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Islander and Medici trade the European open

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  • Post #6,501
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  • Apr 5, 2022 6:54am Apr 5, 2022 6:54am
  •  Nicy
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 488 Posts
Quoting OAPDave
Disliked
Tbh it makes no sense at all to me after spending hour up on hour creating and testing a method/system, sorting reasonable targets and stops adding rules, then from time to time ignore all the effort you have made How can you create a money-management method based on your method/system and test results if you do not have the discipline to take a stop, or even get a little greedy
Ignored
I'll give you an example: You make an RSI based system that will short the market on overbought. Perhaps you'll make a filter that will only short the market when the price retraces below a given average that you have carefully designed (i.e. overfitted). You'll add more filters to the mix in an attempt to filter out bad trades and only get the good ones (i.e. overfitting more and more).

Now, suppose you trade this system on a day where some unexpected good news breaks in the markets. Say the FED decides to keep the interest rates low when the mkt is pricing a hike, or the news of certain war peace agreement hits the wires. Now if you trade your carefully designed system you're going to enter the trade short in the retracement and the price will take off from there resulting in your maximum loss, or worse.

Big money will design a system that will take into account many more factors, including the market sentiment, the news, the analysis of what other MM are doing and further, their own undisclosed to the market information or analysis. More often than not, they also take into account something called the "human factor". That is, the human bias is baked into the formulas and the system accounts for them. This is the only way you can be ahead of the markets.

If you know that something just happened in oil, you're going to trade it *now*. A fully automatic, but dumb system will wait until the price moves because the indicators that are reliable are slow while the fast ones are very unreliable.

Off course, there's a way to design higher frequency systems (i don't mean HTF, I mean 1-60 seconds systems) that are quite reliable and use market dynamics and microstructure. In these systems retail is still at very big disadvantage, but it's possible to prosper using low capacity algos, living off the pockets that are not tradable with higher capital. You'll need something better than an MT4 tough and a proper connection and broker to the market. But this is another story and FF is probably not the right place for it.

Ok, HTH I think I gave you enough food for thought and research.
Wealth is not built in a day.
 
 
  • Post #6,502
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  • Edited 7:51am Apr 5, 2022 7:19am | Edited 7:51am
  •  OAPDave
  • Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Member | 3,646 Posts
Quoting Nicy
Disliked
{quote} I'll give you an example: You make an RSI based system that will short the market on overbought. Perhaps you'll make a filter that will only short the market when the price retraces below a given average that you have carefully designed (i.e. overfitted). You'll add more filters to the mix in an attempt to filter out bad trades and only get the good ones (i.e. overfitting more and more). Now, suppose you trade this system on a day where some unexpected good news breaks in the markets. Say the FED decides to keep the interest rates low when...
Ignored
Thank you
My answer to that scenario is simple
My stop would be activated
I would then re- evaluate, seeing that the market is not trading in a normal (if there is such a thing as a normal market) manner
This can easily be seen if you constantly trade the same timeframe by the range of the bar/candlesticks
I now have a choice of stepping to one side and waiting for the market to settle down or adopt a different plan
I am only a very simple guy
I have no ability to create a method /system to accommodate rare ish unforeseen circumstances
ps
Researched that scenario when building my Trading Plan, in general found it better to stand aside
 
 
  • Post #6,503
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  • Apr 5, 2022 8:12am Apr 5, 2022 8:12am
  •  Nicy
  • | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 488 Posts
Quoting OAPDave
Disliked
{quote} Thank you My answer to that scenario is simple My stop would be activated I would then re- evaluate, seeing that the market is not trading in a normal (if there is such a thing as a normal market) manner This can easily be seen if you constantly trade the same timeframe by the range of the bar/candlesticks I now have a choice of stepping to one side and waiting for the market to settle down or adopt a different plan I am only a very simple guy I have no ability to create a method /system to accommodate rare ish unforeseen circumstances ps...
Ignored
Yes. You become discretionary. There's no way around that.
Wealth is not built in a day.
 
 
  • Post #6,504
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  • Apr 5, 2022 8:43am Apr 5, 2022 8:43am
  •  medici
  • Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 3,069 Posts
Good discussion Makes me think of what a former colleague, who used to run the algo shop for a major investment bank, used to say: There is no algo that is profitable all the time, and the trick is to know when to turn them on and off. And only in the millisecond timeframe can you make money without discretion. Personally, he didn't think he'd be able to make a living from trading on a retail platform.
Homeruns and capital preservation.
 
 
  • Post #6,505
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  • Apr 6, 2022 7:08am Apr 6, 2022 7:08am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Some interesting and though provoking posts

My own thoughts are that a retail trader needs 10,000+ hours of screen time before he/she can start to trade profitably.

As I said in my post on Page 300, I analyised a year of Dax's M1 charts before I started trading the Dax.

"To trade any instrument Intra-Day requires a lot of hard work and research before there is any possibility of becoming profitable – and that’s without the actual problem that come with trading off the right of the screen with your own real money."

