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Trading Focal Points -- "A Leap Of Faith"...

  • #221
  • Mar 29, 2022 7:31pm Mar 29, 2022 7:31pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Beautiful chart. I also see a Double Top. In fact, I often have an easier time spotting Double Tops / Bottoms than Focal Points. However, with Double Tops / Bottoms you don't get the guesstimated Target Price. Thank you @aahmad29...
Hey robots, nice thread, and also nice tool, as usual.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #222
  • Mar 30, 2022 1:43am Mar 30, 2022 1:43am
Quoting aahmad29
Patience paid off on CADJPY M15 time frame. {image}
Hi @aahmad29. I have a favor to ask -- would you mind sharing the configuration settings you are using. Also, are you running one or multiple instances of the indi (using different settings)? We all understand that what works for you is not guaranteed to work for others -- so, you are under no obligation. I'm curious to learn how you are using the indi and compare it with how I'm using it. Thanks...

Here is what I am currently using, but by no means would I claim it is optimal for all pairs / time frames, etc:

3 instances of the indi:
(1) 64x128, Tolerance of '1'
(2) 16x128, Tolerance of '1'
(3) 16x32, Tolerance of '1'
  • #223
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:16am Mar 30, 2022 2:16am
Thats my unknown, how to know which probablity to get midline of 256 or inferior... ?
Too, im testing my type of CMA, more stable, more clear, more accurated on crossing, created it 3 years ago already, decided to test more with focal.
check the picture...

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  • #224
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:20am Mar 30, 2022 2:20am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hi @aahmad29. I have a favor to ask -- would you mind sharing the configuration settings you are using. Also, are you running one or multiple instances of the indi (using different settings)? We all understand that what works for you is not guaranteed to work for others -- so, you are under no obligation. I'm curious to learn how you are using the indi and compare it with how I'm using it. Thanks... Here is what I am currently using, but by no means would I claim it is optimal for all pairs / time frames, etc: 3 instances of the indi: (1)...
Only one instance. Yes but this is true that i also used other methods for verification. I already mentioned in earlier post e.g looking for trend in bigger time frame. Suppose i am using M1 time frame then i will check M15.

I will test three instances as you mentioned and then will let you know about results

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY.png Size: 9 KB
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #225
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:31am Mar 30, 2022 2:31am
Quoting js497
Thats my unknown, how to know which probablity to get midline of 256 or inferior... ? Too, im testing my type of CMA, more stable, more clear, more accurated on crossing, created it 3 years ago already, decided to test more with focal. check the picture... {image}
@js497 -- what you write is probably true for most of us, as well -- with the exception of @parisboy...

Look it -- not only is this new and different for most us, it is highly discretionary. So there won't be a "one shoe fits all" configuration. Please don't be afraid to share your findings -- both good and bad. Not only will we all improve, but it also helps me to better figure out the boundary between what can and can not be coded.

If everyone keeps their observations to themselves then I'll do the same and the thread will stagnate. I'll stop thinking of ways to improve the indicator -- or, if I do improve it -- I may decide not to share it. Why should I?
  • #226
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:32am Mar 30, 2022 2:32am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} Only one instance. Yes but this is true that i also used other methods for verification. I already mentioned in earlier post e.g looking for trend in bigger time frame. Suppose i am using M1 time frame then i will check M15. I will test three instances as you mentioned and then will let you know about results {image}
Excellent -- this is great. Thank you...
  • #227
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:41am Mar 30, 2022 2:41am
Quoting js497
Thats my unknown, how to know which probablity to get midline of 256 or inferior... ? Too, im testing my type of CMA, more stable, more clear, more accurated on crossing, created it 3 years ago already, decided to test more with focal. check the picture... {image}
I just now looked at your chart and you know the first thing that caught my eye saw? It was the Double Top -- so, immediately I'm looking to go short. At that point I don't need the Focal Points unless I want the guesstimated Target Price.

The most important thing for me is to get the direction right. The guesstimated Target Price is kind of like "icing on the cake". That may not be the case for you or anyone else -- but I trade conservatively and I'm happy to bank some green Pips and leave some on the table. If my trade yields 0.5*ADR then I'm good to go and I'll exit, regardless of the Target Price.
  • #228
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:48am Mar 30, 2022 2:48am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Hi @aahmad29. I have a favor to ask -- would you mind sharing the configuration settings you are using. Also, are you running one or multiple instances of the indi (using different settings)? We all understand that what works for you is not guaranteed to work for others -- so, you are under no obligation. I'm curious to learn how you are using the indi and compare it with how I'm using it. Thanks... Here is what I am currently using, but by no means would I claim it is optimal for all pairs / time frames, etc: 3 instances of the indi: (1)...
How do you use three instances? I mean how do you get confirmation that signal is valid?
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #229
  • Edited 3:32am Mar 30, 2022 2:53am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} I just now looked at your chart and you know the first thing that caught my eye saw? It was the Double Top -- so, immediately I'm looking to go short. At that point I don't need the Focal Points unless I want the guesstimated Target Price. The most important thing for me is to get the direction right. The guesstimated Target Price is kind of like "icing on the cake". That may not be the case for you or anyone else -- but I trade conservatively and I'm happy to bank some green Pips and leave some on the table. If my trade yields 0.5*ADR then...
I understand you R4M,
however... if you check my CMA on the left, periodicaly it was the end of bottom, it have to be up. I taken the bottom of the range 256 and 128.
Now my question is eligible, How to know which midline that the price will "respect", thats my big unknown, like you can see on picture, price has touched 32/16 midline, below the 256/126/64/32/16. Knowing that the price follows the average with up and down around of it.
An idea @Parisboy?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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you can see swing from minor cycles in cyan, and red of my future setup failed.

