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ZigZag - Keep It Simple Stupid

  • #21
  • May 22, 2022 3:01am May 22, 2022 3:01am
Quoting le celte
Samsha786, I don't want to complicate or pollute this thread. If you want, I delete this post Google translate, sorry for the bad english : Bonjour, I started getting interested in Forex more than 15 years ago! For a more than doubtful result. The balance sheet today is not very glorious. Without going into the uninteresting details: today, when I win (in the end), I win little and when I lose, I lose little. I stopped playing Live, now I'm back in Demo. We have good strategies. Two examples among others: right here on this Forum (Basket Knights...
Hi. Thanks for your post. The intention is to keep it simple... there's alot of analysis shared in Post #1 that will allow us to keep it simple. I don't want to introduce templates and indicators that MAY work. If you can share conclusive proof that it DOES work... then we can develop that idea further.

Higher time frames are best for a bias in terms of direction, but you need to enter on the lower time frames to get in earlier. Higher time frames also means bigger stop losses. I like scalping as it's quick in and out - defined stops and profit targets.
  • #22
  • Edited 12:04pm May 22, 2022 3:53am | Edited 12:04pm
Traders reading this thread should refer back to the first few pages of the original thread for the story of the evolution of the zz logic and indy first proposed by Crow the thread starter of that original thread. Samsha786, (this thread's starter,) walidchiicdmi and I amongst some others were active there in exploring/developing the original idea/indy put forward by crow and it is this zigzag (zz) logic around which this thread is intended.

Just a summation of where we are up to, or at least where we are up to in terms of published info / main developments on these 2 threads:

1. Samsha786 developed the multizigzag indy based on crow's riginal zigzig_start level indy.
2. Walidchidmi developed a dashboard showing the changes of the zz across multi instuments and t/f's.
3. There was a slight delay between the arrow changing on the dashboard and the green 1 or sell 2 symbol appearing re the multizigzag indy. I don't know whether this is still the case on samsha786's latest version of the indy? (ie the arrow change on the dashboard came sooner.)
4. Samsha786 has provided great info on his use of the multizigzag indy as described in his first post.

So this thing can be traded many ways, just a couple are listed below and this is essentially repeating what samsha786 has already intimated in his first, thread-opening post;

a. The original idea from crow, ie trade the 1min zz change in the direction of the 5/15min. By extension you could apply this to any 3 time frame (t/f) combination (combo.) For eg trade the 1hr zz change in direction of the 4hr/Dly.
b. Trade The 15min zz change, either as a. above or just as it changes regardless of other zz's on higher t/f's. Again by extension, this could be done with any t/f, but 15min seems sensible for intraday trading.

Samsha786 mainly (and some others including me, albeit a much smaller test sample size) have provided evidence that an edge may exist re b. above and he has concisely pointed out the current shortcomings with this way of trading it, the tp methodology being the main area of concern so far.

Thus far there has been little to no evidence posted that the a. way of trading it may provide an edge in the market.

If for eg the 15min approach can be refined further it certainly gives rise for a potential Ea to be developed. As a further extension of my limited work, and samsha786's extensive work so far - This coming week I am going to take a week off trading my usual edge and set up a new chart profile to trade the 15min signal across 8 pairings for 4hrs/day London 8am -12noon, monday - friday inclusive. I will place the stop a couple of of pips below the green 1 buy or above the red 2 sell symbol on the 15min chart and place the tp ' a 1;1 ratio of that. I will record when the signal is with or against the higher 1hr and 4hr directions to give us some further analysis.

So 8 trading instruments/pairings, (ie the highest win rate probabilities so far seen as recorded by samsha786 in his table posted above,) 15min t/f, across a 4hrs/day trading session gives a total 16 potential signals per instrument, x 8 = 128 possible trading signals/this 4hr trading session. Of course there won't be anywhere near this amount in reality and we will see on Friday how many there actually were. I will keep the thread informed. If anyone wanted to they could do the same on the time slot 12noon - 4pm London time so that we double the info available to us for analysis in developing this edge.

