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The Swamp

US30 is coming very close to month uptrend stop around 30,800 per sys II..
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Gold is testing H4 downtrends stop 1830 atm.. not sure bears can hold...I started gold short at 1827 and 1830.. will add.. 1845 is week range high..
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Eur coming test H1 downtrend stop 0509 per sysI, if bears fail to hold at hour close.. better to stay away shorting Eur..
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Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The trend is down. But now it has closed an hour above 0495. It didn't make it past 0457. I know it will make a lower low, or go to 0642. Now it may go to 0511. If it starts closing above 0511 and 0506.8. It may test 0556+. If so, I may get 0642.
The 4h did close above 0495, but not 0506.8 yet. The 1 h did close above 0511 and 0506.8. To go higher to 0642, 0556 R would need a close above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Tech wise gold may need a bounce. To me, a gold long here is risky.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
Tech wise gold may need a bounce. To me, a gold long here is risky. {image}
gold +1811.4 closed, may be a spot to long gold. -1811.4 closed may be a need to drop again. The same with 1799 for either.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} High interest drives the usd up, on the other hand, A loss of usd reserve status is a kick in the balls. Interaction between other countries unknown. Since a real default would cause a major upset in the world. A high interest rates may cause developing countries. Paying off infrastructure in USD, to default. Not to mention food, and other commodities. It wouldn't take long for the hungry peasants to rush the castles. Yeah, so many thousands of things are connected to a default. Affect would be hard to visualize. Likely a world...
In the beginning there was darkness.


"
Sri Lanka Falls Into Default For The First Time Ever

  1. Nation missed grace period payments on bonds worth $78 million
  2. Asia’s fastest inflation is forecast to worsen to 40% from 30%"



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ay-surge-to-40

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...d-crisis-video

those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Boulder
Gold is testing H4 downtrends stop 1830 atm.. not sure bears can hold...I started gold short at 1827 and 1830.. will add.. 1845 is week range high.. {image}
Gold added 1833 and 1837...2 more pending ...watch 1845..
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} In the beginning there was darkness. " Sri Lanka Falls Into Default For The First Time Ever Nation missed grace period payments on bonds worth $78 million Asia’s fastest inflation is forecast to worsen to 40% from 30%" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ay-surge-to-40
Is this something that could potentially send GOLD into a parabolic northbound direction?
Cheers!!PM23
Quoting Boulder
US30 is coming very close to month uptrend stop around 30,800 per sys II.. {image}
everything flying including gold , cable and Eur..while US30 DWI , nas and SPX are still negative. Unreal..
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} In the beginning there was darkness. " Sri Lanka Falls Into Default For The First Time Ever Nation missed grace period payments on bonds worth $78 million Asia’s fastest inflation is forecast to worsen to 40% from 30%" https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ay-surge-to-40 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...d-crisis-video

probably it ends with darkness also
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Gold added 1833 and 1837...2 more pending ...watch 1845..
it went up when claims were higher

we are going into recession - FED doesn't seem to care about the market so i guess what we need is bad economic number so FED can slow down.
if not they are full spead ahead.

June also is with balance sheet shrinking.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
EUR/USD line in the sand in 560 more or less
above weekly 850 more or less

but already into resistance.

most of the pair are doing the same. so market is anticipating FED may slow down.

we need a weaker number on inflation so RISK can come back

so far it's like the end of the world. some are calling for 3400 S&P
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting PipsMaster23
{quote} Is this something that could potentially send GOLD into a parabolic northbound direction?
I may be wrong. I think just the opposite. Sure investors will see it as they have the last 40 years. I think a stronger usd makes gold cheaper comparable. Most of the physical gold, owned by billions of people is in Asia. Asia will be hit hard in food deficits. So a lot of the demand they have for gold, will be sucked up by higher food cost. At the same time some may be forced to sell the gold they have to eat.

Some spikes to be expected as people do what they always have done. People sell stocks and put it in gold. People get margin calls on stocks and need to settle. Sometimes selling gold to do it. But think about it. Most of the demand for gold comes from Asia. If the demand from Asia stalls. The gold market will follow. Whats the choice for some, hold gold, or watch your children starve?

I think out the box. I don't go with the generic flow.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The 4h did close above 0495, but not 0506.8 yet. The 1 h did close above 0511 and 0506.8. To go higher to 0642, 0556 R would need a close above.
Bulls have to take and close above 0556.... It is a R.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bulls have to take and close above 0556.... It is a R.
bullish PA imo but importatn is the close. we've been here before in marc april and the make new lows.

we do have some BS news or expactation that helps eur for now. but i think the most important is a slower US economy the rest are just noise
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I may be wrong. I think just the opposite. Sure investors will see it as they have the last 40 years. I think a stronger usd makes gold cheaper comparable. Most of the physical gold, owned by billions of people is in Asia. Asia will be hit hard in food deficits. So a lot of the demand they have for gold, will be sucked up by higher food cost. At the same time some may be forced to sell the gold they have to eat. Some spikes to be expected as people do what they always have done. People sell stocks and put it in gold. People get margin calls...
If people haven't heard. There's a war between Russia and Ukraine. Yet gold fell below last years close. When the war started gold was in the 1903 area (at the day close.). Even with some idiot talking about dropping nukes. Gold is still down. More third world countries will default. These defaults will be on infrastructure such as water treatment. These countries will be cut off from a lot of investment for years as a result. Or the new terms will be steeper. Meaning it will cost poor countries more. So they wont get a lot of improvements.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Gold added 1833 and 1837...2 more pending ...watch 1845..
Booked some gold shorts...
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Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If people haven't heard. There's a war between Russia and Ukraine. Yet gold fell below last years close. When the war started gold was in the 1903 area (at the day close.). Even with some idiot talking about dropping nukes. Gold is still down. More third world countries will default. These defaults will be on infrastructure such as water treatment. These countries will be cut off from a lot of investment for years as a result. Or the new terms will be steeper. Meaning it will cost poor countries more. So they wont get a lot of improvements....
Eur just shorted 0564 with 20 pips stop loss...
Strange things are happening - "GERMAN GAS IMPORTERS CAN OPEN ROUBLE ACCOUNTS TO PAY FOR RUSSIAN GAS - SOURCES"
FX is randomly symmetrical and I am anti-Faucism
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