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V Pattern (Enjoy Your Sell)

  • #961
  • May 9, 2022 12:39am May 9, 2022 12:39am
gbpnzd
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  • #962
  • May 9, 2022 12:41am May 9, 2022 12:41am
usdcad
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  • #963
  • May 9, 2022 12:43am May 9, 2022 12:43am
usdcad : d1
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  • #964
  • May 9, 2022 12:45am May 9, 2022 12:45am
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  • #965
  • May 9, 2022 12:48am May 9, 2022 12:48am
What am I doing wrong?
  • #966
  • May 9, 2022 2:07am May 9, 2022 2:07am
Quoting TheZenienss
What am I doing wrong?
What you may be doing wrong:
- In most of your entries you're taking minor / random highs that have no structural weight. Just by looking left on most screenshots, you can see that the high you choose makes little sense. You should maybe focus more on reversals after major highs, maybe taking HTF into account. Remember, V pattern is nothing more than a double top / false break.
- In a not of your examples, if you had chosen instead a breakout bar that closes above your high (and not just have a wick above it), it would have changed a lot of outcomes, and would have prevented you from entering (or entering too soon). For example in your entry here, which was a good spot because you were clearly with the overall down trend, you could have waited for a clear rejection of the highs:

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It seems to be the case also here:
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- Even in your less optimal entries, you could have avoided some losses simply by moving SL to BE after taking your small profit. In a lot of cases, you book a win on the first partial close, and a loss on the second. All those should be: One win and one BE. Especially since you see that your win rate is not great, protect your capital.

What you're doing right:
- Showing people on this thread that it's not as easy as picking hindsight examples of reversals, looking left, choosing a random previous high, and drawing a V reversal pattern on the screenshot and saying "see, another example of a V pattern!".
  • #967
  • May 9, 2022 3:22am May 9, 2022 3:22am
Quoting TheZenienss
What am I doing wrong?
Your setups are correct there is nothing wrong, the problem is you are targeting take profit 1:8... 1:8 IS VERY DIFFICULT it's rare and takes a lot of time to achieve if you are trading at H1 or higher. i take my profit at Tp 1 or Tp 2 and close the trade. Once you see a V shape take profit at tp 1 and move one..i have a high success rate ever since discovering this strategy. all the screenshots you shared would have been profits if you closed at tp1 or tp2.
  • #968
  • May 9, 2022 3:25am May 9, 2022 3:25am
lookout for USDCAD H1
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  • #969
  • May 9, 2022 5:19am May 9, 2022 5:19am
AUDUSD
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  • #970
  • May 9, 2022 6:08am May 9, 2022 6:08am
Quoting TheZenienss
What am I doing wrong?
Lots of thanks to you. I mentioned it before in my posts that EXACTLY the entry is the problem,- which is Emma not really explaining. I also cannot see clear rules for entry.

I think you can tweak your R:R ratios. As mentioned before, it is in your case 1:5 or even 1:8 (Risk:Reward) - so may be reduce it to 1:3 and give the market more space (higer SL) but the problem still exists: When to enter?

New rule could be: you have to wait a certain period of time before entering the trade, so lots of false breaks to the downside are avoided - but of course you "avoid" also lots of winning trades. Will it play out in the end? I don't know.

The system with the current rules would not pass my backtest criterias - as almost every system here on Forexfactory. I'm very sure if I would use different times to enter after a V-Pattern is finished the outcome would be most times 1:1 (losing 10000, winning 10000) and sometimes 1:1,2 (10000 losing, 12000 winning) - depends on the time of waiting.

The problem with that is again, that this is already curve-fitting. For example you have best results on GBP/USD after 24 hours waiting after V-Pattern finished. Now you use the same on EUR/USD and you realize: here it is best after 36 hours and after 24 hours it is only 1:1 on EUR/USD.

I'm not sure how pros here really earn money with strategies like that but as before: This strategy here has potential because it plays with market imbalances, so there can be a real advantage.
  • #971
  • May 9, 2022 7:26am May 9, 2022 7:26am
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Arun
  • #972
  • May 9, 2022 7:47am May 9, 2022 7:47am
Quoting arunthegreat
{image}
i think yes , took already shorts on this pair. and eur gbp both currencies r under the pump so it wont trend much will back to earlier points to make range.
  • #973
  • May 9, 2022 8:16am May 9, 2022 8:16am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} Lots of thanks to you. I mentioned it before in my posts that EXACTLY the entry is the problem,- which is Emma not really explaining. I also cannot see clear rules for entry. I think you can tweak your R:R ratios. As mentioned before, it is in your case 1:5 or even 1:8 (Risk:Reward) - so may be reduce it to 1:3 and give the market more space (higer SL) but the problem still exists: When to enter? New rule could be: you have to wait a certain period of time before entering the trade, so lots of false breaks to the downside are avoided - but...
I understand your frustration. It's also why, at the very start of this thread, I could see things coming (also, because after lurking these forums for many years, I can see the inevitable pattern of how they start, and end), and so I pointed out some obvious red flags.