At my level, I am only trying to follow the action, all be it on a S20 chart and pirate what I can from these unforgiving markets

Also, all levels that I post should be viewed from Tom William's "Bushy Hedged" perspective
Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
9
  • Post #6,506
  • Quote
  • Apr 6, 2022 7:40am Apr 6, 2022 7:40am
  •  Dutchy Daxy
  • Joined Jul 2012 | Status: Member | 21,616 Posts
Quoting Islander
Disliked
Some interesting and though provoking posts My own thoughts are that a retail trader needs 10,000+ hours of screen time before he/she can start to trade profitably. As I said in my post on Page 300, I analyised a year of Dax's M1 charts before I started trading the Dax. "To trade any instrument Intra-Day requires a lot of hard work and research before there is any possibility of becoming profitable – and that’s without the actual problem that come with trading off the right of the screen with your own real money." At my level,...
Ignored
"It's better to be out wishing to be in... than to be in wishing to be out!
 
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  • Post #6,507
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2022 5:02am Apr 7, 2022 5:02am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
My simple way of viewing possible targets using Fibs & prior ranges
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,508
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  • Edited 8:54am Apr 7, 2022 5:23am | Edited 8:54am
  •  OAPDave
  • Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Member | 3,646 Posts
Quoting Islander
Disliked
My simple way of viewing possible targets using Fibs & prior ranges {image}
Ignored
Very neat
Also thought your post on page 300 was a very good read
Thank you
Dave
 
 
  • Post #6,509
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2022 10:35am Apr 7, 2022 10:35am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Quoting OAPDave
Disliked
{quote} Very neat Also thought your post on page 300 was a very good read Thank you Dave
Ignored
Thank you Dave

Today so far Dax M5 chart - narrower range as expected after yesterday's big move....
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,510
  • Quote
  • Apr 7, 2022 12:15pm Apr 7, 2022 12:15pm
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
As expected after yesterdays big range, choppy sideways action for the first two hours from NYO...
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,511
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 3:20am Apr 8, 2022 3:20am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Dax M5 chart pre XO
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,512
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 4:22am Apr 8, 2022 4:22am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
When Dax trades in a narrow range - 50 / 60 pts we have to either not trade or change our methodology to one adapted to trading in a narrow range with truncated moves.

This morning, the first hour since XO is an example....
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
2
  • Post #6,513
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 4:31am Apr 8, 2022 4:31am
  •  medici
  • Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Member | 3,069 Posts
Quoting Islander
Disliked
When Dax trades in a narrow range - 50 / 60 pts we have to either not trade or change our methodology to one adapted to trading in a narrow range with truncated moves. This morning, the first hour since XO is an example.... {image}
Ignored
Reminds me of our discussion on systematic vs discretionary

NQ somewhat easier to trade this morning, with discernible but grinding move upwards. I think I'll hold and let it grind on.
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Homeruns and capital preservation.
 
1
  • Post #6,514
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 4:50am Apr 8, 2022 4:50am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Quoting medici
Disliked
{quote} Reminds me of our discussion on systematic vs discretionary NQ somewhat easier to trade this morning, with discernible but grinding move upwards. I think I'll hold and let it grind on. {image}
Ignored
Indeed it does. Its a case of no one set of trading rules works all of the time.

NQ did look easier to trade after XO, but I dont look at NQ until after lunch...
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,515
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 4:54am Apr 8, 2022 4:54am
  •  OAPDave
  • Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Member | 3,646 Posts
Another view ?
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  • Post #6,516
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 5:12am Apr 8, 2022 5:12am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Thanks Dave for your charts.

Checking my hourly charts is part of my pre trading work before every session
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,517
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:08am Apr 8, 2022 5:24am | Edited 8:08am
  •  OAPDave
  • Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Member | 3,646 Posts
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Attachment 4180712
 
 
  • Post #6,518
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 6:30am Apr 8, 2022 6:30am
  •  Islander
  • Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Member | 11,753 Posts | Online Now
Dax M1 chart KISS

Trading Levels with alerts from WRBs & Volume

Ultra low volume so far suggests only retail trader have been active this morning
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Trading Levels with WRBs & Aggressive, Volatile Volume
 
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  • Post #6,519
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 6:36am Apr 8, 2022 6:36am
  •  parisboy
  • Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Member | 9,297 Posts
Quoting OAPDave
Disliked
Another view ? {image} {image} {image} {image}
Ignored
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  • Post #6,520
  • Quote
  • Apr 8, 2022 6:41am Apr 8, 2022 6:41am
  •  Brixen
  • Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Member | 68,657 Posts | Online Now
Quoting Islander
Disliked
Dax M1 chart KISS Trading Levels with alerts from WRBs & Volume Ultra low volume so far suggests only retail trader have been active this morning {image}
Ignored
mmhh! interesting point, no real volumes, no real interest from BigHands, at least so far, Thanks Islander!

and potential ping pong on going in between 14050 and 14350 zone = mid point 14200 more or less. We'll see during the afternoon......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
 
 
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