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Trading Focal Points -- "A Leap Of Faith"...

  • #401
  • Apr 7, 2022 6:36am Apr 7, 2022 6:36am
EURUSD 30 mn
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  • #402
  • Apr 7, 2022 8:22am Apr 7, 2022 8:22am
Hi

I am an old school guy so using old i mean first indicator and using it to trade. I know that first indicator had some deficiencies but still i am more comfortable with it. I am trading Gold by putting limit orders at target price instead of chasing the direction. It is tricky way to trade because you do not know when retracement will happen but still i am using it. Here is my yesterday trade.
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  • #403
  • Apr 7, 2022 8:25am Apr 7, 2022 8:25am
Quoting parisboy
EURUSD 5 mn {image}
5min, 256/128/64/32/16
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30min, 256/128/64/32/16
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30min, 128/64/32/16
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  • #404
  • Apr 7, 2022 8:28am Apr 7, 2022 8:28am
Here is another picture where price is trying to get the target price(yellow line). I will have my pending orders waiting for price to come
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  • #405
  • Apr 7, 2022 10:27am Apr 7, 2022 10:27am
Quoting aahmad29
Here is another picture where price is trying to get the target price(yellow line). I will have my pending orders waiting for price to come {image}
Another flying price of GOLD caught by my pending orders.
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  • #406
  • Apr 7, 2022 11:52am Apr 7, 2022 11:52am
Another short trade with scalping method. Candle close above Red MA when Red MA is pointing up above all other MA's (sometimes above two MA's) and previous trade rebound point. It means that this is overbought situation but remember not in all cases.
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  • #407
  • Apr 7, 2022 12:38pm Apr 7, 2022 12:38pm
DAX 1 mn

Double Bottom

Second Bottom > First Bottom

Trend is UP

Jim Tillman and Double Bottom

When there is a double bottom or a double top, you should consider that there might be a cycle changing direction half-way between those two points.
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  • #408
  • Apr 7, 2022 1:13pm Apr 7, 2022 1:13pm
Quoting parisboy
DAX 1 mn Double Bottom Second Bottom > First Bottom Trend is UP Jim Tillman and Double Bottom When there is a double bottom or a double top, you should consider that there might be a cycle changing direction half-way between those two points. {image} {image} {image}
Only ?
What about if second bottom is < first bottom ?
like on pictures here ?
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  • #409
  • Apr 7, 2022 1:36pm Apr 7, 2022 1:36pm
Two more trades at same rebound point but overall MA's are showing uptrend in GOLD and Lets see if bottom MA is broken for downtrend or not.
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  • #410
  • Apr 7, 2022 2:17pm Apr 7, 2022 2:17pm
Quoting js497
{quote} Only ? What about if second bottom is < first bottom ? like on pictures here ? {image}{image}
Trend should be down. But we need statistics
  • #411
  • Apr 7, 2022 2:45pm Apr 7, 2022 2:45pm
EURUSD Monthly
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  • #412
  • Apr 7, 2022 3:18pm Apr 7, 2022 3:18pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Trend should be down. But we need statistics
Specify parisboy...
  • #413
  • Apr 7, 2022 3:36pm Apr 7, 2022 3:36pm
Quoting js497
{quote} Specify parisboy...

Iit would be good to have statistics to validate the patterns to convert them in Action Signal with a % of probability
  • #414
  • Apr 7, 2022 3:53pm Apr 7, 2022 3:53pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Iit would be good to have statistics to validate the patterns to convert them in Action Signal with a % of probability
you are not enough clear in details..

Maybe Like it ?

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Be quiet... the calculation is based on fractal, not CMA. This one said... it should be almost the same with little difference.
Generaly, the trend patterns like M1 or W1 for example, gives a better % compared to reversal patterns like. What i have looked quickly. But not more in detail yet.
  • #415
  • Edited 4:09pm Apr 7, 2022 3:56pm | Edited 4:09pm
Quoting js497
{quote} you are not enough clear in details.. Maybe Like it ? {image} {image} {image} Be quiet... the calculation is based on fractal, not CMA. This one said... it should be almost the same with little difference. Generaly, the trend patterns like M1 or W1 for example, gives a better % compared to reversal patterns like. What i have looked. But not more in detail yet.

This classificaion is known as the "Merrill Waves", the first attempt to rationalize Waves
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf M&W WAVE PATTERNS - Arthur A. Merrill - 1980.pdf   470 KB | 609 downloads
File Type: pdf Arthur Merrill - Filtered Waves, Basic Theory.pdf   3.5 MB | 518 downloads
  • #416
  • Apr 7, 2022 4:05pm Apr 7, 2022 4:05pm
All you have to know about Waves !
Attached File(s)
File Type: pptx WAVES A STATISTICAL APPROACH english.pptx   646 KB | 368 downloads
  • #417
  • Apr 7, 2022 4:06pm Apr 7, 2022 4:06pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} They are "Merrill Waves", the first attempt to rationalize Waves {image} {image}
Yes, my picture stats, shows all pattern on data loaded.
And forecast the next wave based on 2 or 3 repetition.
example : Based on W5, you get almost of time a M15, next you get almost of time a W14
same for triple repetition (3 patterns).
  • #418
  • Apr 7, 2022 4:12pm Apr 7, 2022 4:12pm
Quoting parisboy
All you have to know about Waves ! {file}
Yes, i know.
but if you want stats on double B/T, you need 4 swings ...
or we can based it on 3... more simple.
2x patterns where the 3rd swing of last pattern is counted for a total of 4 swings (with 2 patterns) ... to see DB/DT
  • #419
  • Apr 7, 2022 4:19pm Apr 7, 2022 4:19pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Iit would be good to have statistics to validate the patterns to convert them in Action Signal with a % of probability
What do you think by "it would be good to have statistics to validate the patterns" ? you have already... connector, etc.. or other thing?
  • #420
  • Apr 7, 2022 4:23pm Apr 7, 2022 4:23pm
Quoting js497
{quote} What do you think by "it would be good to have statistics to validate the patterns" ? you have already... connector, etc.. or other thing?

we were talking about Double Botoms (or Double Tops)

a) you cannot master 32 configurations M & W patterns -which moreover are very close from each other.

b) the question is not only to identify the most common patterns but to define "rules" (even of thumb) to use them for trading
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