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Trend Cycle Entry

  • #241
  • Edited 2:58pm Feb 24, 2022 12:30pm | Edited 2:58pm
I'm going to throw something at you that is completely unorthodox. But it proves a point.

The chart below is USDJPY 4HR. We focus so much on candles that for this exercise, I have removed them. There are 8 vertical lines on the chart. Red is to enter short. Green is to enter long. The criteria for a trade is:

1. White (15 EMA) crosses Green (50 SMA)
2. StochasticRSI opposite cycle, then green (K) crosses red (D) AND is in the purple zone (between 80% and 20%) - enter here or add to the trade here.

What do you see?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There are two trades, the 6th and the 8th that would be barely profitable if held very short term - a few hours max. The rest are very profitable. To be fair though, ff we count 6 and 8 as being losses (hitting a stop loss), you still have a 75% success rate in just these 8 trades alone. Do the math. 6 good winners, 2 small losers depending on your risk tolerance.

Sometimes, eliminating the complexity can make things abundantly clear.
  • #242
  • Feb 24, 2022 1:10pm Feb 24, 2022 1:10pm
Quoting clayton89
{quote} No Bollinger Bands, wrong MA's, no stochrsi etc.. What relevance does your charts have to this thread? We're here to work on the strategy provided by WD.
My trading religion forbids me to use Bollinger Bands, only fixed width Envelopes.
  • #243
  • Feb 24, 2022 1:46pm Feb 24, 2022 1:46pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
I'm going to throw something at you that is completely unorthodox. But it proves a point. The chart below is USDJPY 4HR. We focus so much on candles that for this exercise, I have removed them. There are 8 vertical lines on the chart. Red is to enter short. Green is to enter long. The criteria for a trade is: 1. White (15 EMA) crosses Green (50 SMA) 2. StochasticRSI opposite cycle, then green (K) crosses red (D) AND is in the purple zone (between 80% and 20%) - enter here or add to the trade here. What do you see? {image} There are two trades,...
WD Excellent !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #244
  • Feb 24, 2022 1:52pm Feb 24, 2022 1:52pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} My trading religion forbids me to use Bollinger Bands, only fixed width Envelopes.
My trading religion precepts allow that :
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  • #245
  • Feb 24, 2022 1:59pm Feb 24, 2022 1:59pm
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  • #246
  • Feb 24, 2022 2:58pm Feb 24, 2022 2:58pm
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  • #247
  • Feb 24, 2022 3:04pm Feb 24, 2022 3:04pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} WD Excellent ! {image} {image}
We're having fun now, eh?
  • #248
  • Feb 24, 2022 5:02pm Feb 24, 2022 5:02pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} My trading religion precepts allow that : {image}
Like most zealots, you're acting like a bit of a dick. You have your own thread where you show what a clever fellow you are. If anyone in this thread was remotely interested in what you peddle, they can subscribe to your thread. You're totally polluting this thread and I hope WD bans you from it.
  • #249
  • Feb 25, 2022 1:55am Feb 25, 2022 1:55am
Quoting Hazeem
{quote} Pls THA58, can you paste your SL , percentage, lots size indicator. I would appreciate
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 LotSizeAutoCalculator.ex4   8 KB | 280 downloads
  • #250
  • Edited 4:45am Feb 25, 2022 4:20am | Edited 4:45am
Quoting ToBeSure
{quote} Like most zealots, you're acting like a bit of a dick. You have your own thread where you show what a clever fellow you are. If anyone in this thread was remotely interested in what you peddle, they can subscribe to your thread. You're totally polluting this thread and I hope WD bans you from it.

I do not argue anymore with negative people . It is a waste of time and energy.

Why I stumble on this thread ? because of its title. Trend Cycle Entry. I am interested in Cycles since 2006 and I work with.

Obviously I am interested in Trend(s) hence in Moving Averages

As traders we are all interested in Entry - when and where to enter and Exit - - when and where toexit. And also where to position our Stop Loss
  • #251
  • Feb 25, 2022 5:20am Feb 25, 2022 5:20am
Even under the vigilant scrutiny of Tobesure, I assume that reposting and commenting a chart posted by WD is allowed.

