Profit / Loss Analysis

Correcting mistakes and analysing successful trades is a key trading process.
A very good practice is to write down your mistakes and successes so that you connect the subconscious mind to solve problems and remember successful actions.

Below I will analyse some of my trades, but this is not a template, you can post yours as you like, any is appreciated, even a lonely fact of your mistake or an analysis of other's mistakes and profits.

1.
- MACD signal
- EMA 200 breakout
- According to the trend.
The stop loss is set below the resistance level. There is an alternative to exit the market in case of resistance at the 1.18100

2.
I rushed, not receiving a clear confirmation from main indicators, and at the same time did not foresee a possible movement through the 78.6% retracement level.
It was possible to set a stop loss closer, just above the key level 1.18600, that's breakout opens continued growth. If the uptrend were broken, there would be a risk of the fall completion at the key support 1.17950. The trade might have had to be closed prematurely with a small profit.

3.
- Clear MACD and RSI indicators confirmation
- The key high level 1.19060 was not broken
- Opening time frame is 4 hours.
The stop loss was moved to the profit at 1.18562 in case the key support at 1.18350 completes the decline.

4.
- Quite risky buy trade on the downtrend correction, near its support
- The key fact is 50% correction level was reached taking into account 4 hours.
- Strict stop loss level.
Close on touch EMA 50 but I see that I rushed and missed 24 pips.

5.
- Late but clear signal MACD
- EMA 50 touch
- correction depth is more than 50%
- confident downward.
Opening after a local upward correction and close by take profit before the key level 1.17300 and trend support.

As long as we can keep the win-rate above the percentage of “(average loss) / (average loss + average gain)”, we’ll be okay …

Thanks for sharing this. I think it's very important to look back on your trades to see where you went right and wrong. Very honest trading. You will never win them all but if we end up in the positive overall then we are doing a good job. I will try and put together some of my trades and share too.

This is a conceptually correct approach that you analyze not only loss trades, but also profitable ones. Very often, problems lie even in profitable trades, and also losses are not always caused by a wrong trading strategy or some mistakes.
You asked to share the same analysis, but for now I am trying to structure the information. Perhaps I would not have done this if I had not seen your post. Let's see what it leads to.
There is no limit to improve your skills. I look forward to hearing more from you.

Not only the successful trades but analysing the trades where we fail are more important. I always write minutest of details in my trading journal, it helps me to not repeat the same mistakes time and again.

The chfjpy and eurjpy trades. Opened after MACD confirmation on the 4-hour chart. But I figured that the main daily trend should start a correction. The trend continued and trades were closed by stop loss. I took the risk of entering the market against the trend, at a time when there were no key resistance levels in the trend direction.

The first dollar yen trade was opened after MACD confirmation and visible divergence. During the first 24 hours, I could have taken a profit, but unfortunately, the EMA100 was not broken and the price went in the opposite direction. I should have exited at the moment the EMA100 was reached. The profit is too small.
I opened the second trade for this pair when the divergence was already more certain and the MACD confirmation became clearer. The EMA 100 was not broken, but retesting was evident. After its breakout, the trade confirmed its profitability.

The euro dollar trade. I entered the market after the key level 1.1635 was passed, but at the same time, the EMA 200 was still a strong obstacle. The stop loss level was reached after 1.16650 was tested again, and the moment the price reached it, I should have closed the trade with a profit.

The pound dollar is quite risky, but I understood that this is the upward trend resistance, I saw the MACD has been moving in the horizontal channel for a long time, and at the same time, the RSI has been above 70 for a long time.
And the yen trade was opened by clear confirmation from MACD. I did not close the loss during testing the 158.20 level, knowing that there might be a reversal, but at the same time, I did not risk waiting for the EMA 100 to be broken, since support 157.00 was already close.

Euro Dollar
Clear confirmation of MACD and EMA 100 crossing on the hourly chart. The trade closed by take profit I set above the key support 1.15130. The main disadvantage in this situation is a early exit when the clear signals to continue falling. I decided not to change the parameters of the trade and not to enter the market again, accepting the profit that had already been fixed.

Pound Dollar
1. Unconfirmed 100 EMA on 1 hour chart, and clear MACD crossing (finally EMA levels were passed and confirmed the direction). But the take profit was set above the support level 1.37120, so I could not get the maximum profit, at least up to 1.36700.
2. The situation is similar as for the euro dollar. These trades were opened at the same time and were traded using similar parameters.

