Pips, charts and trades

70% is the percentage of winning trades on my account. And also an average profitability is 9% per month.
Losses are in any case part of the trading process. This is an important fact to be aware of when working with psychology.

Further movement of GOLD will be determined after testing key levels. The Daily chart shows a MACD buy signal and a reversal of the current downtrend. But at the same time, the price stopped at the EMA 100 on the four-hour chart and this will be a key level for determining further movement, since it coincides with the area where the downtrend channel creates resistance.
Probably today we will see the continuation of the fall according to the trend, but after reaching 1740, the price may turn around to retest the trend resistance. This will give an opportunity to buy cheaper if the buy signals are clear. The key levels for building a trading plan are 1737 and 1720 in case of trend continuation, 1775 and 1785 in case of resistance breakdown.

Waiting for a suitable exit point.
GOLD and Euro Dollar pair, sell both

During the NFP day, GOLD made a false breakout of the key EMA 200 level, and continues to move in a narrow horizontal channel this week, creating a support zone below it. But even so, I would not close the possibility of the downtrend continuation to 1745, 1738 and 1720, even though it was broken and the price fixed above its resistance, because key EMA resistance levels can still have an impact. At the same time, the MACD has not yet given clear signals. In order to confidently start growing, the price has to go through 1760 and 1770 and then the opportunity for growth to 1785 and 1795 will open.
The daily MACD indicates a buy and now it is important to monitor the interaction with the key levels.
The narrowing of the amplitude gives the opportunity for impulsive movement.

Bitcoin key 57700 level was not passed as easily as 52k and 55k before, and a slight correction beset the inspired investors. The upward channel continues and either it will expand to 60k, or a correction will form within this channel amplitude, up to 50k

The situation is still under the bulls control.
The Pound / Dollar tried to reverse the trend this week and broke through the lower boundary of the rising channel. But also, it returned and consolidated at the key level 1.3800. The daily MACD is still bullish, but the situation may change after reaching the key resistance at 1.38315. If so, the market may continue the movement in the horizontal channel from 1.38315 to 1.37100 (resistance displayed by the EMA 200 level). The uptrend was broken, but it is too early to talk about its completion. Despite the fact that the daily trend is declining, reaching the level of 1.39100 looks quite likely if the key 1.38315 is passed confidently.

Trading in November showed my inaccuracies in the system and the win/loss rate is 57%. The Nov month profitability is 6.55%, which does not meet my monthly goal. I have already analysed and processed my mistakes in setting take profit, assessing possible risks, indicators data, etc. Read my blog https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-loss-analysis to know more about trading history analysis.

Remember, post-trading analysis is just as important as before and during.

Now, I’m ready for the new month and the end of 2021.
Incidentally, I set a 2021 trading target of 150.00% and pointed to myfxbook and I have reached 141.17%, so I have one month to finally get to 150%
I’m sure I will make the end of the year really successful and show a result that will be an excellent motivation.

I am now trading dollar yen, which imo is going to fall to 114.0
The MACD crossed yesterday, the 100 EMA was crossed today on the 4-hour as additional confirmation.

Pound Yen will try to expand the uptrend.
Despite the fact that the pound yen is entering the overbought zone and expanding the upward channel, I do not rule out that the growth can continue to the key level of 155.200.
This is evidenced by the MACD signal line position, as well as the growth above the EMA 100 on the four-hour chart.
If 154.33 resistance is successfully passed, then 155.20 will be reached with a high probability. Resistance 154.33 is in line with EMA 200 on the same 4-hour chart.
A return to the trend channel will mean a fall to the trend support, to the area of key support 153.0

The position of the euro yen today creates an opportunity to sell within the current correction.
The 30 minute EMA 100 is now trying to keep pressure on the 136.100 level. And there is a prospect of maintaining this pressure and even a decline to 135.500, where the 200 EMA is located on the hourly chart. Further formation of a correction is possible when moving below 135.500, to the borders of the expected rectangle 134.300 – 134.100 It is still too early to talk about breaking through the correction for the further upward impulse, which is clearly pronounced on the daily timeframe. I believe that the correction is not yet complete.
Confirmatory indicator MACD on the four-hour chart shows a signal of further decline.
But nevertheless, I consider growth above 137.150 as a prerequisite for further growth with breaking through the level of 137.500.\

The situation on the euro franc pair looks like a turning point.
The line of the thread, (draw it through the point of the previous correction), has lost its support and the channel is no longer holding back the price. MACD indicates that the signal line is crossed in the downward direction, which also indicates a possible continuation of the fall.
But there is still a key 50% retracement level ahead, which coincides with the 100 EMA on the 4-hour chart. In addition, the EMA 200 is already providing support.
Judging by the fact that the RSI has not yet reached oversold, the movement is not over yet.

