Trading Focal Points -- "A Leap Of Faith"... | Page 17 | Forex Factory

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Trading Focal Points -- "A Leap Of Faith"...

  • #321
  • Mar 31, 2022 8:50am Mar 31, 2022 8:50am
Quoting parisboy
Another vision of the cocepts Sinewaves Return to the Mean Saving Acoount Oserve that the 2 surfaces (in red) located UNDER the CMA 128 added together are more or less equal to the only surface (in green) located ABOVE CMA 128 (and Extension) {image} {image}
@parisboy -- that is so, so cool!! I just now browsed through many pairs and can see that pattern -- it's easy to spot. So -- if CMA 128 cuts through CMA 16 (your green surface) then you are looking for the CMA 16 to create a red surface of approximately the same area as the red surface preceding the green surface by crossing the CMA 128.

So, for this pattern all you need are CMA 128 and CMA 16.
  • #322
  • Mar 31, 2022 9:44am Mar 31, 2022 9:44am
interesting

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next,

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  • #323
  • Mar 31, 2022 10:34am Mar 31, 2022 10:34am
CADJPY is near to end bullish run. Price close to SMA 200
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Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #324
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:01pm Mar 31, 2022 1:01pm
Quoting aahmad29
CADJPY is near to end bullish run. Price close to SMA 200 {image}
Very nice. And you mean "bearish" run, right?
  • #325
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:06pm Mar 31, 2022 1:06pm
Quoting js497
interesting {image} next, {image}
Okay -- but I'm not sure where the trade is. Where are you entering trades?
  • #326
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:12pm Mar 31, 2022 1:12pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @parisboy -- that is so, so cool!! I just now browsed through many pairs and can see that pattern -- it's easy to spot. So -- if CMA 128 cuts through CMA 16 (your green surface) then you are looking for the CMA 16 to create a red surface of approximately the same area as the red surface preceding the green surface by crossing the CMA 128. So, for this pattern all you need are CMA 128 and CMA 16.
R4M, you are the computer genius.

I am just the guy who draw lines and color Charts with Paint like kids in elementary school.

most of what I do is very simple and cool.
  • #327
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:26pm Mar 31, 2022 1:26pm
The Tillman Method

Jim Tillman (1990) of Cycletrend Inc. has developed a number of methods for cycle projections.

Tillman uses centered moving averages of half-cycles after having determined the dominant cycle periods. Tillman's analysis concentrates on what he calls "focal points." Focal points occur when 3 or more half-cycle moving averages cross at roughly the same location.

In Figure 19.17, only crossovers of 2 x half-cycle moving averages (11-day and 21 -day) are shown, but Tillman's observations can still be made.
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  • #328
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:29pm Mar 31, 2022 1:29pm
The Tillman Method (2)

One observation is that focal points occur at roughly the halfway point of cycle advances or declines. Notice the horizontal lines at the 41-day cycle peaks, troughs, and crossovers in Figure 19.17. The crossovers occur roughly halfway between the peak and trough in points.

The practical problem from this observation is that by the time the lagging half-cycle moving averages have crossed, prices have usually already reached their projection. The crossover thus occurs when the cycle is ending its run up or down. When you see a crossover in an upward leg of a cycle, you know that the upward leg is about to peak or already has.

In Figure 19.18, lines are drawn through the high or low of a cycle through the focal point.

The upward sloping lines will continue through to the high of the cycle, and the downward sloping lines will continue through to the low of the cycle. The time from the low (high) to the focal point will equal, approximately, the time to that high (low).

In our example in Figure 19.18, the time from the first low close to the focal point was 11 days, and 11 days later, the high was reached. The crossover is the center of the cosine wave. It is the center in time as well as distance.

If we then draw a trend line between 2 successive focal points, we have an estimate of the direction of the next higher order cycle.

Lines drawn parallel to that trend line to the immediate highs and lows will show that the trend is roughly midway between the parallel lines and that they represent the boundaries of the cycle, just as the earlier lines parallel to the moving averages
showed.

The advantage of using these parallel lines formed from the trend between focal points is that they can be projected into the future, whereas the moving average parallel lines had to be drawn freehand as a guess.
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  • #329
  • Mar 31, 2022 1:38pm Mar 31, 2022 1:38pm
The Tillman Method (3)

As it rums out, the upper parallel line was broken, indicating that the hypothetical 81-day or longer cycle turned upward again, and that the low in October was a higher order low. To see where that longer cycle is likely to go, we need to analyze the next higher order 81+ day cycles

When the parallel lines are decisively broken, we know that the next higher order cycle has changed direction.

This makes sense because the parallel lines define the boundaries of the lower order cycle. If they are broken, it must be due to the change in direction of the next higher order cycle.

For example, look at early October in Figure 19.19.

The lower parallel trend line of the next cycle larger than the 41-day was broken downward. This indicated that the next higher order cycle, say the 81-day or longer, was reversing downward.

When we draw the trend line between the 2 focal points on the way down, we can estimate that the crossover occurred when the 41-day low was being formed, and we can draw the 2 parallel lines to that trend, which tell us the approximate bounds of the next rally.

