Omkar's Trading Journal

Its a beautiful morning here and I am all set to go.
Couldn't find any scalping setup for the last 1 hour but that is not unusual. Markets really start moving after 11 am here, which is around London open and volume starts to come in.

If anyone reading this knows a good enough thread on trading based on candle counting, consecutive candles etc, please point me to that direction.

13th Dec.

Trade#1 3.6 pips

13th Dec.

Trade#2 &#3: 4.3 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

13th Dec.

Trade#4: 4.4 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Note to self:

Check if there is any effect on reversal if price increment is not distributed uniformly. Compare with signal performance (specially in signals that fail)

Has anyone tried entering the opposite trade instead of booking a loss? for example, u r long and price is falling. So enter a sell at your desired SL instead of exiting the original buy trade?

Trade#5: -3.4+2.6+17+5.5 (6.4 gross, 4.0 net)

So this is the trade that needs to be avoided. Long entry, didnt work, did not leave it at SL, 3 additional orders used to average out.

No matter how determined I am, I simply cannot leave the trade. WTF!! I dont know what to do about this. Yes, first position got out of hand very quickly, before I could react or exit. exiting would have cost me almost entire profit of the day. But things got worse and I had another position open in UI. Max total drawdown was about 44 USD, almost 2.5 times profit from earlier trades.

Maybe got lucky, maybe this can be a valid strategy. But I should know which is which. Otherwise the whole exercise is fruitless.

Trade#6: 1.7+2.7-4.2 (0.2 gross, -0.16 net)

Another such trade where things didn't go right and I did not take any action, hoping that price will come back. Had to take 2 additional entries to average, still it was a net loss.

Done for the day today.

Happy but not happy. Target of daily 2% completed but doesn't count, because of lack or risk management and self-control. Will analyse all trades tonight. Also, will seriously think about not letting the trades go and what can be done about it.

Another beautiful morning!!

Today,I am going to trade across pairs. I reviewed yesterday's trades and I still dont know what I will do when trend reverses abruptly after my entry. I know I should exit or have a SL but if I have to force myself so much to do that,maybe its not for me.

Maybe, just maybe, a better thing would be to enter strictly as per rules than to exit. And to do so profitably, my strategy must have a significant positive expectancy.

But to achieve positive expectancy, I will have to take all the entries as per my system because a good entry not taken is an opportunity loss. So number of entries will go up today.

Lets see how it goes.

Next post after 12 hours, won't open FF or anything else today untll trading is over.

So this is a new low, even for me. For l

Its been 4 months since I decided to change my life and all. but nothing has happened. Now i dont even want to ramble on about whys and hows of it.

Have decided to give myself one more chance. Only this time, I will monitor and share my results of March'22 and maybe then, will consider myself worthy of sharing my thoughts here.

So, started trading with bigger positions from today. Intend to be as disciplined as possible with moderate expectations. Lets see how it goes.

Initial Balance: 1063.99 (Real Account)

So almost 1000 USD.
Will trade 0.5 lots, so 5% of total capital for each trade. Loss should not be bigger than 40 USD. No daily target as such.

Lets see how far I can go this time.

Today's results:

03 March 2022

Opening Balance: 1063.99 USD
Closing Balance: 1100.53 USD

Net Profit: 36.54 USD (3.43%)

Not a good day yesterday. Struggled a lot, broke a few rules (Never again, I know!!), finally could achieve break even. First 2 trades were losses, recovered upto BE, 1 major loss, almost recovered from that and then I simply lost my patience! Tried to average down losses, took a few trades just out of desperation. Luck wasn't on my side I would say but it wasn't very very bad either.

Today's results:

04 March 2022

Opening Balance: 1100.53 USD
Closing Balance: 1102.74 USD

Net Profit: 2.21 USD

Okayish day yesterday.

Apart from that big loss. traded 0.3 lots instead of 0.5

Tough day today. Had already crosses my daily target in first few trades before a series of losses struck and had to aim for a break even. Withdrew 63.99 USD so now I can track my progress as an increase in account over 1000 USD exactly.

08 March 2022

Net Profit: 4.88 USD

Account closing balance today: 1134.56 (yestday closing balance) -63.99 (withdrawal) + 4.88 (Net profit today) =1075.45

So this is an increase of 75.45 (7.5%) over 4 days' trading. Not bad, lets see.

09 March 2022

Net profit: 24.95
Account balance: 1100.40

Completed first step today i.e.100 USD on a 1000 USD account. Took 5 days to do this. Had profits of 36, 2, 34, 4 and 24 USD on each of these days. Max drawdown was 5.55% on second day.

This feels good. Will be withdrawing 100 USD now to reset the account at 1000 USD.

Will go again from tomorrow. Same objectives. 100 USD profit, less than 5% drawdown. Repeat this 5 times, then will think about increasing position size and/or account size.

I have decided that I will complete 5 cycles of going from 1000 to 1100 first. If I can complete next 4 such cycles within a month,that will mean 40% return in a month, something I would love to do the rest of my life. Of course, I will have to increase my position and account size but thats for later. First, complete 5 cycles and analyse the drawdowns.

1st cycle was completed today and I was thinking of starting the second from tomorrow. But its just 7pm here in India and I have to watch PSG vs Real Madrid tomorrow at 1:30am. 6.5 hours to go, so will trade in the meantime.

So here we go.

Current account balance is 1100.40 and have withdrawn 100.40 USD so it will be 1000 soon. So, will keep track considering 1000.

One important thing I noticed during the first cycle was I was hesitating taking entries even in setups I thought were pretty perfect in my view. Will try to cut this down in second cycle.

Had broken a few rules on 2nd day of first cycle. Like averaging, not cutting losses etc. Will watch it this time.

What else?

Maybe I should not think in days. Like I did this on day one and did that on day 2. That puts some limits on thinking and working. Number of trades would be a better parameter.

Will pull out a report of entire first cycle and analyse it in the next post.

Here we go.

Analysis of first cycle (3rd-9th March'22)

Gross Profit: 413.05
Gross Loss: 312.65
Total net profit: 100.40
Total trades: 83

Profit factor:1.32. Should of course increase. Maybe >1.75?
Expected payoff: 1.21. Wow! This is total net profit divided by number of trades. Its too less. I dont even know how far it can be stretched. Bigger winners and smaller losers is the key but thats common knowledge. Will think about this.

Maximal drawdown: 64.5 (5.55%). This should not be bigger than 10% I guess, if every position is of 5% of my capital. But I remember being very tense when I was down my that much. definitely hampers my thinking and clarity. This basically is the length of losing streak. So maybe, I should cut down position size after a loss or something like that. lets see.

Out of 83 trades, 62 were short. That is almost 75%. I know I have always been short biased but clearly I am paying for it if we consider losses because of short bias (i.e. shorts that went into losses) and hesitancy while taking (or not taking) long entries. Need to work on this.