Only 75% of retail traders lose? | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

This is why 95% of retail traders lose!!! 55 replies

Why you lose money and will always lose 44 replies

Did we Lose any Brokers? Are we going to Lose a few? 1 reply

Script to change EA to long only/ short only at a price level? 1 reply

Real Reasons why Retail Traders lose money 75 replies

Attachments: Only 75% of retail traders lose?
Exit Attachments

Only 75% of retail traders lose?

  • #1
  • First Post: Feb 20, 2022 8:37pm Feb 20, 2022 8:37pm
When I look at broker adverts (at least for those in the UK/EU, where they are required to tell you that the overwhelming majority of retail traders lose money), what makes me scratch my head in perplexity is not that 75, 80, 85% lose but that 25, 20 or 15% DON'T lose money over the last 12 months.

I strongly suspect that brokers/bookies are cooking the books to make the statistic look less than reality, which is probably something like 99.999%.

The 25% are probably people who sign up and don't use their accounts, or who trade once or twice - get lucky and get out.

After all, if you see an advert telling you '99.9999% of retail traders lose money after 12 months' you are likely to think twice about signing up, LOL!

Is there any way to get more information from the brokers/bookies on how they come up with the 75% statistic? FOI request?
  • #2
  • Edited 10:45am Feb 23, 2022 10:17am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting JauntyLoon
When I look at broker adverts (at least for those in the UK/EU, where they are required to tell you that the overwhelming majority of retail traders lose money), what makes me scratch my head in perplexity is not that 75, 80, 85% lose but that 25, 20 or 15% DON'T lose money over the last 12 months. I strongly suspect that brokers/bookies are cooking the books to make the statistic look less than reality, which is probably something like 99.999%. The 25% are probably people who sign up and don't use their accounts, or who trade once or twice - get...
Indeed.

I have closed a few forex accounts with very small gains (for various reasons), so I guess that makes me among the 25% winners...but really, I was a scratch trader just as I suspect the vast majority of that 25% will be. But if you consider the time cost that I put into staring at charts at the expense doing other things, then I was a BIG TIME loser.

The % of traders who actually make meaningful gains from Forex trading, is likely closer to 5%...

...it truly is a dark art, with success depending on factors beyond essential knowledge and skill.

I am at a point where I have the knowledge and skill, but seem to be cursed by an inverse midas touch.....I *should* really have passed the FTMO challenges I am doing by now, but for strange reasons, I still haven't.

'Strange Reasons', such as this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 326 KB


Now, I should give myself a pat on the back for honouring my SL, right? Well, I have a few trades that got DICKFUCKED like that in close proximity. The temptation to abandon my SL the next time around, will be huge, and rest assured the time when I actually cave in and remove my SL, (and at some point I will), will be the time where the market just takes off against me, and doesn't look back.

That trade above, is the difference between me getting my head over the finishing line of the FTMO challenge (which runs out in 2 days), and just sitting on my hands doing fuck all, to make sure I don't blow the free retrial, cos now I am angry, and angry will just never do at this game.

These are no conditions for a man's fate, success, and sense of worth to be determined by.....but that is trading....and if we want to get among that 5% of retailers who can take consistent money from this rigged manipulated game, as final payback for the THOUSANDS of hours we have poured into it.....then this is the shit we must learn to navigate.

....mind u, such a thing as being accustomed to the market u are trading.....USOil is probably one to stay away from. Most of the time, everything is a trap.
  • #3
  • Feb 23, 2022 10:41am Feb 23, 2022 10:41am
75% vs 25% is the constant ratio in between the losers vs the winners.

only 4 out of 10,000 traders stay (consistently) in the winning 25%.

the rest 9,996 traders are moving from/to 25% group to the 75% group. back and forth. they all, 9,996 traders, lose all of their capital for about 6 months (on average). on average, a trader deposits below $2,000 usd. it is more like ~$1,500 usd.
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #4
  • Feb 23, 2022 11:20am Feb 23, 2022 11:20am
Quoting JauntyLoon
When I look at broker adverts (at least for those in the UK/EU, where they are required to tell you that the overwhelming majority of retail traders lose money), what makes me scratch my head in perplexity is not that 75, 80, 85% lose but that 25, 20 or 15% DON'T lose money over the last 12 months. I strongly suspect that brokers/bookies are cooking the books to make the statistic look less than reality, which is probably something like 99.999%. The 25% are probably people who sign up and don't use their accounts, or who trade once or twice - get...
They say like "More than 75% of retail trades lose all their money within 1 year". Lose all the money. So if some left 1$ on the account he automatically goes to 25% winners.
Next. If you lose them at day 370, you will be kicked off that statistics too. So since forex is fake here we have a lie again. Don't know how much lose, I think 99% for sure.

