Disliked{quote} Still holding this trade. Badly want 4hr to close above 1.0416. {image} {image}Ignored
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- #149,043
- May 14, 2022 9:11am May 14, 2022 9:11am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
. My two cents...{image}
...because you never know - until you do!
- #149,044
- Edited 11:21am May 14, 2022 9:44am | Edited 11:21am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,132 Posts
{quote} Is that two cents before or after the present inflation? By now it must be a quarter at least! Don't even think about the roubles....
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #149,045
- May 14, 2022 10:08am May 14, 2022 10:08am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,132 Posts
{quote} Checking weekly, still likely fall towards 0217, so may need 128 pips plus sl apparently ok adjust. Some good bounce signal need to proceed again if not pus in advance on assumption as wave 5 running can be any size again. First signal 0470/84 and confirmation 0641 while target limit 0805! Lets see how play, may play low and start bounce next week! in small tf , ok around 0336 target actually meet , all 5th running likely in that simple 1 leg movement , so at least 3 waves move possible for further down target having 0464 +- {image} {image}...
That said, I personally think that price might not even drop below 1.0330 in upcoming days.. In my "opinion" any 1.02xx levels will come later with wave 5... I first expect a wave 4 up and that could give bulls a reward between 280 to 430 pips.. (With your interference and on second thoughts, I canceled the 500 pips reward idea. Thanks for that!)
Best wishes
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #149,046
- Edited 9:49pm May 14, 2022 2:31pm | Edited 9:49pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
{quote} Good thoughts and I respect... That said, I personally think that price might not even drop below 1.0330 in upcoming days.. In my "opinion" any 1.02xx levels will come later with wave 5... I first expect a wave 4 up and that could give bulls a reward between 280 to 430 pips.. (With your interference and on second thoughts, I canceled the 500 pips reward idea. Thanks for that!) Best wishes
Yes b at 0.886!
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #149,047
- Edited 4:13pm May 14, 2022 3:26pm | Edited 4:13pm
{quote} Good thoughts and I respect... That said, I personally think that price might not even drop below 1.0330 in upcoming days.. In my "opinion" any 1.02xx levels will come later with wave 5... I first expect a wave 4 up and that could give bulls a reward between 280 to 430 pips.. (With your interference and on second thoughts, I canceled the 500 pips reward idea. Thanks for that!) Best wishes
We could see some coiling similar to 2016 because... next week is ECB meeting (non policy decision) where the pressure will increase. There is dissent in the ECB council and some members (from the inflation fighter wing) feel very uneasy and start talking (and leaking) information. The end of the easy money will certainly become official in June at the ECB Press Conference one week before the FED meeting where the ECB will speak out their intention to hike.
For me it is sure that the ECB will hike on July 16th. When the narrative officially ends that the ECB will stay at near 0 the EUR trend will stall and retrace quite a bit.
The question is only... when is that "officially"? As I already pointed out my favorite Mr Nagel is working hard in nailing the coffin for the 0% Rate.
So, it could be at the ECB Press Conference (as a verbal assurance)... and then the narrative (that the ECB stays at 0%) changes officially before the next FED hike on 29th June or it could be in the regular way at the ECB Policy Meeting on July 16th.
The first case would effectively neutralize the effect of the FED hike two weeks later on the EUR .
Either way the EUR will surely turn around but the question is... with or without an additional dip. So I guess the smart money will get careful now since no one knows how this poker between FED and ECB board members will play out. Hence, I am expecting the coiling I mentioned already and that was observable at the reversal in October 2016 or a light slope up. The first (coiling) will be of course favored by our robber banksters who will catch overenthusiastic traders on the short and on the long side so I may give that my preference.
In the meantime the DXY can still go a notch higher without that the EUR goes below 1.0350. The JPY, AUD, CAD and GBP can buffer this. But most propably he may print a 38% pinbar.
P.S. and btw... stochs on the weekly were only that low as on last week Friday over the past 10 years during the big drop from 1.40, in October 2015 and in October 2016 -> where in the latter two it turned around.
- #149,050
- Edited 4:11am May 15, 2022 3:57am | Edited 4:11am
- Joined Sep 2017 | Status: Trader | 4,492 Posts
{quote} Good thoughts and I respect... That said, I personally think that price might not even drop below 1.0330 in upcoming days.. In my "opinion" any 1.02xx levels will come later with wave 5... I first expect a wave 4 up and that could give bulls a reward between 280 to 430 pips.. (With your interference and on second thoughts, I canceled the 500 pips reward idea. Thanks for that!) Best wishes
1.05 is the Bears target and everything below is banks making you bleed. 1.0350 - 1.0415 - 1.0630 and 1.0830. This sure 500 pips going to be in sideways for this Q2.