First one being, it's very easy to pick hindsight setups, draw pretty TP boxes and V patterns, and pretend to be a master trader. So I called out, that given the number of hindsight examples that were posted, we should be drowned in winning setups every day. Well, what a surprise, that didn't happen (BTW, a lot of those example setups posted by OP don't even correspond to the rules, because not a major high was chosen, because those were examples chosen in hindsight). If you look back at the recent posting history of Emma, look at the potential setups he/she posted: They are nearly all losing trades.

One of the reason is: confirmation bias. And even, more so when the logic behind certain posted setups is backwards: OP looks back at the chart's history, looking for pretty reversals. OP spots a reversal, looks left, sees a random high that was absolutely not a major high, draws a pretty line, and adds the screenshot the the growing proof that V reversals work easy.

And it's easy to fall into the trap of reinforcing a self-belief, especially when done unconsciously, with this ongoing confirmation bias, whatever methodology you use. You train your eyes to see a certain thing, discarding the number of times it fails, and thinking you got something.
  • #974
  • Edited 10:00am May 9, 2022 8:47am | Edited 10:00am
Quoting TheZenienss
What am I doing wrong?
example on audcad, for me this is a setup that has high accuracy , look screenshot
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usdcad
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nzdusd
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another
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  • #975
  • May 9, 2022 10:14am May 9, 2022 10:14am
Quoting TheZenienss
{image}
nice result
  • #976
  • May 9, 2022 10:17am May 9, 2022 10:17am
Quoting TheZenienss
What am I doing wrong?
nothing this is the reality it tried to explain it for a time.
  • #977
  • May 9, 2022 10:50am May 9, 2022 10:50am
Quoting TheZenienss
{image}
feeling bad about this really. Perhaps you need to learn more here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-action-system
Greatness Is Only Achieved By Working Hard... Depends How Bad You Want It!!
  • #978
  • May 9, 2022 10:52am May 9, 2022 10:52am
First of all thnx to Emma for this schematic of trading,
My point here is that the pattern is working very good, but bcoz of its high freq nature u will generate maybe more than 4 winning streaks then u get 1 or 2 losses coz of the market conditions in that time
that's fine for trading bcoz u dont have to be winning all the time, rather than putting pressure and telling the odds of the pattern we can enhance it, and I do have good conditions for that enhance I will post them in another reply,
my last words the pattern is good, working fine and it has his nature of winning and losing, by back testing on stocks, the pattern can generate lots of winning conditions and here is the advantage of the pattern, u can capitalize on it very well with proper money management, talking about the break condition of the high/low I found that when the candle break with its body is better then cracking the high or low with the wick bcoz the nature of retest of the prev high and low is testing with the wick so u may get multiple tests, I found also that u can generate a signal on for example strong high then SL is getting hit then the signal is generated again on the same high and turns to winner, so u may scale your lot size when entering, talking about the strong high and low u may need to break prev resistance or support with a condition like that if the support to me broken formed from one point this would be weak but is the support is formed with at least 2 bottoms this will held very well to consider the high is strong what I mean if the support which meant to be broken is a rotation area with multiple lows this will let the high is a strong high
I will explain later in other replies
Thnx Emma for the good work
  • #979
  • May 9, 2022 11:27am May 9, 2022 11:27am
Quoting JackintheBox
Thanks Emma for showing examples. The funny this is you show exactly the problem which I mentioned before (don't worry, many pros here do the same). Let's take your last example, here it is very clear: The "A" Scenario trade is nice and clear.{image} But the "B" Scenario breaks all rules of A Scenario - longer timeframe until "corridor" of breakout is completed, violating exit rule if V-Pattern is broken to the upside - except the corridor is not yet finished. So the question is: when is the corridor finished? Is it a matter of time or price? Or...
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ENJOY YOUR TRADE
  • #980
  • May 9, 2022 12:00pm May 9, 2022 12:00pm
Quoting JackintheBox
Thanks Emma for showing examples. The funny this is you show exactly the problem which I mentioned before (don't worry, many pros here do the same). Let's take your last example, here it is very clear: The "A" Scenario trade is nice and clear.{image} But the "B" Scenario breaks all rules of A Scenario - longer timeframe until "corridor" of breakout is completed, violating exit rule if V-Pattern is broken to the upside - except the corridor is not yet finished. So the question is: when is the corridor finished? Is it a matter of time or price? Or...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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ENJOY YOUR TRADE
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