Edit : I think that, im in error, like high/low or low/high represents half of period of 256 in average, so If 256 turns UP from low, it means its down direction... and inversely. My mistake. Correct me if im wrong @Parisboy ?
  • #230
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:54am Mar 30, 2022 2:54am
CADJPY M30 Time frame. One chart is with one instance and other is with three instances as mentioned by robots4me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY1.png Size: 30 KB
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #231
  • Mar 30, 2022 2:59am Mar 30, 2022 2:59am
GU Chart not taking this has the h4 tidanes short still but just watching 1 pair atm waiting.

3 applied as robo with tidanes as direction.

Second chart same again but just showing the main ma's
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Pip Student
  • #232
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:06am Mar 30, 2022 3:06am
Quoting aahmad29
{quote} How do you use three instances? I mean how do you get confirmation that signal is valid?
First of all -- I don't think of them as "signals". To me, a "signal" is a visual mark at the CURRENT timestamp where you decide whether or not to open or close a trade. In the case of Focal Points, I'm looking for "wake-up calls". That is -- the indicator has detected a Focal Point and I need to take a closer look.

I don't know how to confirm or validate a Focal Point, and I'm not sure @parisboy does either. But I take into account other clues and if they all seem to point in the same direction then I'll open a trade. In other words -- I use my brain as the final confirmation / validation. And the more I work with Focal Points then the easier it gets to recognize the patterns. As I mentioned a few posts back -- I kind of like Double Tops / Bottoms -- perhaps it's because they seem to be easier for me to spot and I don't need to concern myself with Confirmed / Potential / Validated Focal Points. If there is a nice looking Focal Point nearby -- as in your chart -- then I'm all in.
  • #233
  • Mar 30, 2022 3:10am Mar 30, 2022 3:10am
Quoting js497
{quote} I understand you R4M, however... if you check my CMA on the left, periodicaly it was the end of bottom, it have to be up. I taken the bottom of the range 256 and 128. Now my question is eligible, How to know which midline that the price will "respect", thats my big unknown, like you can see on picture, price has touched 32/16 midline, below the 256/126/64/32/16. Knowing that the price follows the average with up and down around of it. An idea @Parisboy? {image} you can see swing from minor cycles in cyan, and red of my future setup failed....
Your question is better answered by @parisboy -- I'm still a rookie when it comes to trading Focal Points. Hopefully he'll awake from his nap shortly...
  • #234
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:28am Mar 30, 2022 5:28am
Better
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Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 184 KB
  • #235
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:37am Mar 30, 2022 5:37am
Damn guess you guys found the holy grail, no one taking any losses so far. Time for me to hop on the train huh.
  • #236
  • Mar 30, 2022 6:01am Mar 30, 2022 6:01am
FYI -- if you notice my posts now have 'Dislikes' you should know that isn't coming from anyone here -- we're doing great. The member who carries on like a child is DrDave. His feelings were hurt in the TMS thread, and since I've Ignored him then this is the only way he knows how to respond. He's done this in the past -- not only on this thread -- actually going back years and hundreds of my posts.

For those of you with young children you may recognize the behavior...
  • #237
  • Mar 30, 2022 7:20am Mar 30, 2022 7:20am
Quoting js497
Better {image}
Nice. In this chart you traded the Double Top, right? And your blue line was used to guesstimate a Target Price?
  • #238
  • Mar 30, 2022 7:37am Mar 30, 2022 7:37am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Nice. In this chart you traded the Double Top, right? And your blue line was used to guesstimate a Target Price?
thats correct
  • #239
  • Mar 30, 2022 8:04am Mar 30, 2022 8:04am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} First of all -- I don't think of them as "signals". To me, a "signal" is a visual mark at the CURRENT timestamp where you decide whether or not to open or close a trade. In the case of Focal Points, I'm looking for "wake-up calls". That is -- the indicator has detected a Focal Point and I need to take a closer look. I don't know how to confirm or validate a Focal Point, and I'm not sure @parisboy does either. But I take into account other clues and if they all seem to point in the same direction then I'll open a trade. In other words --...
I think we have to clarify the terminology.

let'use the term "signal" for the coding, for the computer

and "candidate " for the methodology . which is true .

The methodology gives us "candidates" Action Signal to speak like Hurst. In layman term you can translate that by "pay attention. this could be the right time to open a Short or a Long Position. But it comes with the usual disclaimer "It is your money , not mine. This is in no way an investment advice etc"
  • #240
  • Mar 30, 2022 8:07am Mar 30, 2022 8:07am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Nice. In this chart you traded the Double Top, right? And your blue line was used to guesstimate a Target Price?

it is the same reasoning you have a hierarchy in the Double Tops / Bottoms. All Double Tops / Bottoms are not equal. Some have more amplitude than others
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