Omkar's Trading Journal

I am still thinking about the expected payoff of cycle 1. It was 1.21.

1.21 USD for a position size of 30 and 50 USD? I cant figure out what to do about it.

In the first cycle, what I did was, take a position and cut it immedicately after its not favourable for my trade direction anymore. But it also meant I had very very strict stop losses in most cases. Like 3 4 pips. Many of the trades I cut short could have been breakeven trades or maybe a small profit. How small? definitely more than 1.21 which is like 1 pip literally. But I also had to let go of some of the winners because I was afraid they will come back and go into loss.

That is what happened when my position size was about 3-5 % of my capital for each trade. What if I take smaller positions? If I can maintain the same expected payoff for each trade, it should be enough. But draw down will decrease for sure. Will try this from today. Smaller positions, bigger SL and bigger TP.

Good day yesterday.

I trade 6 pairs only. AU, EG,EJ, EU, GU, UJ. Sometimes GJ when the volatility is low. Otherwise GJ is too fast for me and things can get out of hands very fast.

Now, in all these pairs, there are 4-5 movements of 20 pips everyday, on most of the days. Generally, EU AU and GU have similar movements so lets say out of total 12 to 15 moves of 200 pips, 6-7 will be mutually exclusive. Similar case with EJ GJ UJ. so about 3 4 such movements. So 10 in total. Movements mean opportunities.

I think, if I can catch even 3 or 4 of them, life is set. Will have to keep an eye for these moves noe, because what happens right now is I am in the opposite direction of these big moves more often than not.

Another good day yesterday. Completed the second cycle.

So the second cycle is completed. Had started with a balance of ~1003 USD and had a target of 100 net profit.

I cannot help but wonder if these 2 days are just a statistical aberration because profit factor on the first day was 13 and on the second day it was 40. Overall profit factor was around 18. These numbers are too good (For me at least), but what will matter eventually is whether it will be possible to repeat such numbers on a consistent basis and for larger positions.

Expected payoff increased to almost 4, which is good but I would still prefer larger profits. Largest profit trade was just 8.03 which is 8 pips. If I look at the charts today, I can see so many rapid moves of 20+ pips everyday in every pair I trade. Moves which are really obvious to the eyes. If I am targeting 10% net return in lets say 5 days with a position size of 1% of my capital, it means I have to get 20 pips a day. So if I can get 2 such moves per day, I can bear 4-5 small losses of lets say 4-5 pips.

But this is all theory. There is a reason why I am not able to do it. Maybe lack of patience, maybe just because I am not comfortable doing it. Waiting for an hour on a 1 min and 5 min chart makes me too uncomfortable.

Anyway, I will start 3rd cycle from Monday, 14th March. Have withdrawn the profit from 2nd cycle.

Same objectives, 1000 USD account, target 1100. Position size 0.1 lot (10 USD). This time, I will try to get at least 1 move of 20+ pips.

I think expected payoff (i.e. net profit/total number of trades) is the best measure of a trading performance.

Ideal target for that would be your position size. If I am trading 0.1 lot per trade, expected payoff of 10 USD would be awesome IMO. It shows you have a healthy RR ratio, apart from being green.

Just booked a 100 USD loss. Wow! yesterday was perfect, was at 50 USD profit when I bought GU at 1.30625. It went straight 30 pips down before I could react, no SL in place.Did not exit. tried to average up, it went further down. Stayed up all night and had almost reached breakeven but it went down again very sharply, again couldn't react. Was super tired already, had to exit. Need to sleep.

This has happened before. Only this time, I am not gonna give up or revenge trade. Will try to reach BE i.e. 1000 USD balance from current 960. Then will start again tomorrow. Third cycle will be completed even if it takes 10 more days.

Overconfidence is a bitch.

Break even was the target yesterday. Started from 961, eventually finished at 1023. So far so good. Will build up from here.

Maximal drawdown reached 10% in these 2 days, which is not a good sign. Expected payoff dropped as expected. Nothing to say further, just 2 bad days. Lets see how today goes.

Now I have understood what they are talking about when they say trading is not linear.

Tough day yesterday again, had good profit but at the end, a few bad trades brought me back to breakeven. Net profit 4 USD only. I am happy that I survived. Will start from 1027 today.

Could not share the report here, my dog chewed the laptop charger. Crazy day overall.

Trading Result: 16 March

The graph from MT4 report is completely wrong. I don't know why. Had started with 1023 and finished with a net profit 4.72 and finished around 1028. Report shows final balance as 1125 which is the balance at day end today i.e. 17th March. Anyway, 16th was a tough day.

Trading Result: 17 March

A good day today. Net profit 97.8 USD, profit factor 13.1, expected payoff 5.43. Best day of third cycle.


Started around 1028, finished at 1125. Third cycle completed. Done for the day.

So, completed the third cycle today. Had started on 14th March with a balance of 1000, finished today with net profit 125, closing balance 1125. Will withdraw 125 today to reset at 1000 USD.

If I compare my performance in this cycle with the first two, it was bad. and volatile. and risky. I just survived. but this might not work in long term. Plus, I don't want to lose sleep over losing positions and bad trades. Have to find a more stable way of doing things.

Profit factor was 1.58, expected payoff was 1.67. Win-Loss ratio was 82%, almost 75% of the trades were in the short direction.

Here is the summary of all 3 cycles.


I don't really know what to say about all this but the gut feeling is that I need to change the way I handle my losing positions. If I am not able to cut those at a certain threshold, what can I do? Maybe I will analyse the trades from "what if" POV for all scenarios. Meaning, what would have happened if I had cut a losing position at a hard SL, what if I had continued a winning position etc and then, maybe, I might find a suitable approach that properly takes care of my panic points.

Anyway, will work on this tomorrow i.e. Friday. No trading tomorrow. Will start 4th cycle from Monday 21st.

So, tomorrow is another day.

Till now, I have traded major and sometimes minor currency pairs with 0.5, 0.3 and 0.1 lot size. This week, in 4th cycle, I will trade gold only with 0.1 lot size. I have traded gold before and for me, its extremely volatile when compared to major pairs. This means both profits and losses will come much faster and with additional spread. So, win ratio has to be as high as possible.

Lets see.