But why you need info how many lose? Many. Almost all. Only FF members who can draw lines on the charts win. All other people lose.
Observer effect
  • #5
  • Feb 28, 2022 2:01am Feb 28, 2022 2:01am
I get bombarded by FX 'educators' all the time. Never mind regulating Bitcoin, it's time to regulate the 'educators'.

I saw some very enlightening threads on Forex Peace Academy. ALL these people should be thoroughly audited and have their REAL statistics displayed in large text on all their advertising and promotional material.

Yeah this is a subject that bothers me, because 1) I myself got suckered in and 2) it doesn't chime with the high levels of regulation that other parts of the financial service industry are under. This part of the market still feels like the wild west.
  • #6
  • Edited 10:14pm Feb 28, 2022 10:04pm | Edited 10:14pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
I get bombarded by FX 'educators' all the time. Never mind regulating Bitcoin, it's time to regulate the 'educators'. I saw some very enlightening threads on Forex Peace Academy. ALL these people should be thoroughly audited and have their REAL statistics displayed in large text on all their advertising and promotional material. Yeah this is a subject that bothers me, because 1) I myself got suckered in and 2) it doesn't chime with the high levels of regulation that other parts of the financial service industry are under. This part of the market...
There are a lot of Snake Oil salesmen in the space for sure...some really big names as well whom I have been recommended by other aspiring traders, yet I watch their videos and my experience instantly tells me...bullshitter. I can see the guy is bullshitting, BECAUSE I have experience and know the difference between a robust approach to trading and cherry picked b.s. For those who don't know the difference however, they can be sold some real red herrings, which can cost them dearly, both in terms of capital and time spent in the wild goose chase....."I am doing everything 'right', so why do I always get put on my ass!"

Bottom line is, there probably aren't any simple algorithmic based strategies, that will work consistently, which is what the novice or even intermediate trader is looking for. What there is, is a trader with extensive experience of following the markets, that starts to get a feel for likely outcomes, can identify key levels and good trade locations, or gets adept at recognising when to simply buy the dip, and how deep to anticipate that the dip may go.

In my view, despite the focus on a consistent structured approach to trading, with a big long checklist of setup rules and such, it's 5% setup, 95% trader intuition. Anyone can follow a setup. Developing good trader intuition literally takes thousands of hours (or it did in my case)....oh, and then there is trader psychology. The cliched thing to say, is that trading is 25% technical ability, 75% psychology. I think that is b.s, but the psychological aspect is something that will just won't go away and will force you into repeating the same errors time and time again, even knowing that you are repeating errors at the time....or do you? The rule seems to be, stick to plan and be punished, abandon plan and be punished....so best just stick to plan. Or double risk size, LOSE, half risk size, WIN....so best just keep risk size always the same.......(unless u really are just experimenting, then make risk size really small)

If I knew precisely how gruelling and long winded the process would be when I was starting to get interested, I would have thrown in the towel right away......but now that I have put so much into it, it is something I simply cannot just throw aside......that, and I am pretty decent, although still prone to plenty hiccups and standard school boy errors that cost me.
  • #7
  • Mar 1, 2022 3:21am Mar 1, 2022 3:21am
The 2/8 rule of the market, but 1/9 feels more accurate。
  • #8
  • Mar 1, 2022 2:36pm Mar 1, 2022 2:36pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
When I look at broker adverts (at least for those in the UK/EU, where they are required to tell you that the overwhelming majority of retail traders lose money), what makes me scratch my head in perplexity is not that 75, 80, 85% lose but that 25, 20 or 15% DON'T lose money over the last 12 months. I strongly suspect that brokers/bookies are cooking the books to make the statistic look less than reality, which is probably something like 99.999%. The 25% are probably people who sign up and don't use their accounts, or who trade once or twice - get...
To be successful one needs to invest in his education and technology. You cannot assume you will succeed by trading eurusd on M15 on a laptop.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #9
  • Mar 3, 2022 11:10am Mar 3, 2022 11:10am
Quoting RCtrader
{quote} To be successful one needs to invest in his education and technology. You cannot assume you will succeed by trading eurusd on M15 on a laptop.