Tobesure being an expert in Cycles, Trends and Moving Averages knows for sure how a Moving Average works. Only his modesty and discretion forbids him to tell us.

A Moving Average is a Low Bandpass Filter. This impressive mathematical formulation is just used to dissuade traders to understand how Moving Averages work in trading.

a) First a Moving Average suppresses all frequencies equal to its span. Hence here on WD chart you see in green the MA 50 (4 H). Then it suppresses all 50 Time Units Cycle ( if it exists one in the data.)

b) the MA 50 reduces greatly all fluctuations lower than 50 Time Units. Sometimes you find traces of these minor fluctuations in the 50 MA. Here we see none.

c) the MA 50 let's go through all fluctuations (frequencies, vibrations) greater than 50 Time Units and summed them Up

It is why the MA 50 show us the Trend of all fluctuations within the data whose period (span) is greater than 50 Time Units.

A moving Average is a smoother. You can see it when observing the 15 EMA in white on the WD chart. Clearly the 50 MA smoothes Price Action but also the shorter term frequencies displayed by the 15 EMA.

15 and 50 are the cut off points used by Wicked Daddy in his Trading Sytem
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  • #252
  • Feb 25, 2022 5:36am Feb 25, 2022 5:36am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} I do not argue anymore with negative people . It is a waste of time and energy. Why I stumble on this thread ? because of its title. Trend Cycle Entry. I am interested in Cycles since 2006 and I work with. Obviously I am interested in Trend(s) hence in Moving Averages As traders we are all interested in Entry - when and where to enter and Exit - - when and where toexit. And also where to position our Stop Loss
I don't care whether you argue with me or not. It's not a case of being negative, it's about the context of your posts. You are taking the word "Cycle" in the thread title and inserting your Hurst Cycle "religion" into it. Anyone can see that this thread is all about WD's "Cycle" system, not Hurst's or Parisboy's "Cycle" system. WD has meticulously detailed how his system works so that others can take advantage of it. All your posts have the potential to do is dilute the effectiveness of this thread and confuse people that stumble across it looking for a relatively straightforward and mechanical system that allows for some discretionary trader input.

Your system obviously works for you and I don't doubt it's efficacy if you can understand it. But this thread is not the place for it. The most helpful thing you could have done is posted a "one-liner" in this thread saying "If anyone is interested in another take on cycle trading, please take a look at my thread". That's it. Simple. But instead, you showboat with your chart entries that have zero to do with the theme and basis of this thread. Your arrogance goes before you.
  • #253
  • Feb 25, 2022 5:37am Feb 25, 2022 5:37am
Quoting parisboy
Even under the vigilant scrutiny of Tobesure, I assume that reposting and commenting a chart posted by WD is allowed. Tobesure being an expert in Cycles, Trends and Moving Averages knows for sure how a Moving Average works. Only his modesty and discretion forbids him to tell us. A Moving Average is a Low Bandpass Filter. This impressive mathematical formulation is just used to dissuade traders to understand how Moving Averages work in trading. a) First a Moving Average suppresses all frequencies equal to its span. Hence here on WD chart...
Totally and utterly irrelevant to the subject matter of this thread.
  • #254
  • Feb 25, 2022 6:23am Feb 25, 2022 6:23am
I see that what I thought would happen, unfortunately has happened... as it does in probably every thread on any forum, regardless of topic.

Someone hijacks the thread with their opinion or whatever. Some jump on board while others reprimand the hijacker (appreciated, thank you). Ultimately, the thread becomes polluted with berating banter back and forth and the integrity of the original intent is lost.

I started this thread to share with this community something that has worked well for me. I learned a lot here early on and it's my turn to share some experience, for what it's worth. I fully expect that some experienced traders will offer ideas, views, and insight that will not only improve the technique, but provide valuable education to less experienced traders. That is my hope.

