Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 325 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #6,481
  • Edited 7:35am Mar 29, 2022 7:14am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting OAPDave
Another Simple way When the Train leaves the Station hop on board {image} {image} {image}
Now Banked and flat in market
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  • #6,482
  • Mar 29, 2022 8:03am Mar 29, 2022 8:03am
Just a thought as I look at my Daily Murrey Chart
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  • #6,483
  • Mar 30, 2022 5:38am Mar 30, 2022 5:38am
Quoting OAPDave
Todays early Dax action {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Dave, for your reference, here's my camarilla on the Dax, calculated using the mkt open hours. 5 minute bars.
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Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,484
  • Mar 30, 2022 7:45am Mar 30, 2022 7:45am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Hi Nicy You have got the formula spot as far as I understand So Slowbrain the one I use, is just missing the H5/L5 which you have. To me his H5/L5 are actually H6/L6 Its easier for you to check yours against mine as mine show the levels and numbers based on my data Ps Do you think that using 4hr or even 1hr as any merit ? {image} {image}
Here, for your convenience, the levels are shown on the graph. I posted my formula previously and I'm only adding the daily pivot (H+L+C average).
I already dig into your indicator source code, and it uses the daily candles as indicated by your broker. They start/end on midnight. This is not optimal (to say the least).
I'll expand on the last sentence. We need to understand what an indicator is measuring and what it represents. The camarilla is representing levels calculated on the daily range, and takes into account the final closing price. Now, the closing price is the most important price of the day. It represents the ultimate price agreed by the participants. It's also a reference price for the day and is used in many computations, indicators in all prop firms. The daily range represents many things, but most of all the amount of movement of the stock/future etc. This is in turn used to price options, calculate value at risk and several other very important metrics.
MM will act upon this information increasing, reducing, adjusting their positions.
Now, camarilla divides this range into 1/6th and draws the levels. Then draws some extensions, which are calculated statistically (my educated guess), so it's very likely these levels match whatever the MM are watching too.

The point is the source of data: MM does not care of what happens in extended hours or during the night. The amount of shares traded there is so thin that it does not affect their inventory. It's very cheap for them to actually revert those trades in the morning is necessary.

So, here you have the reason for the various scenarios of camarilla. If you open too far from the official price of the day before you either go back to that price or you go away, but either way you know the levels to watch for: The previous day high/low, the pivot and the expansions, which are only relevant because they're calculated as percent increase/decrease from the agreed price of the previous day. This is all that matters to the MM: The amount of risk in % they're taking and so they're very keen to act upon those specific levels.

This also answers your other question: No intraday levels matter (i.e. hourly etc). Big hands that move the market act on daily, weekly and monthly charts. Occasionally they use 4H just to distinguish a morning from an afternoon and for general trend direction, but that's all.

I hope what I wrote makes sense. I'm writing in absolute terms, but there's no absolute in the market. However, try to read between the lines and research it. This info will hopefully keep you on the side of the MM and not fighting the trend.
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Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,485
  • Mar 31, 2022 5:13am Mar 31, 2022 5:13am
So, Dave, did you delete some of your posts?
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,486
  • Mar 31, 2022 5:44am Mar 31, 2022 5:44am
Quoting Nicy
So, Dave, did you delete some of your posts?
Yes
Thought it best to, as did not want to confuse anyone
The pre and after market seems to be the fly in the ointment
https://daxfutures.org/
https://www.eurex.com/ex-en/markets/...utures-2615490
To be fair I have made a few bob trading the Dax in the right or wrong manner with the data that I have, as I have shown a few times
So I think I will just carry on using all my tools and methods, bury my head in the sand and hopefully keep banking a few pips
  • #6,487
  • Apr 4, 2022 2:12am Apr 4, 2022 2:12am
FYI the levels today, since friday afternoon. Notable precision so far.

And, BTW: Am I here alone?
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Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,488
  • Apr 4, 2022 2:48am Apr 4, 2022 2:48am
Quoting Nicy
FYI the levels today, since friday afternoon. Notable precision so far. And, BTW: Am I here alone? {image}

