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  • #121
  • Mar 18, 2022 7:27pm Mar 18, 2022 7:27pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} It is just to couunt the number of different Focal Points 7 x 1632 2 x 163264 2 X 163264128
Cool -- thanks...
  • #122
  • Mar 18, 2022 7:30pm Mar 18, 2022 7:30pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Okay -- I see a bunch of colorful lines. I'm not familiar with the "Octave thing". Could you highlight what jumps out at you.

just how "touches on the Horizontal Lines on this weekly - but it is another subject than Centered Moving Averages and Focal Point
  • #123
  • Mar 18, 2022 8:20pm Mar 18, 2022 8:20pm
Quoting robots4me
Another post worth repeating -- related to the pendulum pattern... Core body temperature as a function of time... {image} All systems hover around some midline / equilibrium / fair market value, drifting above and below some equilibrium value. That includes systems like core body temperature, currency exchange, and many others. All systems have some kind of inherent feedback control that prevent them from imploding to zero or exploding to infinity. The feedback mechanisms that keep currency exchange rates hovering around some fair...

P. N. (Pete) Haurlan was the first to use exponential smoothing for tracking stock prices. Haurlan was an actual rocket scientist who worked for JPL in the early 1960s, and thus he had access to a computer. He did not call them “exponential moving averages (EMAs)”, or the mathematically fashionable “exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMAs)”. Instead he called them “Trend Values”, and referred to them by their smoothing constants. Thus, what today is commonly called a 19-day EMA, he called a “10% Trend”.

Haurlan had employed EMAs in designing the tracking systems for rockets, which might for example need to intercept a moving object like a satellite, a planet, etc. If the path to the target was off, then some sort of input would need to be applied to the steering mechanism, but they did not want to overdo or underdo that input and either become unstable or fail to turn. Thus, the right sort of smoothing of data inputs was helpful. Haurlan called this “Proportional Control”, meaning that the steering mechanism would not try to adjust out all of the tracking error all at once.

EMAs were easier to code into early analog circuitry than other types of filters because they only need two pieces of variable data: the current input value (e.g. price, position, angle, etc.), and the prior EMA value. The smoothing constant would be hard-wired into the circuitry, so the “memory” would only have to keep track of those two variables. A simple moving average, on the other hand, requires keeping track of all values within the lookback period. So a 50-SMA would mean keeping track of 50 data points, then averaging them. It ties up a lot more processing power
  • #124
  • Mar 18, 2022 9:52pm Mar 18, 2022 9:52pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} P. N. (Pete) Haurlan was the first to use exponential smoothing for tracking stock prices. Haurlan was an actual rocket scientist who worked for JPL in the early 1960s, and thus he had access to a computer. He did not call them “exponential moving averages (EMAs)”, or the mathematically fashionable “exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMAs)”. Instead he called them “Trend Values”, and referred to them by their smoothing constants. Thus, what today is commonly called a 19-day EMA, he called a “10% Trend”. Haurlan had employed EMAs in...
Very interesting history...


Quoting parisboy
If the path to the target was off, then some sort of input would need to be applied to the steering mechanism, but they did not want to overdo or underdo that input and either become unstable or fail to turn.
A guidance SYSTEM. The steering mecahnism (feedback) is used to adjust location (metric) when the rocket deviated from desired path (equilibrium / fair market value).

Conceptually, all systems are composed of the same types of elements -- inlcuding FX...
  • #125
  • Mar 18, 2022 11:04pm Mar 18, 2022 11:04pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} @parisboy -- I have a few questions. I'm really interested in getting this right, so please bear with me. As you know, I am still a rookie... The numbers may be off a bit, but have I correctly reproduced your chart and MA lines? {image} Here is my interpretation of your discretionary algorithm: 1. Look for the TWO most recent focal points -- in this case, around 1.5139. QUES: Where does 163264 come from? 2. Potential Targets: #1: FocalPoint minus the difference between HighestPoint and FocalPoint #2: Look left for an older FocalPoint #3:...
This is a work in-progress -- more to come, I hope. It is a continuation of @parisboy's post #102 on FocalPoints. This is new to me and I find it very interesting -- it's also extremely simple and lends itself well to discretionary swing trading. Perhaps it will dovetail into PlanetX -- we'll see. We'll never know unless we try, right?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-GBPUSD.png Size: 66 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-EURAUD.png Size: 46 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 R4M-FocalPoints-v0.001.ex4   51 KB | 191 downloads


The above images are EURAUD/H1 and GBPUSD/H1 charts that display some Focal Points. The new indicator -- R4M-FocalPoints -- which I am still working on, is nothing special. It saves you the time of manually creating 5 moving averages. I will be adding more with the intention of flushing-out the Focal Point algorithm.