By placing a buy order then in the vicinity of 1,185, with appropriate exit stops, we estimate that the 41-day rally will at least run up to the upper parallel line in the vicinity of 1,210.

Tillman's method, therefore, is much more precise in measuring not only the cycles, but also their estimated projections.
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  • #330
  • Mar 31, 2022 2:40pm Mar 31, 2022 2:40pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Okay -- but I'm not sure where the trade is. Where are you entering trades?
i showed mainly the pattern of DB or DT followed by a retracement on mid line after the pattern.
the trade entry was on where price retraces on midline after DT or DB
  • #331
  • Mar 31, 2022 3:38pm Mar 31, 2022 3:38pm
Quoting js497
{quote} i showed mainly the pattern of DB or DT followed by a retracement on mid line after the pattern. the trade entry was on where price retraces on midline after DT or DB
Midline retrace. I see -- very nice. Thank you, @js498.
  • #332
  • Mar 31, 2022 3:44pm Mar 31, 2022 3:44pm
BTC-USD 1 mn

A Onz Bottom Pattern

Opened a Long Position

Entry at the Second Low of CMA 16 (red)

Target 46275 +/- 115

Low 45.125
Estimated Focal Point 45.700

45.700 - 45.125 = 575
45.700 + 575 = 46.225
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  • #333
  • Mar 31, 2022 3:55pm Mar 31, 2022 3:55pm
Quoting parisboy
BTC-USD 1 mn A Onz Bottom Pattern Opened a Long Position Entry at the Second Low of CMA 16 (red) Target 46275 +/- 115 Low 45.125 Estimated Focal Point 45.700 45.700 - 45.125 = 575 45.700 + 575 = 46.225 {image} {image}
How did you know how to draw that dotted-line to get your BUY entry? Were you waiting for the PA to turn upward?

Also, what is an "Onz Bottom" pattern? Did you mean "Double Bottom" pattern?
  • #334
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:00pm Mar 31, 2022 4:00pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} How did you know how to draw that dotted-line to get your BUY entry? Were you waiting for the PA to turn upward?
The dotted line was the Ascending Angle of CMA 16 (red) when it turned UP

I have kept it to observe eventual changes
  • #335
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:08pm Mar 31, 2022 4:08pm
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  • #336
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:31pm Mar 31, 2022 4:31pm
Follow up
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  • #337
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:33pm Mar 31, 2022 4:33pm
A new indicator -- R4M-Sinewaves-Return-To-Mean. I think you're going to like this one. It is based on @parisboy's post #320 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13952669) where he introduced a new and simple concept -- "Sinewaves Return To Mean".

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Note that in the settings you can change which two SMA's to compare. The default is SMA(16) and SMA(128).

Check-out the chart below -- this is way too cool. I've attached multiple instances of this indi to the same chart -- SMAs 16x128, 32x128 and 64x128. Notice how the Double Top / Bottoms (DTB) jump out. I'm not sure I marked them all correctly and I'm not sure yet how best to take advantage of what I'm seeing -- but do you see how charting a few simple SMA lines in different ways reveals a ton of clues?

In a single glance you can look for Double Tops / Bottoms and Sinewaves returning to mean...

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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 R4M-Sinewaves-Return-To-Mean.ex4   57 KB | 575 downloads
  • #338
  • Mar 31, 2022 4:40pm Mar 31, 2022 4:40pm
Quoting robots4me
A new indicator -- R4M-Sinewaves-Return-To-Mean. I think you're going to like this one. It is based on @parisboy's post #320 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13952669) where he introduced a new and simple concept -- "Sinewaves Return To Mean". {image} Note that in the settings you can change which two SMA's to compare. The default is SMA(16) and SMA(128). Check-out the chart below -- this is way too cool. I've attached multiple instances of this indi to the same chart -- SMAs 16x128, 32x128 and 64x128. Notice how...
Wow that's freaking awesome, well done R4M
  • #339
  • Mar 31, 2022 5:09pm Mar 31, 2022 5:09pm
Quoting robots4me
A new indicator -- R4M-Sinewaves-Return-To-Mean. I think you're going to like this one. It is based on @parisboy's post #320 (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13952669) where he introduced a new and simple concept -- "Sinewaves Return To Mean". {image} Note that in the settings you can change which two SMA's to compare. The default is SMA(16) and SMA(128). Check-out the chart below -- this is way too cool. I've attached multiple instances of this indi to the same chart -- SMAs 16x128, 32x128 and 64x128. Notice how...
Awesome. As usual great work.
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #340
  • Mar 31, 2022 7:53pm Mar 31, 2022 7:53pm
Since the shaded surfaces in the R4M-Sinewaves-Return-To-Mean indicator hide the underlying PA, then you might consider overlaying with a Heiken Ashi indicator so you can see the bars. Heiken Ashi provides another benefit -- you get to see the true Price Action (PA) that the extended portions of the SMAs don't take into account. In this way you can discern whether the market is continuing as before or changing its behavior.

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Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Heiken Ashi.ex4   12 KB | 294 downloads
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