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The Swamp

  • #96,481
  • Mar 6, 2022 7:35pm Mar 6, 2022 7:35pm
Quoting gatorinla
Be careful. None of us have been here before. The eur/Usd has never been here. ...
No doubt, it is bad. But it has been worse.
Compare PA on EURUSD Monthly
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Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #96,482
  • Mar 6, 2022 7:41pm Mar 6, 2022 7:41pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} No doubt, it is bad. But it has been worse. Compare PA on EURUSD Monthly {image}
Your comparing history to unwritten history. What's happening now is future. Just remember that flip from 1.6 was in a uptrend. It completely slapped it down. This time we have a banking crises in Europe, + war, the EZ oil tax, a Fed ready to raise. Last time the Fed was cutting as eu fell. Oil was 14x at the high, last time.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,483
  • Mar 6, 2022 7:44pm Mar 6, 2022 7:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Your comparing history to unwritten history. What's happening now is future
I'm just looking at the chart. The chart tells me things have been worse for EURUSD. However, things could get much worse than that. I do not rule out the possibility. Bottom line, the Euro is apparently screwed!
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #96,484
  • Mar 6, 2022 8:07pm Mar 6, 2022 8:07pm
running inflation numbers from 2008 high on Crude Oil - would mean near $210
low in 2016/2017 on EUR/USD - was 1.036 area

plus we did not have such a huge war in the last 70 years

more flexibility is required.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,485
  • Mar 6, 2022 8:24pm Mar 6, 2022 8:24pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I'm just looking at the chart. The chart tells me things have been worse for EURUSD. However, things could get much worse than that. I do not rule out the possibility. Bottom line, the Euro is apparently screwed!
Understandable. We look at the past to help determine the future. We try to get an edge on where its going. Looking at that chart I saw a defined uptrend, before the large drop.. Looking at the past few months I see the trend is already down, With a bunch of bad news coming. Every recession since the 1960s was proceeded with an oil spike. If there is to be a larger war in Europe. Nato mostly in Europe will need supplies. Someone has to supply it. What has changed for the U/S is the U/S will supply more oil than before. The EU will have a greater cost for oil comparably. I'm too tired to write this for the millionth time. 2008 and today are not the same. The usd is in a better position today than it was in 2008. Even before a war. A war just accelerates things.

The drop that started 1.6 dropped the textbook 23.x. Almost a exact fib retrace. To me 0.8 looks like the attractant. 50% from the high 1.6.
When pa couldn't hold 1.2 I had this as a possible retrace. Because its just normal. Now with all this other crap. Its chances are much better.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,486
  • Mar 6, 2022 8:32pm Mar 6, 2022 8:32pm
here is the first drop post 1.6.. 23.x%
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,487
  • Mar 6, 2022 8:32pm Mar 6, 2022 8:32pm
The Euro is extremely weak, so I am expecting EURAUD to continue its path downward following a brief pullback. I will be looking to place a sell stop order. I think it could go down another 200 pips or more.
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Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #96,488
  • Mar 6, 2022 8:36pm Mar 6, 2022 8:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
here is the first drop post 1.6.. 23.x% {image}
The lowest didnt make 38.x%. At least not yet. 15% below it is 0.8.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,489
  • Mar 6, 2022 9:02pm Mar 6, 2022 9:02pm
interesting to see if 850 is the new 950 resistance good for short or we can climb above
so far is acting like resistance. very close to a 7xx print that i was expecting. hard to short here.
below is just crashing probably interesting opportunity.

funny to see aud & nzd safe heavens
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,490
  • Mar 6, 2022 9:19pm Mar 6, 2022 9:19pm
Quoting DMA Trader
interesting to see if 850 is the new 950 resistance good for short or we can climb above so far is acting like resistance. very close to a 7xx print that i was expecting. hard to short here. below is just crashing probably interesting opportunity. funny to see aud & nzd safe heavens
860 - 875 - 900
levels to short
above 900 if we can stay we can visit 960 maybe ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,491
  • Mar 6, 2022 9:29pm Mar 6, 2022 9:29pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} 860 - 875 - 900 levels to short above 900 if we can stay we can visit 960 maybe ?
got back into short.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,492
  • Mar 7, 2022 12:16am Mar 7, 2022 12:16am
Morning, leaving a pending long closer to daily S2 - 1.0792.

