re 1:1 target (+6 taken) +24 max at time of writing
0826 gbpaud buy 76523, stop 7623, tp 7683, result = 1:1 tp achieved +30 (+20 taken)
0840 gbpnzd buy 9313, stop 9270, tp 9356, result = 1:1 tp achieved, +47, (+15 taken)
So 9 x 15min signals available in this shorter trading session, and if held for stop or tp with no trade management so far (with one still open and +24 ahead max as I type this,) the total would be -70. My total on these 15min signals was +58pips. I added a further +14 pips on the 1min and 5min signals.
My conclusions from this test
1. It is unclear whether an edge exists just trading the 15min signals with no trade management and just letting them run to stop or tp, I suspect not given a bigger test sample over a longer duration.
2. Re: trade management, are you really going to let a trade that is +20 ahead run to a stopout for a loss? (0742 and 0745 above are good examples of this.) No of course not, so some trade management would be advisable. What is optimum though for this potential edge though, I do not know.
3. It didn't seem to matter whether divergence was present at the swing point (ie under the 15min zz signal/multiigzag indy green buy 1 or red sell 2 symbol,) although as cautioned above this was a smaller sample.
4. The 15min signals that were with the 1hr/4hr direction succeeded just over twice as often as those that were against them.
5. If this test is anything to go by then human intervention/discretion re whether you trade a 15min signal, how you manage the trade if you do, and where you exit are important and it is this that seems to give the profit. There are no hard and fast rules for this and we will each be different.
Total Test Stats for 15min zz signals allowed to run to stop or tp with no trade management:
Total pips achieved +44
Total 15min signals 28
wins @ 1:1 tp 16
Losers @ full stop out 12
Win rate 57% (with one still open.)
Biggest winner +30
Biggest loser -35
Average winner +19.4
Average loser -26.3
LWR: 8 trades
LLR 3 trades
Expectancy/trade = +1.57pips/trade
So a small positive expectancy, but biggest and average losers both greater than biggest and average winners. Not optimum stats for a trading edge.
I am stopping my trading session today here after just 1.5hrs of the scheduled 4hrs, and indeed ending the test period only halfway through the scheduled 5 days. I am satisfied that I now have enough information across the trades I have taken since the test began to at least give me an indication of the likely performance of this potential edge going forward. Although I don't think the trade sample size or duration of trading is representative it is indicative and this morning's trades confirmed that to me, particularly given the other comments/experiences shared in this thread.
First the trades this morning. (although I took some 1min and 5min zz signals I will leave them out as it is primarily the 15min zz signals that this test period concerned. they again added to my pip total but would need a separate representative sample (s) to see if an edge truly existed with these.
0742 eurnzd, sell 6642, stop 6412, tp 6472, result = 1:1 target not achieved -30, (I took +17)
0745 gbpusd buy 2544, stop 2525, tp 2563, result = 1:1 target no achieved, - 19, (I took +10)
0745 chfjpy buy 3196, stop 3183, tp 3210, result = 1:1 tp achieved +14, (I took +5)
NB: Euraud set-up at same time as 0742 eurnzd but was effectively the same trade as irt so didn't take it, it too saw a good score before reversing and taking the stop, so result = 1:1 tp not achieved -22.
0816 gbpnzd, sell 9266, stop 9303, tp 9229, result = 1:1 not achieved -30 (not traded)
NB: gbpaud and gbpcad set up at same time with similar 15min sell signals, both went on to not achieve the 1:1 tp and got stopped @ -30 each.
NB: I used the above 3 signals as a proxy leading indicator and although it hadn't given the 15min signal, I shorted gbpusd and took -15. It then went on to set up as below
0822 gbpusd sell 2536, stop 2566, tp 2506, result = still open re 1:1 target (+6 taken) +24 max at time of writing
0826 gbpaud buy 76523, stop 7623, tp 7683, result = 1:1 tp achieved +30 (+20 taken)
0840 gbpnzd buy 9313, stop 9270, tp 9356, result = 1:1 tp achieved, +47, (+15 taken)
So 9 x 15min signals available in this shorter trading session, and if held for stop or tp with no trade management so far (with one still open and +24 ahead max as I type this,) the total would be -70. My total on these 15min signals was +58pips. I added a further +14 pips on the 1min and 5min signals.
My conclusions from this test
1. It is unclear whether an edge exists just trading the 15min signals with no trade management and just letting them run to stop or tp, I suspect not given a bigger test sample over a longer duration.
2. Re: trade management, are you really going to let a trade that is +20 ahead run to a stopout for a loss? (0742 and 0745 above are good examples of this.) No of course not, so some trade management would be advisable. What is optimum though for this potential edge though, I do not know.
3. It didn't seem to matter whether divergence was present at the swing point (ie under the 15min zz signal/multiigzag indy green buy 1 or red sell 2 symbol,) although as cautioned above this was a smaller sample.
4. The 15min signals that were with the 1hr/4hr direction succeeded just over twice as often as those that were against them.
5. If this test is anything to go by then human intervention/discretion re whether you trade a 15min signal, how you manage the trade if you do, and where you exit are important and it is this that seems to give the profit. There are no hard and fast rules for this and we will each be different.
Total Test Stats for 15min zz signals allowed to run to stop or tp with no trade management:
Total pips achieved +44
Total 15min signals 28
wins @ 1:1 tp 16
Losers @ full stop out 12
Win rate 57% (with one still open.)
Biggest winner +30
Biggest loser -35
Average winner +19.4
Average loser -26.3
LWR: 8 trades
LLR 3 trades
Expectancy/trade = +1.57pips/trade
So a small positive expectancy, but biggest and average losers both greater than biggest and average winners. Not optimum stats for a trading edge.
Trader with an Edge.
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