This exercise will help us to establish 2 things

1. Whether the 1:1 r:r that currently looks promising continues to be viable in a further forward test, and;
2. Whether it may be better to trade the 15min signals as they develop or only in direction of the 1hr/4hr zz, ie trying to get in with any trend. This may enable us to aim for a better r:r ratio?

It would also be useful if others posted any results they are achieving, and explain clearly how they are trading the zz logic, with a stop and tp methodologies explanation too.

The exercise above won't produce a representative sample size but it may start to be indicative/informative of the refinements mentioned above, and it follows on from samsha786's already representative 1400+ sample size.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #23
  • May 22, 2022 5:49am May 22, 2022 5:49am
Quoting samsha786
{quote}The intention is to keep it simple...
Hi,
Understood
Deleted !
Cheers
jf
  • #24
  • May 22, 2022 8:12am May 22, 2022 8:12am
Hello everyone. On Friday I made 3 trades 15 min according samsha´s rules except profit but in NY time with the eurusd, audusd and nzdjpy pairs, obtaining 15 pips of reward in all three, although due to the spread I had to manually close the last one, which is why I think this variable should be taken into account. I already took this last pair off my list. At one point when I was with the eurusd, both the gbpusd and the nzsusd gave contrary signals and by correlation I was tempted to close but I didn't and in the end I won. Looking back, this pair was aligned with the one hour signal so it is a fact that I will take into account when entering a trade. Sorry my bad english.
  • #25
  • May 22, 2022 10:31am May 22, 2022 10:31am
Quoting Headland
Traders reading this thread should refer back to the first few pages of the original thread for the story of the evolution of the zz logic and indy first proposed by Crow the thread starter of that original thread. Samsha786, (this thread's starter,) walidchiicdmi and I amongst some others were active there in exploring/developing the original idea/indy put forward by crow and it is this zigzag (zz) logic around which this thread is intended. Just a summation of where we are up to, or at least where we are up to in terms of published info / main...
Thanks Headland!

What will you be using to determine the trend? SMA 200, EMA 200, etc.

Given the nature of this strategy... we always trading reversals (with or against the trend), so I'm not sure if a bias towards the trend will improve the edge. No harm in checking though. I suspect, it may keep you out of many good trades.
  • #26
  • May 22, 2022 10:33am May 22, 2022 10:33am
Quoting gniwre11
Hello everyone. On Friday I made 3 trades 15 min according samsha´s rules except profit but in NY time with the eurusd, audusd and nzdjpy pairs, obtaining 15 pips of reward in all three, although due to the spread I had to manually close the last one, which is why I think this variable should be taken into account. I already took this last pair off my list. At one point when I was with the eurusd, both the gbpusd and the nzsusd gave contrary signals and by correlation I was tempted to close but I didn't and in the end I won. Looking back, this pair...
Hi. Welcome!

Thanks for sharing...

I'm not sure if there's any edge in the lower time frames using a signal on the higher time frame for direction... The higher time frames will always be delayed in comparison to the smaller time frames.

That might be a different story if you using the higher time frame for a general direction (SMA, EMA, etc.) ... but that higher time frame direction shouldn't come from signals from this indicator - in my opinion.

Hope that makes sense?
  • #27
  • May 22, 2022 12:01pm May 22, 2022 12:01pm
Quoting samsha786
{quote} Thanks Headland! What will you be using to determine the trend? SMA 200, EMA 200, etc. Given the nature of this strategy... we always trading reversals (with or against the trend), so I'm not sure if a bias towards the trend will improve the edge. No harm in checking though. I suspect, it may keep you out of many good trades.
Hi,

Re the trend; you made me think about this actually, so what I am going to do is to record when the 15min is with or against the 1hr/4hr ZZ as stated in my post above, but also when it is with or against the 1hr/4hr trend per 3 candle fractal swing analysis - ie HH, HL, HH, HL for uptrend, and opposite for downtrend, (which is the methodology I employ in my usual edge for when a t/f is trending or ranging.)

