Sell limit placed at 1.064, stop loss is 1.08, target at 1.05 and under I anticipate more dollar strength today as the stock futures continue to be sold
...because you never know - until you do!
- #148,721
- May 6, 2022 6:45am May 6, 2022 6:45am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
- #148,724
- Edited 7:28am May 6, 2022 7:13am | Edited 7:28am
- | Joined Mar 2022 | Status: Trader | 1,093 Posts
- #148,725
- May 6, 2022 7:20am May 6, 2022 7:20am
- Joined Dec 2021 | Status: hungry for pizza & burgers | 2,542 Posts
don't believe in mumbo jumbo from gurus & charlatans, don't pay them money
- #148,728
- May 6, 2022 7:47am May 6, 2022 7:47am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
...because you never know - until you do!
- #148,732
- May 6, 2022 8:51am May 6, 2022 8:51am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
...because you never know - until you do!
- #148,733
- May 6, 2022 9:14am May 6, 2022 9:14am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,414 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #148,734
- May 6, 2022 9:18am May 6, 2022 9:18am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
I'm really surprised given the data that 1.0550 has held. Will stay sidelined until 550 breaks then watch out below.
So with that in mind.....I heard a rumor that tonight when Bullard speaks he's going to mention a 0.75% rate increase...
Hey somebody's got to start a rumor - might as well be me...
...because you never know - until you do!
- #148,735
- Edited 10:44am May 6, 2022 9:24am | Edited 10:44am
{quote} This is the most boring NFP that I can remember in a LONG TIME!!!! So with that in mind.....I heard a rumor that tonight when Bullard speaks he's going to mention a 0.75% rate increase...
0.75% rate increase 'rumor' already existed before FOMC, but downplayed by Powell
- #148,736
- May 6, 2022 11:18am May 6, 2022 11:18am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
{quote} This is the most boring NFP that I can remember in a LONG TIME!!!! So with that in mind.....I heard a rumor that tonight when Bullard speaks he's going to mention a 0.75% rate increase...
The biggest factor is this - What is the main driving force of inflation?
In my mind these are the top 5:
1. Energy
2. Wages
3. Food
4. Durable Goods
5. Consumables
Here's the problem: Whether it is the FED or other Central Banks all raising interest rates does is reduce the money supply and should decrease demand - think of it as putting on the brakes to the economy. Now for those who used to drive older cars (pre-ALB) if you slam on the brakes it locks the wheels and you continue in the direction you were going no matter how hard you turn the wheel. On the other hand tapping the brakes instead of the proper pressure means you plow into the car in front of you.
Interest rates cannot solve the problem of energy/oil/gas increasing. Taking out 10% of the worlds oil (Russian embargo) will continue to elevate oil prices and it takes 90-120 days to get wells on-line so don't expect any correction in the near future. The only other way to bring down oil prices is to curb demand - this is happening as I write this in China. In a lockdown you don't use oil for manufacturing (remember the Covid pictures and clear Chinese air?) So remember in 2020 when the world shut down? What happened to oil? Does anyone remember negative prices?
So if the FED pushes too hard and the economy crashes the price of oil will come down and inflation will be under control - correct?
Not necessarily. Why? The war in Ukraine. The amount of oil to fly planes, move tanks and troops is consuming much of what Russia used to export. If it escalates less oil for the world. BTW if anyone thinks this war will be over in 2022 I think you are mistaken (JMHO).
2. Wages - I can only speak about USA from personal experience. Wages in my business have increased 25% from 2021. Employees demanded more $ or they were going to leave. We advertised but there was no one to answer the ads so we retained our valuable people but we used to give 5% wage increases - this is 5x that amount and it would go down. Multiply that across the country and it will be a substantial cost to many business.
3. Food - Prepare. From reports I've been forwarded it will not be pretty in the Fall - especially in Asia and Africa where a lot of the Wheat and corn produced in the Ukraine will not be there in 2022. Most USA food producers have passed a portion of their costs along but from what I'm reading this is the tip of the iceberg.
...because you never know - until you do!
- #148,737
- May 6, 2022 12:46pm May 6, 2022 12:46pm
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Happy Friday everyone ! Hope you are all well. I've been busy with some spring cleaning and big news waiting. This is mainly just a quick hello as I read you all like a good newspaper and to wish a good weekend 
I am getting extra hints that 0580s resistance is getting tired 
. So my SL is now moved right above the high of the day, now at .0600. Well done bears !
Hi mate! What helps me is that I have a rule with certain of my strategies where price on the 1min goes a couple pips from my TP, SL, stops and limits, they are triggered at the 1min close. In the case of limits and stops, they each have a "probation" period, where it has to go in my favor early enough and, if not, I get out and replace the said limit or stop.
{quote}..0580s is a hard nut to crack, but after that = space : Thinking of the biggest 4H move from this 400pips drop. The bottom of it = 0580s. The juicy full bodied body of those four amazinghours = 60 piporoooooos of dark cold space
. So mySell stop 06273!
What's up everyone, I'm back after taking a bit of a break. EU looking very interesting. Top side liquidity grab is done, and I positioned a sell limit at 0643, which would've gotten me in on a short targeting 1:11. It only went up to 0642...I swear this
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #148,738
- May 6, 2022 1:18pm May 6, 2022 1:18pm
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
The whole week around the weekly open. {image}
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #148,739
- May 6, 2022 1:34pm May 6, 2022 1:34pm
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
{quote} Go ahead and paint my friend because this elevator has risen to almost the top. If DXY doesn't fall below 103.00 then the E/U continues to fall. (IMHO) My long last night "would" have been profitable but I went in too early and got stopped out - serves me right for NOT adhering to my rules.My personal plan is to WAIT until 9:00 am (EST) before making a decision to sell (my bias)
. We can do this!P.S{quote} To be transparent the above was a "joke" and I don't have any evidence that the FED will be doing a 0.75% increase - just 0.50% at June and 0.5% July meetings (as per Powell yesterday). After that it will put the US rate at <2.0% and STILL below fair value/normalization. (IMO) The biggest factor is this - What is the main driving force of inflation? In my mind these are the top 5: 1. Energy 2. Wages 3. Food 4. Durable Goods 5. Consumables Here's the problem: Whether it is the FED or other Central Banks all raising interest rates does is...
Good morning everyone, I hope you are doing great. Looking at the 1H chart, I think 1.0600 can be a good resistance for today. Today is also Friday, so the end of the week should be noted lol; {image}
All right, thats it for me today. Cheers all !
P.S next week, Bears really need to decently attack Wednesday low for a 3rd time, or prepare for the worse.
And a 3rd bears failure <05, after such a bulls push >06, would give the green light to consider more serious longs and close old shorts ! 3rd time the charm for bears, or for bulls!? One thing is certain, I am watching 0500 with extra attention next week, if we even get back there !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #148,740
- May 6, 2022 1:39pm May 6, 2022 1:39pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,577 Posts
105.50 BROKEN!!!
...because you never know - until you do!