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vsa with Malcolm

  • #35,661
  • Edited 4:04pm Apr 14, 2022 2:56am | Edited 4:04pm
EJ looking to go long on 5m, same UJ and CJ. short NU
UPDATE> EJ BE hit..CJ BE hit after weakness came in
> NU almost stopped me out but heavy supply came in, still running
> UJ more strenght came in and it s marking price up, BE set, trade running
> UC 1hr background weakness, scalped 5m long into that hrly fib based on a lack of supply after obvious strenght, TP hit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 5m long waiting on a NS, low vol test of spring.png Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CJ long 5m SH accumulat spring, waiting on test,.png Size: 43 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: EJ 5m BE trade.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: NU 5m short entry.png Size: 64 KB
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  • #35,662
  • Apr 14, 2022 9:31am Apr 14, 2022 9:31am
am also looking for a scalp short on EC, hrly background weakness, range breakout, 5m pullback and a SOW would be sufficient..altho it s getting kinda late in the day and volume tends to die off except late day news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,663
  • Apr 14, 2022 1:24pm Apr 14, 2022 1:24pm
Quoting 1odi
EJ looking to go long on 5m, same UJ and CJ. short NU UPDATE> EJ BE hit..CJ BE hit after weakness came in > NU almost stopped me out but heavy supply came in, still running > UJ more strenght came in and it s marking price up, BE set, trade running > UC 1hr background weakness, scalped 5m long into that hrly fib based on a lack of supply after obvious strenght, TP hit {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
much of good material ! nice
Daytrader
  • #35,664
  • Apr 14, 2022 1:40pm Apr 14, 2022 1:40pm
Nasdaq

1-Selling upthrust
2-Selling upthrust
3-No demand
4-Trap Up move
5-Reversal
Direction: Down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 52 KB
Daytrader
  • #35,665
  • Edited 1:03pm Apr 19, 2022 1:35am | Edited 1:03pm
didn t trade yesterday but had marked out 2 oportunities even on Easter monday. kinda late in the day but essentially that s the nice low vol test i m looking for after SOW or SOS depending on the background. could be a slow week.
EDIT> Oil potential long scenario, hrly background still pretty bullish, plus yesterday s vol shows buying of the lows, was that real buying or market open/close spike?
i guess we ll see when price dips further?/>>no trades today.
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  • #35,666
  • Apr 20, 2022 6:16pm Apr 20, 2022 6:16pm
For those using MT4, I made some minor adjustments to this HLC indicator that might be useful to some:
Quoting Macallik
Made some adjustments. Looks like crap when you zoom out too far, but for the two most zoomed in settings, it looks good imo: Examples of perfect zoom levels: {image}{image} Example of too zoomed out: {image} The close of the bar is the part that was irritating me the most. It turns out, the close is represented by the '|' symbol being turned 90 degrees. If you'd like to make the line thinner/thicker, you would chose a heavier font that is on your computer. To make a modification, right click the indicator in MT4 Navigator, select 'Modify' and scroll...

Also, one thing that has helped me for backtesting on MT4 is to limit the volume data that is shown by creating fixed minimums/maximums on the custom volume indicator. If the average volume of a pair is 96,000 and dips to 93,000 when there's no demand, there really is no point to show volume from zero -> 92,999. It's redundant and distracts from the overall volume story and teasing out the nuance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the other hand, if you cut out the redundant volume data (0 to 93,000 in this case), the story becomes easier to follow:
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  • #35,667
  • Apr 21, 2022 2:35am Apr 21, 2022 2:35am
got a trade in.. GA short, weak background, 5m weakness at fib came in and current HOD was taken out, ND under the form of an upthrust, sell stop just below that with 5 pips above the high accounting for spread more or less. almost kicked me out, about 2 pips short, and went back. we ll see if it goes, main target would be the previous hrly lows
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,668
  • Apr 26, 2022 2:32pm Apr 26, 2022 2:32pm
is it good to take entry after failed test like this which I marked?
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Daytrader
  • #35,669
  • May 1, 2022 10:31am May 1, 2022 10:31am
We all set for massive market tankage ? monthly support breaks on es do and nq we have large moves down coming. Monthly has been very volatile with uh volumes
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #35,670
  • Edited 10:25am May 10, 2022 10:07am | Edited 10:25am
Markets feel like theyre shifting from trending to choppy range, trade the edges.

I've been holding onto this EJ long for hours, price made a few attempts at the low, but every time it tried to break 137.08 someone bought it. You couldn't really tell volume wise, but watching price tick, it would speed up significantly every time it touched 137.08.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Heres the M15 chart, the bars I marked in blue.. nothing special on the volume but price was moving quickly. Now if there was in indicator that measured speed of movement.