Investing, patience and being sensible is the direct opposite of day trading
  • #10
  • Mar 3, 2022 11:24am Mar 3, 2022 11:24am
In fact trading is very easy. You can easy jump to 25% winners. All you need is to follow 10 simple rules:

1. Trade on demo for 1 year.
2. Use at least 2 the same indicators on one chart. For example RSI and Stoch. One will confirm another.
3. Do not use algo trading. Only manual trades.
4. Trade only on higher TFs. Lower TFs are noisy.
5. Read all the news before start trading. To better feel the market.
6. Use drawing tools to draw lines on the chart. They will act like support and resistance and attract the price.
7. Understand that market is random and highly manipulated.
8. There are billions and trillions on forex market, millions of institutional investors and banks.
9. Try to act like a robot: remove the feelings, especially greed and fear.
10. Be patient and always use stop losses.
Observer effect
  • #11
  • Mar 3, 2022 12:12pm Mar 3, 2022 12:12pm
Quoting ryuryu
In fact trading is very easy. You can easy jump to 25% winners. All you need is to follow 10 simple rules:...
haha!
this is brilliant!
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #12
  • Mar 3, 2022 12:39pm Mar 3, 2022 12:39pm
Quoting ryuryu
In fact trading is very easy. You can easy jump to 25% winners. All you need is to follow 10 simple rules: 1. Trade on demo for 1 year. 2. Use at least 2 the same indicators on one chart. For example RSI and Stoch. One will confirm another. 3. Do not use algo trading. Only manual trades. 4. Trade only on higher TFs. Lower TFs are noisy. 5. Read all the news before start trading. To better feel the market. 6. Use drawing tools to draw lines on the chart. They will act like support and resistance and attract the price. 7. Understand that market...
I love it.
  • #13
  • Mar 3, 2022 2:35pm Mar 3, 2022 2:35pm
Quoting ryuryu
In fact trading is very easy. You can easy jump to 25% winners. All you need is to follow 10 simple rules: 1. Trade on demo for 1 year. 2. Use at least 2 the same indicators on one chart. For example RSI and Stoch. One will confirm another. 3. Do not use algo trading. Only manual trades. 4. Trade only on higher TFs. Lower TFs are noisy. 5. Read all the news before start trading. To better feel the market. 6. Use drawing tools to draw lines on the chart. They will act like support and resistance and attract the price. 7. Understand that market is...
"7. Understand that market is random and highly manipulated."

On ignore list of scammers, deceivers and low IQ individuals. Exclusively
  • #14
  • Mar 4, 2022 12:29am Mar 4, 2022 12:29am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} haha! this is brilliant!
hes a brokers friend
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #15
  • Mar 4, 2022 8:07am Mar 4, 2022 8:07am
Psychology is definitely at play. I went and re-read Edwards and McGee book, turned off indicators and did some backtesting in Trading View on a 4hr chart using only 200 MA and monthly pivots as well as candle 'signals'. Did much better without using any oscillators.

I think the 'psychology' is the continual hope of being able to trade for a living and not have to get a real job. It keeps suckering you back in. It doesn't make you a winner. It's more like having an addiction to nicotine.
  • #16
  • Mar 4, 2022 2:17pm Mar 4, 2022 2:17pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
Psychology is definitely at play.
Quoting JauntyLoon
I went and re-read Edwards and McGee book
Quoting JauntyLoon
turned off indicators
Quoting JauntyLoon
4hr chart using only 200 MA and monthly pivots
Sure. Psychology is definitely at play. Google what is magical thinking. You are just a perfect example.
Observer effect
  • #17
  • Mar 5, 2022 2:23pm Mar 5, 2022 2:23pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Sure. Psychology is definitely at play. Google what is magical thinking. You are just a perfect example.

That's what I was kind of getting at, brother.
  • #18
  • Mar 5, 2022 3:21pm Mar 5, 2022 3:21pm
I think statistics show somewhere around 99.5% of all retail losses on a 5 years timer scale.
  • #19
  • Mar 6, 2022 11:21pm Mar 6, 2022 11:21pm
Quoting bfx17
{quote} "7. Understand that market is random and highly manipulated."

Yeah highly controversial statement, but well sometimes markets are really random but can be manipulated if liquidity is low and there is some strong catalyst like news release or some event.
  • #20
  • Mar 10, 2022 4:55am Mar 10, 2022 4:55am
On the other hand, if those retail traders put money into an S&P 500 ETF over 5 - 10 years they would make money?

They would make slightly more if they put it into the QQQ but with higher volatility.

But the greatest profits to be made over the last ten years was to put all your money into Apple, which has outperformed both.
0 traders viewing now