Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 321 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade 21,154 replies

As complicated as necessary: Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade 861 replies

Getting a handle to open trades in the open trade tab 3 replies

EA to open trade on Next Candle open (help please) 4 replies

Medici trades the London open 435 replies

Attachments: Islander and Medici trade the European open
Exit Attachments

Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #6,401
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:12am Mar 22, 2022 11:12am
Quoting Islander
S20 2nd hour {image}
Question
Are you showing a Nas 100 chart with Dax Titles ?
  • #6,402
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:15am Mar 22, 2022 11:15am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Question Are you showing a Nas 100 chart with Dax Titles ?
I noticed the same
  • #6,403
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:21am Mar 22, 2022 11:21am
Quoting medici
{quote} I noticed the same
I think its a test to see if I am a sleep in the back of the classroom
  • #6,404
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:29am Mar 22, 2022 11:29am
......yes .....but please dont tell 'cause I dont want a visit from Miss W
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,405
  • Mar 22, 2022 11:39am Mar 22, 2022 11:39am
Quoting medici
{quote} Very nice. Simple chart setup, simple rules. Still, I can find reading 20/30s candle by candle a bit tedious. Which is why I turn to tick charts - then the work is the simpler watching of whether price crosses a line or not. More simpleminded, I would say. And what strikes me is the similarity between your chart and a tick chart setup that I'm toying with. Except yours is likely more noisy during the morning session. {image}
Interesting.

Noisy on Dax or NQ in the mornings?

We do have auto alarms to help with not needing to read candle by candle
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,406
  • Mar 22, 2022 12:13pm Mar 22, 2022 12:13pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} Does the GMT shift setting correct the problem, no?
Swede
As you can see
I have now been using the New one today that Slowbrain posted
  • #6,407
  • Mar 22, 2022 5:51pm Mar 22, 2022 5:51pm
Inserted Video
  • #6,408
  • Mar 23, 2022 2:54am Mar 23, 2022 2:54am
Quoting medici
{quote} I couldn't agree more, but what I was trying to say had more to do with the tendency to criticise others without sharing anything of one's own. Anyhow, here's my clean chart for today. Two trades and I feel done. There will likely be a ride up form R4 to be had, but enough for today. What's your clean chart of the day? PS: My first entry was actually at 13:30:47, but that didn't fit on the screen. {image}
I was giving some advice, although constructive criticism would be positive. What I'm looking at is probably too clean as I stopped drawing most indicators and only keep them in my mind. However, there are a few that are useful. My main levels are the open/high/close for previous days and the volume profile. I keep the odd average here and there just for reference. Here's my view on the dax and what I'm looking at.
The 1H chart, the 15 minutes. I trade off 3 minutes * S1 to S5 and I'm studying the Islanders averages and camarilla pivots. The last chart is the DAX using a mixture of Islander's average and a custom linear regression short term expected value.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 42 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 47 KB
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,409
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:14am Mar 23, 2022 3:14am
Hi Nicy, thank you for your post.

Some interesting ideas that are always welcome here when they are focused on Dax and NQ
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,410
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:20am Mar 23, 2022 3:20am
This chart might be useful. This is a very congested view of yesterdays levels/action on M1, again FDAX. The references are two Fibo interpretations (they almost match), and the Islander averages. There's a couple of levels which are "obvious after the fact" but which I missed to draw before the fact. Note, all levels are drawn hours and sometimes days before. Note how the top of the last days acts are temporary support today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 50 KB
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,411
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:22am Mar 23, 2022 3:22am
Dax M60 chart

The opening gap from February 28 is almost closed - is that close enough?

TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar23 dax m60 xo.png Size: 111 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,412
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:30am Mar 23, 2022 3:30am
Ok, last chart for this morning. Same as my previous chart, but I'm showing the anchors of the Fibo retracements, i.e. the last huge rally started on March 18th. The fibo was drawn on that day (you can see the anchors). It's been in play until yestrday and is still partially in play todayt as support. As my friend @Brixen says market is never obvious, but history repeats itself. If we decide to come down from 500, these levels will be in play again, probably. So using them in conjunction with, say, Islander's averages gives some edge, or at least will give indications on where to act. I think a mixture of Brixen's modus operandi and Islander's/Medici's levels and being on the right side of the market could be a very powerful way of trading. I've been working on this for the last few months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 57 KB
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,413
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:33am Mar 23, 2022 3:33am
NQ M60 chart

Price stalled at the Feb 15th highs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar23 NQ m60 0830.png Size: 135 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,414
  • Mar 23, 2022 3:46am Mar 23, 2022 3:46am
Dax M5 chart