Re your point about '...always trading reversals...' not necessarily in this scenario; say the 1hr(+) is tending and there is a pullback that produces a 15min signal once the pullback is over and it starts to move in direction of that higher t/f (s) trend. As you say though, it will be interesting to see if the bias toward a higher t/f (+) trend will be of value and this coming week may begin to give us an indication of that.

Pairings to be watched are euraud, eurnzd, eurusd, chfjpy, gbpnzd, gbpaud, gbpusd, and gbpcad. Of course some of these will effectively be the same trade, so it might be worth mixing it up a bit in any future sample.

Given your large sample historical winning rates published in your table in the first post of this thread, I will operate @ circa 3% risk/trade.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #28
  • May 22, 2022 12:12pm May 22, 2022 12:12pm
Would it be possible to add MTF to the ZigZag and then we just use 3 ZigZags on 1 chart?

Or a dashboard for the current opened Chart on 3 Timeframes?

as example

H1 -> Short
15M -> short
5min -> long
  • #29
  • May 22, 2022 2:45pm May 22, 2022 2:45pm
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hola, Re la tendencia; en realidad me hiciste pensar en esto, así que lo que voy a hacer es registrar cuándo los 15 minutos están a favor o en contra de la ZZ de 1 hora/4 horas, como se indicó en mi publicación anterior, pero también cuando están a favor o en contra de la tendencia de 1 hora/4 horas. por análisis de oscilación fractal de 3 velas, es decir, HH, HL, HH, HL para tendencia alcista y opuesto para tendencia bajista (que es la metodología que empleo en mi borde habitual para cuando at/f está en tendencia o en rango). ...siempre...
Do you have any suggestions for stop and profit?
  • #30
  • May 22, 2022 4:34pm May 22, 2022 4:34pm
Quoting gniwre11
{quote} Do you have any suggestions for stop and profit?
see post number 22 above

.....I will place the stop a couple of of pips below the green 1 buy or above the red 2 sell symbol on the 15min chart and place the tp ' a 1;1 ratio of that.....
Trader with an Edge.
  • #31
  • May 23, 2022 12:50am May 23, 2022 12:50am
Added new version: Includes One-Click trading panel and XAGUSD and XAUUSD for the more adventurous.
  • #32
  • May 23, 2022 12:54am May 23, 2022 12:54am
Quoting FundedCoffee
Would it be possible to add MTF to the ZigZag and then we just use 3 ZigZags on 1 chart? Or a dashboard for the current opened Chart on 3 Timeframes? as example H1 -> Short 15M -> short 5min -> long
There is already a dashboard that has that, if you look on the original forum. That forum has evolved into something very different, which is why this thread was started:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...gzag-3-windows
  • #33
  • May 23, 2022 2:35am May 23, 2022 2:35am
Hello everyone!
I also went blind reading the numerous posts of the other thread.
So let's hope we can build something working in this thread.
Therefore I downloaded (eliminating the old indicators) the MultiZigZag.
Very nice.
One thing: I did not understand why the notices arrive minutes late (even more than 20 minutes).
I want to understand: even if you get a late warning (most of them), do you have to open the trade? Or shouldn't you be "automated"? In the second case, when I get an alarm, what should I do? Wait for the next triple signal?
Thanks
  • #34
  • Edited 6:41am May 23, 2022 4:37am | Edited 6:41am
Good afternoon,

I Had major tech problems this morning with multizigzag indy crashing my pc intermittently so have had to remove it. The screenshot below shows what I am now using in the test week exercise I have detailed above.

The dashboard by Walidchidmi
Zigzag start level by crow
ZigZag start level (v.2) posted by DerekW
ZigGag start level alerts posted by MwlRCT

These indys are all available on the original thread which seems to have gone back to the zz methodology discussion (for now?) since P.Action started a new thread for his currency strength and other ideas.

The zigzag start level alerts are set to the same settings as the zigzag start level indy, these line up with the dashboard when the arrow colour changes there.