One thing to note at this point -- there are different "qualities" or "strengths" of Focal Points. I can identify the following properties of a Focal Point:
1. The number of SMAs lines that participate in the Focal Point
2. The proximity of the participating lines to the center of the Focal Point
3. The slope of the Focal Point

My expectation is the "stronger" the Focal Point then the more accurate it will be.
  • #126
  • Mar 19, 2022 12:18am Mar 19, 2022 12:18am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} This is a work in-progress -- more to come, I hope. It is a continuation of @parisboy's post #102 on FocalPoints. This is new to me and I find it very interesting -- it's also extremely simple and lends itself well to discretionary swing trading. Perhaps it will dovetail into PlanetX -- we'll see. We'll never know unless we try, right? {image}{image} {file} The above images are EURAUD/H1 and GBPUSD/H1 charts that display some Focal Points. The new indicator -- R4M-FocalPoints -- which I am still working on, is nothing special. It saves you...
Still a work in progress -- an update to the FocalPoints indicator. I've added dots along each SMA. A dot will appear when an SMA falls within the High and Low of a particular bar. Focal Points occur when SMA lines intersect. My algorithm will be using dot "density" to define a Focal Point. The higher the density of dots then the stronger the Focal Point.

Just to be clear -- a Focal Point is NOT a trading signal. Rather it is a historical "meeting point" of up to 5 SMAs. Using these historical "meeting points" one can then make a very simple calculation. If you know how to add / subtract then you would qualify. The calculation is then used as a Target price. You can refer to @parisboy's post #102 for further details.

For those familiar with @George's thread about TARGETS, TARGETS, TARGETS -- there is a common theme here in that Focal Points use historical data to predict a target price in the future.


There's still more to come...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-GBPUSD-02.png Size: 76 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 R4M-FocalPoints-v0.001.ex4   39 KB | 180 downloads
  • #127
  • Mar 19, 2022 2:36am Mar 19, 2022 2:36am
Quoting Wavegarrick
Hi Bishopdotun, You are a very good and humble trader. I have a great deal of respect for you and have learned from you in your previous thread. I ask why you are putting up with all of this?. Serious culling is needed here. I trust you will do the right thing, All the best my friend, Cheers.
How about a little patience. When was the last time you learned something new? Or, perhaps you already know everything and aren't interested.

New ideas don't automagically fall out of the sky onto your lap. Someone has to take a risk to see where they might lead. Timid souls are afraid to step out of the Garden of Eden for fear of what lies beyond the fence. There's a reason our brains have evolved two hemispheres -- the left for managing what we already know and the right for exploring. The optimal place where we are most fulfilled is somewhere inbetween. Nature (and often life) can be brutal. Survival (and learning) requires a willingness to check out what's on the other side of the fence from time-to-time.
  • #128
  • Mar 19, 2022 2:38am Mar 19, 2022 2:38am
Quoting Wavegarrick
Hi Bishopdotun, You are a very good and humble trader. I have a great deal of respect for you and have learned from you in your previous thread. I ask why you are putting up with all of this?. Serious culling is needed here. I trust you will do the right thing, All the best my friend, Cheers.
Hi Wavegarrick,
Thank you for your nice words and for bringing this issue up. I perfectly understand your concern. When I composed the first post, the intention was to keep the thread focused on only PlanetX. But I also know that PlanetX has an inherent weakness. I therefore left room for oscillators which could help overcome that weakness. Of course MM and other potential edges are welcome. I also gave room for respected contributors to introduce interesting stuff. Parisboy, R4m, BestTraderEv, Swingman etc are people I value their work and later decided to allow those input.

The current discussion started from CMA and has now evolved into focal points. They are trying to arrive at an algorithm for computing safe target price/zones for PlanetX entries. That's what I assume is the direction of the conversation between Parisboy, R4m and BestTraderEV. Sometimes allowing flexibility in this type of engagement can lead to interesting discoveries. Some of the fantastic tools I use privately with R4m today are products of exploration.

I will keep my eye on the conversation so it stays in the right direction. Thank you once again.
Ciao.
  • #129
  • Mar 19, 2022 2:42am Mar 19, 2022 2:42am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} Hi Wavegarrick, Thank you for your nice words and for bringing this issue up. I perfectly understand your concern. When I composed the first post, the intention was to keep the thread focused on only PlanetX. But I also know that PlanetX has an inherent weakness. I therefore left room for oscillators which could help overcome that weakness. Of course MM and other potential edges are welcome. I also gave room for respected contributors to introduce interesting stuff. Parisboy, R4m, BestTraderEv, Swingman etc are people I value their work...
Thanks for understanding -- much appreciated...
  • #130
  • Mar 19, 2022 2:55am Mar 19, 2022 2:55am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Still a work in progress -- an update to the FocalPoints indicator. I've added dots along each SMA. A dot will appear when an SMA falls within the High and Low of a particular bar. Focal Points occur when SMA lines intersect. My algorithm will be using dot "density" to define a Focal Point. The higher the density of dots then the stronger the Focal Point. Just to be clear -- a Focal Point is NOT a trading signal. Rather it is a historical "meeting point" of up to 5 SMAs. Using these historical "meeting points" one can then make a very simple...
Next version -- but still a work in progress. The yellow squares are Focal Points that are algorithmically detected. I've also added a setting "FocalPoint strength" who's values can range from [2,5]. This controls the "strength" of the detected Focal Points. The values [2,5] represent the number of SMA lines that intersect at a particular bar.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-EURAUD-02.png Size: 79 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 R4M-FocalPoints-v0.001.ex4   43 KB | 192 downloads
  • #131
  • Mar 19, 2022 3:37am Mar 19, 2022 3:37am
Some points on PlanetX

