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Trading Focal Points -- "A Leap Of Faith"...

  • #61
  • Mar 23, 2022 7:10am Mar 23, 2022 7:10am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Okay... Another simplifying assumption I'd like to propose: You should only trade in the same direction as the SMA(128). What do you think?
Intuitively I am skeptical on monocausal condition.

I think this has to be tested too.

Look at this EURUSD 1 mn Chart

CMA 256 and 128 are down. They have even merged.Now CMA 128 goes slowly Up to go through the confirmed Focal Point 163264

Price goes Up as well as CMA 16 and 32. CMA 64 extension seems to be building a new lower Focal Point 163264.

But is it the end of the bearish Swing or will it go lower ?

That is the question we need to look at other parameters
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  • #62
  • Mar 23, 2022 7:41am Mar 23, 2022 7:41am
Hello,
Apparently, the numbers 12-24-48-96-192 and 16-32-64-128-256 are connected between them...

When i use a set of CMA 192, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 24 or 32(near) and 48 or 64(near)
When i use a set of CMA 384, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 48 or 64(near) and 96 or 128(near)
When i use a set of CMA 768, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 96 or 128(near) and 192 or 256(near)

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When i use a set of CMA 256, i can find the quart of cycle same like 32(near) or 48 and 64 or 96(near)
When i use a set of CMA 512, i can find the quart of cycle same like 64(near) or 96 and 128 or 192(near)
When i use a set of CMA 1024, i can find the quart of cycle same like 128(near) or 192 and 256 or 384(near)

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To know that the half (in average) of 1 cycle is 1/2, example cross to cross or high to low or low to high. Logical
More interesting, to know that the quart (in average) of 1 cycle is : 1/6 or 2/6 of period from full cycle (depends where is situated the quart in four stages of cycle(indicated on picture)).

Of course, more you multiply more you get half cycle + or - the same like previous full cycle.
But, it has been relooked that, cycle(or period) corresponding at cycle calendar is more sensitive... example 1 year/6months/3months/1month/weekly/daily
  • #63
  • Mar 23, 2022 7:58am Mar 23, 2022 7:58am
Quoting js497
Hello, Apparently, the numbers 12-24-48-96-192 and 16-32-64-128-256 are connected between them... When i use a set of CMA 192, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 24 or 32(near) and 48 or 64(near) When i use a set of CMA 384, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 48 or 64(near) and 96 or 128(near) When i use a set of CMA 768, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 96 or 128(near) and 192 or 256(near) {image} When i use a set of CMA 256, i can find the quart of cycle same like 32(near) or 48 and 64 or...
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  • #64
  • Mar 23, 2022 8:28am Mar 23, 2022 8:28am
Quoting js497
Hello, Apparently, the numbers 12-24-48-96-192 and 16-32-64-128-256 are connected between them... When i use a set of CMA 192, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 24 or 32(near) and 48 or 64(near) When i use a set of CMA 384, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 48 or 64(near) and 96 or 128(near) When i use a set of CMA 768, i can find the quart of cycle same like half between 96 or 128(near) and 192 or 256(near) {image} When i use a set of CMA 256, i can find the quart of cycle same like 32(near) or 48 and 64 or...
about 1/4 proportion.

CMA 16 lags from 8 Time Units (Bars) in relation to Price when Price Tops
When CMA 16 Tops price is 8 Time Units (Bars) Away
CMA 32 lags from 16 Time Units in relation to price

When CMA 32 (Full period) intersects Price and CMA 16 (Half Period) in the Middle of the Swing CMA 32 is 8 Time Units from where Price previously topped.

8 = 1/4 of 32
  • #65
  • Mar 23, 2022 9:24am Mar 23, 2022 9:24am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} about 1/4 proportion. CMA 16 lags from 8 Time Units (Bars) in relation to Price when Price Tops When CMA 16 Tops price is 8 Time Units (Bars) Away CMA 32 lags from 16 Time Units in relation to price When CMA 32 (Full period) intersects Price and CMA 16 (Half Period) in the Middle of the Swing CMA 32 is 8 Time Units from where Price previously topped. 8 = 1/4 of 32
Yes, pratical example of stats i have.

I have too another thing here.
I looked in all example i have a little lag more compared to period average, example lag of -128 (for CMA 256) for an average of 120 bars from cross to cross.
So, if i reduce the lag of negative shift by 8 (so total of -120) and divided by 2 from each CMA separately, i get the same period average like (256 -128), means 240 high to high(or low to low) and 120 for cross to cross, etc.

i show the comparative result on picture.

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Same for the others CMA (128 -60, 64 -30, 32 -15), same average, less lag
For the CMA 16 -8, its unchanged
  • #66
  • Mar 23, 2022 9:45am Mar 23, 2022 9:45am
For CMAs 192/96/48/24/12

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  • #67
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:02am Mar 23, 2022 11:02am
Observe where is Price Top and when CMA 16 (red) made its Top
Count bars
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  • #68
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:04am Mar 23, 2022 11:04am
Observe when CMA 32 (BLUE) intersects with Price and CMA 16
Count Bars
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  • #69
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:06am Mar 23, 2022 11:06am
Swede's chart
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  • #70
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:09am Mar 23, 2022 11:09am
Observe when CMA 32 (blue) intersects Price and CMA 16 (red)
count bars
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  • #71
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:17am Mar 23, 2022 11:17am
The interception between CMA 32 and CMA 16 is the same like half period of CMA 32, otherwise said, 16bars.. And too, when the CMA 16 starts to inverse itself
  • #72
  • Mar 23, 2022 11:49am Mar 23, 2022 11:49am
Quoting parisboy
Observe when CMA 32 (blue) intersects Price and CMA 16 (red) count bars {image}
Not sure if this works in every case (would need to test a lot more in real time), but in the 2 examples you show, and at the time you show them (important because the MA positions move), the intersection of the CMA 32 and CMA 16 was 50% of the swing.
  • #73
  • Mar 23, 2022 12:00pm Mar 23, 2022 12:00pm
Closed Long position because I have to go
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  • #74
  • Mar 23, 2022 1:46pm Mar 23, 2022 1:46pm
Follow Up
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  • #75
  • Mar 23, 2022 2:06pm Mar 23, 2022 2:06pm
Quoting parisboy
Follow Up {image} {image}
How would you trade those Focal Points. The second Focal Point is rather flat and the guesstimated TargetPrice won't differ much from the current price. Would you even attempt to trade it or move on? And according to the Focal Point algorithm it looks like you would enter a SELL, right?
  • #76
  • Mar 23, 2022 2:42pm Mar 23, 2022 2:42pm
entry => target
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  • #77
  • Mar 23, 2022 2:50pm Mar 23, 2022 2:50pm
The reaction of this trendlines.
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  • #78
  • Mar 23, 2022 2:57pm Mar 23, 2022 2:57pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} How would you trade those Focal Points. The second Focal Point is rather flat and the guesstimated TargetPrice won't differ much from the current price. Would you even attempt to trade it or move on? And according to the Focal Point algorithm it looks like you would enter a SELL, right?

I would wait wait based on Focal Points. You are right fir the SELL. (depends from the forecasted amplitude of the Swing)
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  • #79
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:20pm Mar 23, 2022 3:20pm
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  • #80
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:29pm Mar 23, 2022 3:29pm
If I may. On the 30min

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When there's a will, there's a way.
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