I simply can't believe where it is trading at the moment but looking at brent and other commodities, everything is at insane levels.
  • #96,493
  • Mar 7, 2022 2:46am Mar 7, 2022 2:46am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} got back into short.
European Gas Prices
I guess Lagarde is going to hit her 2% Inflation target finally
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,494
  • Mar 7, 2022 2:51am Mar 7, 2022 2:51am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} European Gas Prices I guess Lagarde is going to hit her 2% Inflation target finally {image}
Any long setups you have on your mind mate? Or just keep following the strong downtrend?
Very difficult to short at these levels for me.
  • #96,495
  • Mar 7, 2022 2:54am Mar 7, 2022 2:54am
Quoting Connors
{quote} Any long setups you have on your mind mate? Or just keep following the strong downtrend? Very difficult to short at these levels for me.
nothing yet. maybe the lows in 2016/2017
for now just shorting to the death but decreasing positions

and if we break 1.08 with stops
i do not believe in EUR but i do think at some point USD will get weaker.

but i will use other pairs for that

i am actually looking not for a chart but o a news that can make some sort of capitulation

like - No fly zone on NATO
like Kyiv lost to Russia something that can get a direction

Until then no longs.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,496
  • Mar 7, 2022 2:57am Mar 7, 2022 2:57am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} nothing yet. maybe the lows in 2016/2017 for now just shorting to the death but decreasing positions and if we break 1.08 with stops i do not believe in EUR but i do think at some point USD will get weaker. but i will use other pairs for that i am actually looking not for a chart but o a news that can make some sort of capitulation like - No fly zone on NATO like Kyiv lost to Russia something that can get a direction Until then no longs.
just like this

smaller and smaller until either it crashes or just doesn't move.

but not touching any longs setup. maybe something comes at 800 who knows.
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Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,497
  • Mar 7, 2022 2:58am Mar 7, 2022 2:58am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} just like this smaller and smaller until either it crashes or just doesn't move. but not touching any longs setup. maybe something comes at 800 who knows. {image}
You have some talent I must say. Good job mate.

Will see if it can get to daily S2 and shows some level of strength.
  • #96,498
  • Mar 7, 2022 3:04am Mar 7, 2022 3:04am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} nothing yet. maybe the lows in 2016/2017 for now just shorting to the death but decreasing positions and if we break 1.08 with stops i do not believe in EUR but i do think at some point USD will get weaker. but i will use other pairs for that i am actually looking not for a chart but o a news that can make some sort of capitulation like - No fly zone on NATO like Kyiv lost to Russia something that can get a direction Until then no longs.
Are you suggesting news as the bolded can cause dollar to sell-off? Sellers are having a great time. I just bought some GU this morning and it dumped. Lol...
  • #96,499
  • Mar 7, 2022 3:08am Mar 7, 2022 3:08am
Quoting Connors
{quote} You have some talent I must say. Good job mate. Will see if it can get to daily S2 and shows some level of strength.
i think it's easy honestly - trend is very well respected execution may be a little difficult but that's why i am going with smaller positions and taking profits

we need some really depressing news so we can get against

European stocks are obliterated

for sure we are pricing in some sort of World War.

and what a rally will be. so yeah we need to be careful.
but Europe is in a very big problem and US for the first time i think is doing things different rather than declare war and ask questions after

but a huge rally will come for sure
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #96,500
  • Mar 7, 2022 3:09am Mar 7, 2022 3:09am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Are you suggesting news as the bolded can cause dollar to sell-off? Sellers are having a great time. I just bought some GU this morning and it dumped. Lol...
yeah i think we need a capitulation move on a depressing news or a total declaration of war.
it's still uncertain yeah i also think GU is a better long than EU but. waiting
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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