If I am to assume positive intent (which would be my preference), ParisBoy has perhaps unintentionally introduced a concept that could be perceived as related to my method. But it could also complicate it and confuse those who are attempting to employ my version of TCE into their trading. I will respectfully ask that we stay on point and focus on the method for which this thread is dedicated.

If we can't manage to do that, I will shut the thread down before it becomes devoid of its original intent.
  • #255
  • Feb 25, 2022 6:38am Feb 25, 2022 6:38am
Quoting WickedDaddy
I see that what I thought would happen, unfortunately has happened... as it does in probably every thread on any forum, regardless of topic. Someone hijacks the thread with their opinion or whatever. Some jump on board while others reprimand the hijacker (appreciated, thank you). Ultimately, the thread becomes polluted with berating banter back and forth and the integrity of the original intent is lost. I started this thread to share with this community something that has worked well for me. I learned a lot here early on and it's my turn to share...
ok no problem WD it is your thread
  • #256
  • Feb 25, 2022 6:39am Feb 25, 2022 6:39am
Quoting WickedDaddy
I see that what I thought would happen, unfortunately has happened... as it does in probably every thread on any forum, regardless of topic. Someone hijacks the thread with their opinion or whatever. Some jump on board while others reprimand the hijacker (appreciated, thank you). Ultimately, the thread becomes polluted with berating banter back and forth and the integrity of the original intent is lost. I started this thread to share with this community something that has worked well for me. I learned a lot here early on and it's my turn to share...
Your' looks to be a good thread. You are giving Paris Boy way too much credit. There is no positive intent. For him, it's about how anything any one shows,it can be replicated by his tools/concepts he has learned. Not the first thread he has done this nor will it be last. Best to put him on ignore and continue on one's path.
  • #257
  • Feb 25, 2022 6:59am Feb 25, 2022 6:59am
A Guy's Gotta Sleep...

Below is an example of a trade I set up before going to bed last night. We're looking at EURUSD on a 1 HR chart. I went to bed during the second to last green candle before they turned red. I estimated that price would continue upward and intersect the contracting BB at 1.1240. This would satisfy all the rules except the candle color change rule. I also estimated that it would then reverse and fall to at least that area of consolidation, producing 40 pips of profit. I love waking up to money in the bank. So I set up the order and contingent TP order and went to bed.

Well, as you can see, it didn't get there. The order didn't get triggered. You can't win 'em all. And to add insult to injury, the current candle is hitting the entry target and intersecting the BB. But only time will tell what happens from here.

Damn the torpedoes! Full speed ahead!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #258
  • Feb 25, 2022 8:03am Feb 25, 2022 8:03am
Quoting WickedDaddy
A Guy's Gotta Sleep... Below is an example of a trade I set up before going to bed last night. We're looking at EURUSD on a 1 HR chart. I went to bed during the second to last green candle before they turned red. I estimated that price would continue upward and intersect the contracting BB at 1.1240. This would satisfy all the rules except the candle color change rule. I also estimated that it would then reverse and fall to at least that area of consolidation, producing 40 pips of profit. I love waking up to money in the bank. So I set up the order...
I was wondering if you took the H4 Buy set up on the EURUSD which transformed earlier today ?? I didnt take it but I looked at the H4 and it looked like a nice H4 Buy.
  • #259
  • Feb 25, 2022 9:43am Feb 25, 2022 9:43am
Quoting pipsquick16
{quote} I was wondering if you took the H4 Buy set up on the EURUSD which transformed earlier today ?? I didnt take it but I looked at the H4 and it looked like a nice H4 Buy.
Buy set-up on 4 HR EU? I don't see it (at least, not by the rules).

There was a 2nd cycle buy set-up on 4 HR AU that looked pretty good. I didn't take it because the 100 and 200 SMA were holding the price at the time and I had to go to dinner with a former client. It turned out to be a good trade. I probably would have entered once price cleared the MAs - At least the client bought me dinner... Could have banked some cash on that one.
  • #260
  • Feb 25, 2022 10:54am Feb 25, 2022 10:54am
Now possible to join with the discord group WickedDaddy himself is there too.

invite: https://discord.gg/rS9tSWWHv5
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