- #149,051
- May 15, 2022 5:27am May 15, 2022 5:27am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #149,053
- May 15, 2022 9:51am May 15, 2022 9:51am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Hello everyone, this is my first post here, the idea explained on the chart. any comments are welcome. {image}
Sending you a welcome e-tako! Extra guacamole with a special bears' welcome!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #149,055
- May 15, 2022 10:58am May 15, 2022 10:58am
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Happy Sunday!
For me as well, it still has to play in higher levels or <.3, to consider pausing my selling like I did in Covid's Low's battle, where I also closed a few long-term shorts, as I shared. The drop is still too steady for me and I experienced trends of this quality before, and I know that I can't predict their end, so I wait till I get more long setups than shorts instead. For me, it is simply impossible to predict using highest TFs alone. But, for now, I can't really do anything other than wait for a proper intraday fight >.05, and/or double- bottoms(2H and up) and for the bulk of my shorts exits, focusing on 1H to D perspective. Although I have all the respect in the world for it, Weekly for me is just for fun, seeing how well or awful it can mimic it's baby brothers and sisters , like I did here: Let's see how that goes ! Mr.Weekly 
also lightly interfered into my 8H shenanigans here : Bingo! Chart shared on that post got me some extra positions at >.05 
for some 8H +Weekly Rare Combo Fun 
!
I like your chart, especially your idea about waiting a week to see what happens! I analyze the daily a lot. Actually, too much. But it's refreshing from time to time, after all the Xmin charts bickering like needy children all the time . I also look at the weekly like you, and find it refreshing, but also impossible to use determinately for trading, because of the lack of occurrences on which to base important trading decisions on for entry, exit, mm, etc. And even more so during some extremely rare long-term movements, like this one here. I mainly use it to freshen up my analysis happy mood 
, as silly as that sounds!
From the daily perspective, speculation aside, it is dropping incessantly, pausing, dropping, still. With only a couple <50% retracements and only one +-60%, since what is, for me, the start of it, May's 2021 last 1.22 double/triple top failed followed by the straight <.2 attack. There are many ways to see this, like
1) the big correction or reversal is coming, let's start buying!
2) steadiness of this drop is of top quality, let's continue selling !
3,4,5,6,7) this list is extremely long and it should be, in my opinion, as every scenario deserves it's complete plan, even the craziest ones.
I have been on a mainly selling and holding adventure for a while(many live shared here with more insight than I bother to share today, if interested, search in profile is a gem of a tool I use often myself to discover other's adventures). BUT before all this selling, I shared my long adventure way back in pre-May 2021. I had a lot of longs going back then, and it took all that bear acrobatics and kicking and screaming to get me out of my many many longs.
In my experience and my own limited set strategies, it is better to wait for the trend's quality to be challenged at its core. So when a trend is of a certain quality, I get out when it seems "late", and I am fine with that.
Looking on the daily myself, I notice the last predominant day move, Thursday, a full bodied candle in a steady drop(the potential of which, for me, is still simply incalculable on the 12H and up, for lack of history for such moves+volatility+trend+momentum, and I learned to NOT trust my own smaller timeframes strategies/patterns for any other timeframes than the one it has been developed for), I prefer to wait to see what happens if the middle is attacked and how it happens on the lower timeframes will determine if I add to my shorts, close some, or buy. Bu.t that is just me, a tiny speck, and I know how many more ways there are to take advantage of this market!
So overall, I personally have so much more confidence with the shorter timeframes, as I could analyze the 1000s times that a particular price movement happened...
Some crazy Sunday rambling for us crazy heavy readers and puzzle lovers, crazy bears in cabs on fire !
!!!!Cheers good lads, Let's go now, with our finest tool belt, sharpest state of mind and religiously following our rules with our discipline of steel!, and go have our best trading week yet !!!!
{quote} V type breakout but need breakout bar over 0419 and better 0425 waiting for to tank next towards previous bottom! No happened yet but bull may choice up to be crashed next. No hope that it can go high to signal reversal yet! Let's see
, like I did here:{quote} Nice observation. I take this doji of a week with even more importance after such a determinant 300+ week drop in trend, which begs me to have a buy stop at the top and sell stop at the bottom ! But who's doing the begging
also lightly interfered into my 8H shenanigans here : ... I do sure hope some of this baby 8h hidden divergence(which is affecting my trading starting today) is a sign that it is all about to change at last. A close below last week's low before >06 is a must for me to factor it in even more, at this point. And need a strong enough follow through <0480 to stay clear of the fresh new stops scattered throughout the past 8 days crazy...
for some 8H +Weekly Rare Combo Fun !Hello everyone, this is my first post here, the idea explained on the chart. any comments are welcome. {image}
. I also look at the weekly like you, and find it refreshing, but also impossible to use determinately for trading, because of the lack of occurrences on which to base important trading decisions on for entry, exit, mm, etc. And even more so during some extremely rare long-term movements, like this one here. I mainly use it to freshen up my analysis happy mood , as silly as that sounds!From the daily perspective, speculation aside, it is dropping incessantly, pausing, dropping, still. With only a couple <50% retracements and only one +-60%, since what is, for me, the start of it, May's 2021 last 1.22 double/triple top failed followed by the straight <.2 attack. There are many ways to see this, like
1) the big correction or reversal is coming, let's start buying!