A nice Sell around the Frankfurt Open and the Camarilla H3 level

Since then too many wicks & tails suggesting more sideways action

TWT
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar23 dax m5 0842.png Size: 82 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,415
  • Edited 4:39am Mar 23, 2022 4:10am | Edited 4:39am
Quoting Nicy
{quote} I was giving some advice, although constructive criticism would be positive. What I'm looking at is probably too clean as I stopped drawing most indicators and only keep them in my mind. However, there are a few that are useful. My main levels are the open/high/close for previous days and the volume profile. I keep the odd average here and there just for reference. Here's my view on the dax and what I'm looking at. The 1H chart, the 15 minutes. I trade off 3 minutes * S1 to S5 and I'm studying the Islanders averages and camarilla pivots....
Thank you for sharing Very interesting. I like an analytical approach to things. Having said that, personally I find volume profiles too nebulous for my taste. Yes, I've read the books and considered the merits, but in the end it's not for me.

Regression I've worked with a lot. A few years ago I developed a multi-scale market model based on that. I enjoyed that, and found it beautiful, but in the end it wasn't as helpful for trading as it was aesthetically pleasing.

The reason for that, I believe, is the prediction hypothesis. The markets don't follow my thinking, but it's own, so to say. Like somebody said, "Your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs are your enemies."

When I got started trading it was on a 5m chart, and entries were based on support and resistance. And S/R is still at thea heart of successful trading - to enter with a reasonable stop and hope to make a decent multiple of the stop size in profit requires that you have identified an S/R level.

Generally, that can happen in three ways: mean reversion, momentum, and breakout. To make those not dependent on hypothesis but a verifiable event one needs to find a rule. To me the breaking or holding of an MA seems the only viable option. One may of course use trendlines, but then one is introducing rather complex modelling hypotheses.

So after a long time in this game I'me arriving at the dead simple - a single MA set in an appropriate context, and the entry/exit based of cross of that. Below a few charts on that from the last couple of days, where one is based on Islander's charts, and one on a range bar model of mine. Hard to beat, methinks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-03-23 at 07.35.34.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-03-23 at 07.37.47.png Size: 108 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-03-23 at 08.10.18.png Size: 162 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-03-23 at 08.10.52.png Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot 2022-03-23 at 08.12.18.png Size: 142 KB
  • #6,416
  • Edited 5:21am Mar 23, 2022 4:45am | Edited 5:21am
Update
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M5c.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30M5a.png Size: 75 KB
  • #6,417
  • Mar 23, 2022 5:04am Mar 23, 2022 5:04am
Dax likes the 50% retrace, especially if its at a confluence with other levels - here a MM line and a BH hit on the envelope...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar23 dax m5 1002.png Size: 83 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,418
  • Mar 23, 2022 5:10am Mar 23, 2022 5:10am
In futures levels are very important. I use the averages only as second order confirmation and as reference of general trend. Here's an example trade from my morning. I tried a reversal/breakout on the touch of the green MA, but quickly discovered that there was no follow up so I closed. In fact the main trend was to the down side and it accelerated quickly after.
A disturbance level around the low of the open gap (ref: Islanders post), then the 76.40 fibo as identified by my previous post and tinally the confluence of the 23.6 + 61.8 from the big fino on march 18th and the first big retracement from that.
The target was hit around 410 which was also a support zone from the last days.
In general I use market profile only because it shows the POC and occasionally other major levels. The market profile theory is somewhat OK when trading the ES, however my interpretation is way different: The way I think about it is those levels are clusters of executed orders. Their violation may trigger stop orders which the MM may or may not want to trigger. This means that either the POC will be respected, reflecting the price or it will be ignored, triggering further movement on the other side.
Below is the explanatory chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 26 KB
Wealth is not built in a day.
  • #6,419
  • Mar 23, 2022 5:11am Mar 23, 2022 5:11am
@ Medici quote: "So after a long time in this game I'me arriving at the dead simple - a single MA set in an appropriate context, and the entry/exit based of cross of that. Below a few charts on that from the last couple of days, where one is based on Islander's charts, and one on a range bar model of mine. Hard to beat, methinks."

Interesting how, after a couple of years of going our own ways we have come to similar conclusions about less being more on our charts.

We call it KISS and I'm not quite there yet as I do find the ATR & Volume helpful, even if only for the auto alerts I have.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,420
  • Mar 23, 2022 5:21am Mar 23, 2022 5:21am
Dax S20 chart

After the high around FO, the first hour after XO was in a small range of 53 pts - not easy to trade profitably IMO

The second hour was better.

My morning's trading is now finished and after lunch I switch to trading Nas
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar23 dax s20 1017.png Size: 78 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
2 traders viewing now