Apologies, I've been AFK with other things. Also my charts have been very messy trialing a number of different options. Chart later
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,489
  • Edited 4:21am Apr 4, 2022 3:49am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting Nicy
FYI the levels today, since friday afternoon. Notable precision so far. And, BTW: Am I here alone? {image}
Hi
Thanks for your post and levels, but may I ask you a question
You like all of us I guess, are worried about getting trapped on the wrong side of the market/trend, but if we adopt the correct Camarilla Rules their are strict idea's were we look to enter and were we have to accept we need to apply our stop loss and re-evaluate
Much as we would like to have a 100% correct trading win rate, alas taking just the odd loser keeps our feet firmly on the ground
So do you agree that if we look to trade with Camarilla and the levels, we should just put our helmet on and go into battle or do we need to find another filter
  • #6,490
  • Apr 4, 2022 4:29am Apr 4, 2022 4:29am
GN, so far it's been a Camarilla morning in NQ.
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  • #6,491
  • Apr 4, 2022 4:34am Apr 4, 2022 4:34am
Quoting medici
GN, so far it's been a Camarilla morning in NQ. {image}
Cannot argue with that chart
✔✔✔
  • #6,492
  • Apr 4, 2022 5:29am Apr 4, 2022 5:29am
Dax M5 so far...a confluence with a SS is best....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,493
  • Apr 4, 2022 5:44am Apr 4, 2022 5:44am
Likewise for NQ
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,494
  • Apr 4, 2022 5:48am Apr 4, 2022 5:48am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Hi Thanks for your post and levels, but may I ask you a question You like all of us I guess, are worried about getting trapped on the wrong side of the market/trend, but if we adopt the correct Camarilla Rules their are strict idea's were we look to enter and were we have to accept we need to apply our stop loss and re-evaluate Much as we would like to have a 100% correct trading win rate, alas taking just the odd loser keeps our feet firmly on the ground So do you agree that if we look to trade with Camarilla and the levels, we should just...
You can never trust a single indicator or system. These are all tools in your toolbox. Sometimes you need different tool for the job, but in trading you don't really know which one it is until after the fact.
What you really need is screen time and to have a feel for the market and what is happening in the world (news etc). There's no substitute for that. Call it experience if you wish.
The technical part is just an "excuse" for much deeper mkt dynamics and "flows" if you wish. A Fibo/MA and any other well-followed indicators are only giving you probable targets but they're subject to lot of variation. There will always be an explanation, after the fact, of why something did or did not work. The trick is to know with a reasonable degree of confidence that something is happening or not and what that something really is.
All these are nice words, but putting them in practice takes years (or decades). The more hours you put into it, the better you become, yet very often you'll be on the wrong side and need to handle it.
Good thing about the wrong side is it is usually temporary, unless you're totally out of sync. So you have to deal with the temporary loss. There're many ways you can deal with, usually all go under the name of money management. You need to decide for yourself what to do and where your limits are. You need a plan and a strategy. Keep track on your total exposure, the max loss, where are your levels and what your actions will be. You could go for small stop losses and reentry at better prices. You could try some sort of martingaling, or said in other words: portfolio management. It works if you have the resources and know how to hedge your position shall the need apply.
Remember, MM and successful are way more sophisticated than what you can read on FF or other retail trader forums. They use any tool available, and mostly never this means a single trading instrument.
I'm attaching and updated chart for your convenience. It's an after the fact, fascinating chart. You could make a teaching career with something like that. But how to trade it, it's up to you and nobody can teach you. Really, in trading "this is the way".
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Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,495
  • Apr 4, 2022 5:57am Apr 4, 2022 5:57am
Quoting Nicy
{quote} You can never trust a single indicator or system. These are all tools in your toolbox. Sometimes you need different tool for the job, but in trading you don't really know which one it is until after the fact. What you really need is screen time and to have a feel for the market and what is happening in the world (news etc). There's no substitute for that. Call it experience if you wish. The technical part is just an "excuse" for much deeper mkt dynamics and "flows" if you wish. A Fibo/MA and any other well-followed indicators are only giving...
Thank you for your reply
  • #6,496
  • Edited 10:47am Apr 4, 2022 7:09am | Edited 10:47am
Quoting Nicy
{quote} You can never trust a single indicator or system. These are all tools in your toolbox. Sometimes you need different tool for the job, but in trading you don't really know which one it is until after the fact. What you really need is screen time and to have a feel for the market and what is happening in the world (news etc). There's no substitute for that. Call it experience if you wish. The technical part is just an "excuse" for much deeper mkt dynamics and "flows" if you wish. A Fibo/MA and any other well-followed indicators are only giving...
Some good philosophical points there

And I suppose one question one needs to answer for oneself is how systematic or discretionary one wants to be. It sounds like you are happy to be quite discretionary, while Dave is desiring something more systematic. And both have their pros and cons, no?

Your first sentence really resonates with me - "you can never trust a single system". At the same time, however you trade, your trading record could be translated into some kind of system.

To me that means being as systematic as I can, while knowing when to "break" the rules. Typically that happens when I detect the fingerprints of the market makers, who with their ability to move the market around tend to upset the rules of technical systems.
  • #6,497
  • Apr 4, 2022 9:12am Apr 4, 2022 9:12am
That was a half hour well spent I may just call it a day
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  • #6,498
  • Apr 4, 2022 9:25am Apr 4, 2022 9:25am
Quoting medici
That was a half hour well spent I may just call it a day {image}
  • #6,499
  • Apr 4, 2022 11:58am Apr 4, 2022 11:58am
Quoting medici
{quote} Some good philosophical points there And I suppose one question one needs to answer for oneself is how systematic or discretionary one wants to be. It sounds like you are happy to be quite discretionary, while Dave is desiring something more systematic. And both have their pros and cons, no? Your first sentence really resonates with me - "you can never trust a single system". At the same time, however you trade, your trading record could be translated into some kind of system. To me that means being as systematic as I can, while...
I largely agree with what you're saying. It's knowing when to break or not the rules and which rules to follow or not in any specific situation that makes a difference.
I think I'm suggesting to be discretional in gauging the market, then act based on strict policy for trade and money management.
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,500
  • Apr 5, 2022 2:41am Apr 5, 2022 2:41am
Tbh it makes no sense at all to me after spending hour up on hour creating and testing a method/system, sorting reasonable targets and stops adding rules, then from time to time ignore all the effort you have made
How can you create a money-management method based on your method/system and test results if you do not have the discipline to take a stop, or even get a little greedy
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