2) steadiness of this drop is of top quality, let's continue selling !
3,4,5,6,7) this list is extremely long and it should be, in my opinion, as every scenario deserves it's complete plan, even the craziest ones.
I have been on a mainly selling and holding adventure for a while(many live shared here with more insight than I bother to share today, if interested, search in profile is a gem of a tool I use often myself to discover other's adventures). BUT before all this selling, I shared my long adventure way back in pre-May 2021. I had a lot of longs going back then, and it took all that bear acrobatics and kicking and screaming to get me out of my many many longs.
In my experience and my own limited set strategies, it is better to wait for the trend's quality to be challenged at its core. So when a trend is of a certain quality, I get out when it seems "late", and I am fine with that.
Looking on the daily myself, I notice the last predominant day move, Thursday, a full bodied candle in a steady drop(the potential of which, for me, is still simply incalculable on the 12H and up, for lack of history for such moves+volatility+trend+momentum, and I learned to NOT trust my own smaller timeframes strategies/patterns for any other timeframes than the one it has been developed for), I prefer to wait to see what happens if the middle is attacked and how it happens on the lower timeframes will determine if I add to my shorts, close some, or buy. Bu.t that is just me, a tiny speck, and I know how many more ways there are to take advantage of this market!
So overall, I personally have so much more confidence with the shorter timeframes, as I could analyze the 1000s times that a particular price movement happened...
Some crazy Sunday rambling for us crazy heavy readers and puzzle lovers, crazy bears in cabs on fire !!!!!Cheers good lads, Let's go now, with our finest tool belt, sharpest state of mind and religiously following our rules with our discipline of steel!, and go have our best trading week yet !!!!
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #149,056
- May 15, 2022 1:15pm May 15, 2022 1:15pm
Well, I had a second look on the current state and I discovered – despite the tough 1.0350 resistance on the weekly – another, unfortunately opposing, scenario.
At the monthly chart the last down move is not that clear. The next days have to show this. If the EUR bounces higher some 120 pips then we get a pinbar – but a not very convincing one.
However, to the 1.0350 resistance line another serious trend line is showing up at the monthly. Connecting the low in March 2015 and the lows of Dec 2016/Jan 2017 will give us another floor. Why this is serious?... because this trend line is located this month at -> 1.0000 - the magical parity !!!
If the EUR, now in May or next month drops down to that (which is possible if the FED decides to go for 0.75% or the ECB does nothing) and bounces back to the level we are now that would print a powerful reversal bar and would give us an exhaustion similar to the one in March 2014.
This scenario puts the ECB/FED policy decisions next month front end & center. So… I feel we have some very turbulent 4 weeks ahead of us.
At the monthly chart the last down move is not that clear. The next days have to show this. If the EUR bounces higher some 120 pips then we get a pinbar – but a not very convincing one.
However, to the 1.0350 resistance line another serious trend line is showing up at the monthly. Connecting the low in March 2015 and the lows of Dec 2016/Jan 2017 will give us another floor. Why this is serious?... because this trend line is located this month at -> 1.0000 - the magical parity !!!
If the EUR, now in May or next month drops down to that (which is possible if the FED decides to go for 0.75% or the ECB does nothing) and bounces back to the level we are now that would print a powerful reversal bar and would give us an exhaustion similar to the one in March 2014.
This scenario puts the ECB/FED policy decisions next month front end & center. So… I feel we have some very turbulent 4 weeks ahead of us.
- #149,058
- May 15, 2022 10:35pm May 15, 2022 10:35pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #149,059
- May 15, 2022 10:58pm May 15, 2022 10:58pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Going with the flow | 2,032 Posts
3rd January 2017, 1.0344 ish... let's go get it, the last nail in the coffin 
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome. 
- #149,060
- May 16, 2022 1:06am May 16, 2022 1:06am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,132 Posts
Daily S/R Levels for Monday
- Bulls have to break above 1.0425 to make things interesting..
- Any serious bearish attacks seem to be limited with 1.0326 area..
I hope it helps..
Happy new trading week to all..
Focus only on what truly matters!