- It's very good with trending pairs
- Great under trending conditions or extended range (range with a wide amplitude)

EURAUD is my favourite for now.
  • #132
  • Mar 19, 2022 4:12am Mar 19, 2022 4:12am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Next version -- but still a work in progress. The yellow squares are Focal Points that are algorithmically detected. I've also added a setting "FocalPoint strength" who's values can range from [2,5]. This controls the "strength" of the detected Focal Points. The values [2,5] represent the number of SMA lines that intersect at a particular bar. {image} {file}
Another example of a Focal Point -- this one is perfect. Pairing this bearish Focal Point with its more recent bullish partner and performing the simple calculation results in a very accurate target price. Actually, you can compute multiple target prices, but my nature would be to bank the Pips sooner and not try milking it further. My time and resources are better spent looking for the next setup.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-NZDCAD.png Size: 63 KB


@parisboy -- where have you been hiding this all these years?
  • #133
  • Mar 19, 2022 4:52am Mar 19, 2022 4:52am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Another example of a Focal Point -- this one is perfect. Pairing this bearish Focal Point with its more recent bullish partner and performing the simple calculation results in a very accurate target price. Actually, you can compute multiple target prices, but my nature would be to bank the Pips sooner and not try milking it further. My time and resources are better spent looking for the next setup. {image} @parisboy -- where have you been hiding this all these years?
Check this out...

@BestTraderEv is a staunch advocate of Support / Resistance. I don't have a good S/R indicator but I do have a decent Supply / Demand one. I realize that technically they are different but I've forgotten how and right now I'm too lazy to look it up. In any event, they serve a similar purpose.

In the image below you can see that the supply / demand zones would be consistent with @parisboy's Focal Point algorithm. I don't think the supply / demand zones are necessary to trade Focal Points -- but I did think it was interesting the two were consistent with one another.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-NZDCAD-Supply-Demand.png Size: 69 KB
  • #134
  • Mar 19, 2022 5:08am Mar 19, 2022 5:08am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Check this out... @BestTraderEv is a staunch advocate of Support / Resistance. I don't have a good S/R indicator but I do have a decent Supply / Demand one. I realize that technically they are different but I've forgotten how and right now I'm too lazy to look it up. In any event, they serve a similar purpose. In the image below you can see that the supply / demand zones would be consistent with @parisboy's Focal Point algorithm. I don't think the supply / demand zones are necessary to trade Focal Points -- but I did think it was interesting...
@bishopdotun pointed out to me that if the Focal Point strength is reduced to '2' then the Focal Point markings might be used to alert you to "swing zones". Below is an image to show what he means.

I've also updated the indicator and added a setting to, optionally, hide the SMA lines.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FP-SwingZones.png Size: 42 KB

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 R4M-FocalPoints-v0.001.ex4   47 KB | 291 downloads
  • #135
  • Mar 19, 2022 5:11am Mar 19, 2022 5:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 186 KB
  • #136
  • Mar 19, 2022 5:19am Mar 19, 2022 5:19am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 88 KB
  • #137
  • Mar 19, 2022 5:24am Mar 19, 2022 5:24am
Quoting parisboy
{image}
Nice -- that's the SMA(128) line...

It's almost like that is really all we need for the Focal Point algorithm. Is that the point?
  • #138
  • Edited 6:17am Mar 19, 2022 5:36am | Edited 6:17am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Nice -- that's the SMA(128) line... It's almost like that is really all we need for the Focal Point algorithm. Is that the point?
Robots4me for the algorithm I think so

but for the use for trading there are refinements

I will develop that point if bishopdotun and you are ok
and also you need to understand what means these CMA"s they are not just excellent trend lines or superb sinewaves

PS

I need to go I will be back in one hour

Thank you for your good and quick work (as always)
  • #139
  • Mar 19, 2022 6:39am Mar 19, 2022 6:39am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} The text was small and kind of obscured -- could you tell me the prices.
Average price of two = 1.148259

BTW, what are you studying charts on? A smartphone?
If you use at least a 22 inch monitor, you will see...
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
  • #140
  • Mar 19, 2022 6:49am Mar 19, 2022 6:49am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} Very interesting history... {quote} A guidance SYSTEM. The steering mecahnism (feedback) is used to adjust location (metric) when the rocket deviated from desired path (equilibrium / fair market value). Conceptually, all systems are composed of the same types of elements -- inlcuding FX...
There is a significant difference, though. In rocket science we know where the target actually is, and we can calculate the path to it.
We do not know those in trading charts, because we do not know where the target will be in the future.
.ex4/.ex5 files can't be fixed or modified / I'm not a coder!
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