Day 1 (of 5) test results in live forward market
0800am to 1200 noon London time. 4hrs.

14 signals given on 15min t/f. I did not record whether all of them were with the 1hr/4hr dashboard arrow colour/zz on 1hr/4hr as had all these tech issues but did on 8 of them and on the last 6 where the 15min signal was not with the 1hr/4hr I decided to scalp a smaller target than 1:1 r:r. Similarly, I did not record whether the 15min signal was with or against pa trend conditions on these 1hr/4hr higher t/f's but hope to do so for the rest of this week's trial.

* = noticed when signal was with 1hr/4hr zz/dashboard arrow colours
** = noticed when15min signal was not with 1hr/4hr zz/dashboard arrow colours

1. 0830am eurnzd buy @ 6383, sop @ 6365, tp = 1:1, = +18pip gain
2. 0830am euraud buy @ 4919, sttop @ 4888, tp = 1:1, = +31pip gain
3. 0845 eurusd buy @ 0602, sop @ 0590, tp = 1;1, = +12pip gain
4. * 0845am gbpusd sell @ 2559, stop @ 2574, tp = 1:1, = -15pip loss
5. 0845am gbpnzd buy @ 9416, stop @ 9400, tp = 1:1, = +15pips gain
6. * 0900am chfjpy buy @ 3140, stop @ 3120, tp = 1;1, = +20pips gain
7. 1000am gbpusd buy @ 2557, stop @2546, tp = 1;1, = +11pip gain
8. ** 1045am gbpnzd sell @ 9421, stop @ 9448, tp = 1;1, = +27pip gain
9. ** 1115am gbpaud sell @ 7681, stop @ 771, tp = 1;1, = +30pip gain
10. ** 1130am gbpcad sell @6075, stop @ 6110, tp = 1;1, = +10pips scalp taken (in an unrealised loss at the moment but stilll within the stop if was holding for 1:1.)
11. ** 1144am eurnzd sell @ 6453, stop @ 6473, tp = 1;1, = B/e taken after being a max +13 in unrealised profit, now in a an unrealised loss but still within stop if holding for 1:1.)
12. ** 1145am eurusd sell @ 0666, stop @ 0687, tp = 1:1, = +9pips scalp taken.
13. ** 1145am euraud sell @ 4985, stop +5025, tp = 1;1, = not traded as at same time as and effectively the same trade as eurusd above....similar situation
as 11. above correct at time of typing.
* 14. 1203pm gbpcad buy @6079, stop @ 6065, tp = 1:1, = +14pips gain

So a good win rate of trades which may or may not have been enhanced by me scalping targets if against the 1hr/4hr zz/arrows in the later period of my 4hr trading session, unless there was a sudden spurt/momentum in favour of the trade and/or the 30min changed in favour as well. +167pips achieved which @ circa 3% risk/trade and accounting for the scalps was circa +24%.

Observations
The 1:1 seems thus far on this small sample size to be generally working well, although as intimated above I think where the signal is against the prevailing signals on 1hr/4hr more caution might be the best tactic? If this is the case then some discretion is still involved in trading this. Time will tell. Might get a better idea tomorrow. On these pairings at least which are highly correlated, there was a 'definite' London open move today so not rangy which will have helped the results no doubt. As I mentioned before it may be better to mix and match instruments a bit more but for now am sticking with 8 that exhibited the highest win rates per samsha786's 1400+ sample size of trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trader with an Edge.
  • #35
  • Edited 4:56am May 23, 2022 4:45am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting Headland
Good afternoon, I Had major tech problems this morning with multizigzag indy crashing my pc intermittently so have had to remove it. The screenshot below shows what I am now using in the test week exercise I have detailed above. The dashboard by Walidchidmi Zigzag start level by crow ZigZag start level (v.2) posted by DerekW ZigGag start level alerts posted by MwlRCT These indys are all available on the original thread which seems to have gone back to the zz methodology discussion (for now?) since P.Action started a new thread for his currency strength...
Hi Headland

Apologies for that... the new indy is very hungry as it is scanning 30 pairs all the time. I could speed this up by updating only every 1 min...

