The Swamp

i also think that CHF intervention will help EUR on short term

- not taking position yet that SNB can intervene probably after FED/ECB meetings
it reached below parity

but probably will be a great shorting opp

Small shorts with a trailing stop. when the trailing stop is positive. I place another small short. If it runs I have a lot running with the trend. If it reverses the last trade not positive is the only risk. You can place as many as you want. The only risk is the last trade.

This is crazy market...just woke up and shorted a few .. sideline on shorting .....day range low well passed at 1.0835..

Eur trend stops...

This is for a good trend. A wtf move like the drop earlier after market opened Sunday, is best. Or a fall to the next level. I will get stopped out hundreds of times. But by waiting to only have a minimal of the smaller negative trades within a strong trend. All my s/o are 5+ pips. Those add up in hundreds of trades. While my risk is the open trades sold later. Most often a few are not stopped out and trailed. for many more pips. Wash rinse repeat. You just have to not add large trades too close on those pullbacks. Trades need to be small and well spaced. In the trend direction only. You cant get cocky and overleverage. Eventually when the trend resumes. You can have many trades in the right direction. You dont trade just to trade. You have to be patient. Your a hunter, let the trade come to you. Here is about 85+ pips worth. I could of close them all for double that. But timing the market perfectly is hard to do. I'm trying to catch a wave with a few hundred trades positive in the right direction. Here is my last 11 s/o..

I think that too. Past is one possible indicator for the future, but things change and so do reactions of relevant market participants or market influencers. The V-Spike of the stock market in 2020 is an good example. Many analysts expected a similar market reaction, as is it was seen in 2008 ff. Due to the massive government programmes it was completely different and stock prices soared to new all time highs in just a few months.

if current low 1.0806 can hold,, day range high 1.0928... if the low fails to hold .. week range low 1.0771
wait to see what US traders bring to market

bulls took over M5

nice 1H let's see wehere it takes us

950 ?

keep this in mind... COT reports show hedge funds and institutions positioning last several weeks...

Meeting started now


KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST AMEND CONSTITUTION AND REJECT CLAIMS TO ENTER ANY BLOC UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES IF THESE CONDITIONS ARE MET, THEN RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WILL ‘STOP IN A MOMENT’ - SPOKESMAN

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremli...ts-2022-03-07/

Could you please post EURCHF data point please

You can expect stocks to do that again. The Forex market is not the stock market. Lots of cheap money pushed stocks up. Forex and stocks dont always remain trends, they decouple. Of course programs are different. The Fed was printing on the 2008 fall. And the market continued to fall. Until the market caught up. That was a liquidity crises. Where it exposed the EZ ECB weakness. So eventually more benchmarks were adopted on banks worldwide. To prevent the next one. Guess what. Its not printed yet, because people stick their head in the sand. Russians owe European banks. That money is not being paid back. Ukraine's owe Europeans banks. That money is not being paid back. Meanwhile the houses are being destroyed. That's the collateral. Those benchmarks didnt plan for that. The E banks will need to absorb Europe's second largest countries damages. There is no insurance in war. Those are 100% losses. E banks are not going to Russia, and reposes bad mortgage debt. That's a lost cause. I know the ecb and eu has to calm to the masses. To prevent a rush on banks. War is at the borders. We all hope it stops. But even if it does.

E-Banks are already holding a empty bag. Because all energy cost more in Europe. That kicks industrials in the balls. Its been trending this way closer to 1970s since 2009. When the U.S. started to buy more oil than it produced. That tide has turned since 2009. Energy is the most expensive cost in any heavy industrial production. It simply cost more to build stuff in Europe. If the cost to build a car is 40/65% in energy cost. In Europe the electric energy cost is double the U.S. grid. About 13 cents in the U.S. and 26 cents in Europe. Plus the logistics of cheaper raw materials. Plus the double shipping to sell a car. Guess where the bean counters want to build. With stock holders, they have no choice. North America is the logical cost. Cheaper energy. raw materials and labor. Get rid of Putin and the options expand to Russia.

If the war spills over Ukraine's borders. It just gets worse for E banks. To be honest, if it doesn't. It will be because banks and insurance companies win the argument over arms makers. In smoke filled rooms with lit cigars. Its probably little to do with pictures of dead children. That machine deals between arm makers and bankers has gone on in Europe for centuries. It just repeats less than the 20 years apart it used to be.

Anyway, a banking crises I anticipate. Give it some time. Energy cost more. The reliance on euro auto makers to sell in the U.S. market. The natural flow to build cars (heavy industrials) cheaper. The reliance on tourism. Inflation is up in the U.S. Unemployment is low. The FED has to raise. The EZ does have inflation. They are screwed. Raise the prices on all your products via the euro? Yeah it can happen. If the war was to spill over. I guess Russia could just cut the NG. Than Germany couldn't build anything. BMW's or tanks. The reliance on Russian energy in the face of a war. Tourism in a war? All this means is, less people will pay loans back. I probably missed a few things. I'm sleepy. Even those other things are in the same trend direction since 2009.

Bulls took over M15 .. next over extended M30

I am buying this.. and buy more..

thank you so much !

The shelling has slowed some. Some experts are saying its the logistics of overstretched supplies. (running out of supplies)

Bulls taking over M30.. 25 mins to go... lets see they can get to H1..