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  • #35,671
  • May 10, 2022 11:01pm May 10, 2022 11:01pm
Quoting Anotan
Markets feel like theyre shifting from trending to choppy range, trade the edges. I've been holding onto this EJ long for hours, price made a few attempts at the low, but every time it tried to break 137.08 someone bought it. You couldn't really tell volume wise, but watching price tick, it would speed up significantly every time it touched 137.08. {image} Heres the M15 chart, the bars I marked in blue.. nothing special on the volume but price was moving quickly. Now if there was in indicator that measured speed of movement. {image}
EJ is finally moving in the right direction.

I think there will be a little bit of supply around 137.68ish, so there I'll take a partial maybe move stops up to BE then watch and see what price does at 138.06-138.30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,672
  • Edited 5:48am May 11, 2022 3:19am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting Anotan
Markets feel like theyre shifting from trending to choppy range, trade the edges.
These choppy range markets, beware if you see price jump suddenly.

On the euro news they pushed EC up very quickly, good opportunity to go short.

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Took some partials and brought stops down. From here we will see how things look at 3670.

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Closed out EC. +40

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  • #35,673
  • May 11, 2022 4:23am May 11, 2022 4:23am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} EJ is finally moving in the right direction. I think there will be a little bit of supply around 137.68ish, so there I'll take a partial maybe move stops up to BE then watch and see what price does at 138.06-138.30. {image}
Took losses on EJ, UJ is melting right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,674
  • May 23, 2022 1:34pm May 23, 2022 1:34pm
Quoting Macallik
{quote} {image} 1 - Prior Distribution that was never (imo) truly resolved. I think there's a possibility it will be retested A - Down bar w/ a narrowing range, closing off the lows. Potential accumulation but given the SoW in the background, it's just as likely distribution imo B - Down bar, narrower range & highest volume on the chart. Potential accumulation but given the SoW in the background, I don't trust it as readily. C - Test-esque bar with 2 caveats: 1) Although lower than the last 2 bars, it's still high volume. 2) Most of the bar is actually...
Daily chart price action takes forever to play out IRL . The initially potential distribution level was a blip before price continued higher. Watching the current price action to see if a breakdown does occur.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A: UHV Up bar as a SoW. Created a line in the sand based on the bar low

  1. Heavy volume down bar that closes off its lows. Subtle demand inside the bar
  2. No Demand
  3. Test bar
  4. No Demand
  5. Widening spread but only a minor increase in volume. Mildly bearish
  6. Closing well off the lows on increasing volume. Demand coming back in
  7. Majority of the bar is above the prior close, so bulls took control, however the volume was high and they barely made any progress.
  8. Still a few hours until the close, but looks like a low volume test. Will be confirmed if tomorrow's price action is bullish. I might put a sell-order in below today's lows in case we get a failed test -> breakdown

Open to any alternative interpretations. IMO like the chart is starting to mushroom, but bar 6 & bar 8 shows there might be some strength still present.

  • #35,675
  • May 23, 2022 4:36pm May 23, 2022 4:36pm
Just step back from chart a moment and ask 1 question ... is there a mushroom top happening?

If so wait till the last push up and a definite SOW like an upthrust..

Not yet would be my read

HTH
  • #35,676
  • May 24, 2022 9:31am May 24, 2022 9:31am
Quoting SyntaxError
Just step back from chart a moment and ask 1 question ... is there a mushroom top happening? If so wait till the last push up and a definite SOW like an upthrust.. Not yet would be my read HTH
My TradingView Chart has a bad print for volume so I used my MT4 chart instead, but I actually drew what I perceive to be a mushroom on my TradingView chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Can you breakdown what you look for when it comes to mushrooming in case I'm misreading things?
  • #35,677
  • May 24, 2022 2:52pm May 24, 2022 2:52pm
You have got it right with the mushroom top

Ask another question with the time frames used on the USDJPY.

Look at 60 or 2H or 4H time frames and you will find weakness and a downtrend for quite a while and the SOW have already occured

You should be short
  • #35,678
  • May 24, 2022 3:44pm May 24, 2022 3:44pm
Have a look at this standard Wyckoff logic image ... this is what the mushroom top is all about
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  • #35,679
  • May 26, 2022 7:12am May 26, 2022 7:12am
Wondering if today UJ will end up being a longer term bullish shakeout.

UJ M15

During London there was a very violent down move, which price tested out and pushed up on increasing volume which I think could be buying interest. Just have to be careful of resistance at 127.2x

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Plus there was a HV down move which sent price up on May 24th.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,680
  • May 26, 2022 12:44pm May 26, 2022 12:44pm
Didn't see any of that so appreciate you for sharing Anotan. I missed the entry I wanted on the 23rd's failed test, so I am still stalking an entry but I will keep an eye on things.
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