Thanks for sharing your results. Great to see that the analysis and the reality coincide nicely. I am also weary that the approach doesn't work consistently... today might just be a good day.

Really well done on your results... really enjoying this strategy .

Any thoughts on how to reduce the discretionary element?
  • #36
  • May 23, 2022 5:16am May 23, 2022 5:16am
Quoting samsha786
{quote} I'll have a look.
Have you look the indi?
Please can you insert an iput to select only some pairs?
Crazy to trade 30 pairs
thank you
  • #37
  • Edited 8:35am May 23, 2022 5:26am | Edited 8:35am
Quoting 19monza64
{quote} Have you look the indi? Please can you insert an iput to select only some pairs? Crazy to trade 30 pairs thank you
New Version v1.15 - get it from Post #1:

  1. Added Symbols input - configure with comma separated list of symbols. E.g. EURUSD,GBPUSD,GBPCAD. It's case-sensitive, so enter exactly as it is at your broker. No spaces between the commas.
  2. The convenient control panel will only display these pairs.
  3. The alerts will only trigger for these pairs.
  4. Default is 30 pairs.

  • #38
  • Edited 6:54am May 23, 2022 5:44am | Edited 6:54am
Quoting samsha786
{quote} Hi Headland Apologies for that... the new indy is very hungry as it is scanning 30 pairs all the time. I could speed this up by updating only every 1 min... Thanks for sharing your results. Great to see that the analysis and the reality coincide nicely. I am also weary that the approach doesn't work consistently... today might just be a good day. Really well done on your results... really enjoying this strategy . Any thoughts on how to reduce the discretionary element?
Hi, thanks and no probs, appreciate your work and input.

Re reducing discretion, - monitoring multiple pairs makes it difficult to add another analysis filter (s) [ie it is or it isn't - no middle ground type filter,] unless it is integrated into the existing zz alarm logic. You just can't feasibly watch for other analysis manually to help filter the zz signal when it comes across that many trading instruments. The EA is the ultimate goal I guess and for this we need logic that can be coded, and that has been empirically proven and documented across a large representative sample size.

Boring I know, but it may come down to when the zz signal is with or against trend on the next higher t/f's. The 15min signals mostly all show some unrealised/realised pip gain even if they eventually get stopped out if holding for a target, so it may come down to exiting a 15min signal trade that is against the 1hr/4hr earlier than 1:1 when it is with. This is not a guaranteed filter as a trend can end at any time (...the trend is your friend, till the end, when it bends..'.,) but it may help to put the probabilities more firmly on our side when we do get a 15min zz signal. Will see what the rest of this1 week trial tells us in this respect (should at least be indicative,) and in meantime have a think about other things. that may help us to do this.
Trader with an Edge.
  • #39
  • May 23, 2022 6:22am May 23, 2022 6:22am
Hi all!
I just started follow this system. Can we get better results if stop lose get moved when half target reach from TP point?

Exemple: we open trade risk:reward 1:1 (20pips) Stop is placed previous m15 bar HL. When trade moved to +10 pips we adjust Stop lose from -20 to -10pips and leave. Let it run TP or lose.

I now testing this way
  • #40
  • May 23, 2022 6:22am May 23, 2022 6:22am
Quoting Headland
{quote} Hi, thanks and no probs, appreciate your work and input. Re reducing discretion, - monitoring multiple pairs makes it difficult to add another analysis filter (s) unless it is integrated into the existing zz alarm logic. You just can't feasibly watch for other analysis manually to help filter the zz signal when it comes across that many trading instruments. The EA is the ultimate goal I guess and for this we need logic that can be coded, and that has been empirically proven and documented across a large representative sample size. Boring...
I'm working on an improved indicator... thanks to an idea from le celte. Not sure yet... but that might be a thread on it's own. It will look similar to this indicator, but it's a completely different algorithm.

If the conceptual idea works great... I might call it U-Turn !
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