The previous forecast of the euro franc downtrend was correct. The currency pair really lost the support of the channel and continued its fall.
Now I propose to look at the situation more broadly. It should be important that in the higher term, an area of amplitude narrowing has been formed. This is clearly visible on the daily chart. There are several key support levels that will significantly prevent a fall below 1.02, 1.01, 1.00.
In turn, the key resistance at 1.034 and EMA 100 is currently the most likely high of the current local direction.
The main trend that can be seen on the weekly chart is downward. Based on this, it is worth counting on updating the minimum, and falling to the seven-year mark, which was reached back in 2015 at a price of 0.965. But this is a long-term option in which the Euro loses its strength above the franc.
A more positive temporary option for the euro would be the beginning of this trend correction and a return to the level of 1.046, where EMA 200 is located and growth to 1.06

The positive part of my prev. Euro analysis has been fulfilled and the Euro Franc has now reached 1.05 where it met the EMA 200 on the daily chart. I’m looking at the next key resistance at 1.06, where the pair was last time back in February. The current price is 1.047 that is about 79% of the local Feb decline. But I also want to note that the higher trend is downward and this is clearly visible on the weekly chart. Therefore, the current growth is probably just a correction, although the MACD signals a buy opportunity. If 1.06 is passed within this trend, I will expand the options up to a possible increase to the key resistances of 1.07 and 1.09.
The nearest support is at 1.0401, so there is a possibility of a short-term price decline, especially since the four-hour MACD has turned into a sell signal.

The pound dollar trade analysis.
a brief analysis of my decision on the recent pound dollar trade May 13.
1.21809 is opening price near the key support level at 1.2173, it can be visible on 15 minutes. The currency pair started a consolidation, and despite the downtrend, I traded within the horizontal movement, in the short term.
The global trend is indeed downward, but with a clear divergence on the four hours MACD, so even in the longer term, it was possible to hold the trade until May 18th.
The close was at 1.22114 on a take profit level, which was set based on the EMA 100 level on the fifteen minute chart.

July showed me some important points to work on and I will make a post about it at the beginning of August, because post-trading analysis is very important for me and is a base process in improving a trading system.
The July result is 7.8%, which is certainly a natural recession after a long three-month period with an average profitability of 13%.
However, this month there were quite huge trades. So, one of the trades got into the top 6 by growth percentage per trade (10.74%)

Euro dollar may continue to rise after a temporary correction. This prediction can be made according to a fairly clear MACD signal on the hourly chart. EMA 100 and EMA 200 indicators on the hourly and four-hour charts will help to finally decide on the further movement.
On the hourly, these lines are now resisting further growth and the price is right below them, making them key levels in the 1.0200 area. On the 4-hour chart, watch the EMA 100, which has already been tested at 1.02085 but has not yet been broken, and the EMA 200, which is obtaining more resistance power as the distance between the EMA lines narrows. Level 1.0283 is a key resistance point and the highest in the last month.
As for the MACD on the four-hour chart, there are no preconditions for growth so far, but everything can change if the price grows above 1.02085. Anyway there is no divergence on MACD.
If the option is not confirmed, then it is likely that the corrective trend that formed after the rapid fall to 1.0000 will be changed and we will see new attempts to beat the key levels of 1.01 and 1.00

Euro Dollar narrows the amplitude channel.
A narrowing of the channel, or a decrease in the amplitude of market fluctuations, especially with a horizontal or close to horizontal movement, is always a very clear sign of further impulse that, like a tightened spring, will jump up or down.
This situation is now on the Euro Dollar, which has fallen to a critical value over the past month and is trying to get out of the depth called 1.000.
The correction, which began to move up with a quite confident amplitude, gave hope to become the beginning of a return at least to the values of 2017. But as we see now, the correctional channel has sharply reduced its amplitude.
Of course, on the Daily chart there is a clear MACD indicating further growth, which may lead to positive thoughts for the Euro. At the same time, a very weak, barely noticeable divergence appeared on the 4-hour chart. Price fluctuations repeatedly cross the EMA 100 level, but without reaching EMA 200, the chart goes down again. From this we can conclude that EMA 200 will be a key resistance level, and in case of an upward momentum, it will be an indicator of growth to 1.0340 and 1.6070. In case of fall, It will be more difficult to determine end level, due to several support levels (1.0140, 1.0125, 1.0100).
If the first level is broken by downward momentum, I would trade on the basis that the next one can become a key support and stop the fall.

The first 2 trades in August with profit of 6.5%. This pace will fulfill this month's trading plan and possibly cover the lower figures in the previous one. Updated information about the latest trades is already on my website.

The week of 15-19 August destroyed the monthly gains of the Euro Dollar.
After the correction to a maximum of 1.0368, the Euro dollar is again trying to return to the 1.000 value. It can be concluded already after the breakout of the EMA 100 and EMA 200 levels on the four-hour chart and the MACD signal line cross, which was shortly before.
At the moment, I do not see such a level of support that could prevent the reaching of the 1.000 mark.
The question that interests everyone the most is whether the fall will be lower. At this stage, I believe not, but I will not trade on this assumption without clear indicators.
I managed to take profit early in the week on the fall, but then I had to be careful not to hit one of the support levels formed by the breached upward correction trend.

Euro Dollar has reached its destination 1.000.
Now the interlocutory conclusions about the further movement are the following:
- on the MACD daily signal line indicates further decline, but more importantly, with equal price levels on July 14 and today, MACD levels are very different, which is a divergence or its beginning.
- in any case, the situation looks like that even if the key level of 1.000 is broken, in the long term, the market will return again above the key level 1.000.
- if the level of equality will be impregnable, then I would suggest the level of 1.0100 and 1.1830 as resistance levels and 1.02850 and 1.03650 as key resistance levels and possible boundaries of horizontal movement.
- the current fluctuations between 1.000 and 1.03650 can be the beginning of consolidation with the prospect of further breaking through key boundary levels.