Thus, these trades show inaccuracy that affects profits.
Exiting a profit trade early is a similar mistake as closing a losing trade late.
But this idea requires more attention, so I would expand on it in more detail later. If you have any thoughts, I will be glad to discuss.

This is what happens when no take profit is set. After the Euro Dollar dropped to its lowest in July 2020, I could close the trade with a much higher profit.
Conclusion: use take profit if possible and correctly assess the market prospects.

The pound dollar trade displays a mistake in exit of the market. I was planning to close this trade at 1.3360. I took into account the fact that the price was near the EMA 200 and had just overcome the 38.2% retracement, which propose a clear sell. On the 30 minute chart the MACD also indicated a possible reversal movement. Inspired by the fact that earlier the EMA 200 had not been passed, I decided to enter with sell.
I set my stop loss above the EMA 200 in order to exit the market if it is broken.
The support at 1.34050 was falsely broken but I decided not to take profit and hope to reach the key target. It was a mistake, this trade did not bring me any profit.

Pound Yen
The MACD indicators on the 30 minute and hour charts showed a buy signal, while the general trend direction on the four hour chart was consistent with this data, but the MACD just started to cross the signal line. The position of the chart above the EMA 200 and 100 lines also indicated the continuation of the uptrend. I set my take profit below the key resistance level of 157.700 and the trade was closed at 157.435, although I could have taken more profit if I believed the trend will expand and reach 158.0.
I was too cautious in this situation, but nevertheless, I completed the trading task and made a profit.

Analysis of the mistake on July 12 Dollar Yen buy trade.

After a short-term decline on the 30-minute chart, I saw the possibility of a narrowing correction and further growth in line with the main trend. I planned to trade inside the correction and in case of breaking through its borders and the top of 137.750, hold the trade for maximum profit until the start of a new correction. Stop loss was set at 136.510, which was below the key level of 136.550. Thus, I saved trade against a trend reversal.
My very first mistake is the preference for indicator signals on smaller timeframes. My attention was focused on 30 minutes, while at 4 hours there was no clear position of indicators to buy, and on the hourly chart, there was a MACD in the sell at all.
The second mistake, which is quite controversial is the stop loss (usually controversial topic).
There are several options that could happen:
1. There is no stop loss, the trader chooses to hold the trade or not. There is a chance to get out of losses by showing patience and self-confidence and also chance to increase losses and .
2. There is a stop loss, but the trader sees that the market has reversed and closes the deal prematurely, without waiting for the stop loss, showing caution and self-confidence. (The one I chose)
3. There is a stop-loss, the trader waits until the last, until the trade reaches it or goes into profit. The trader shows confidence and patience.
On the chart, you can see that the touch of the stop-loss level was not clear and the market immediately reversed. This also leads to the conclusion that the stop-loss level is chosen with a slight inaccuracy. So setting a proper stop loss and holding the position without an early exit could have been profitable for me in the longer term, as you can see the market is already far higher.
In a conclusion I would like to note that even small inaccuracies can lead to losses, as well as the trader's behavior and confidence. It is important to find a balance between caution and confidence.
In my case, I made a choice in favor of caution, but further I worked through the mistakes and in the next trades I managed to achieve record high results.
Any trade, regardless of profit amount, brings you closer to success, because the most important thing is experience.

Trading profit / loss analysis of 4 latest trades

Analysing trades over the past week has shown some interesting facts that I would like to share. These trades showed the imperfection of the trading system, and also, will allow me to continue working on the mistakes that I managed to find.
The list of trades:

1. Euro Franc (buy 0.98583)
2. Pound Yen (buy 164.677)
3. New Zealand dollar US dollar (sell 0.62533)
4. Euro Dollar (sell 1.02183)

eur/usd sell trade was closed manually, at a price 1.01702.
Honestly, I regret that I closed the trade too early, because the EMA 100 and EMA 200 clearly showed a further fall, but I was afraid of a false break, as well as the impact of key support 1.01600 (which was also broken soon) and did not risk the funds that I have already been obtained. The opening of the trade was confirmed clearly according to the MACD data on the four-hour and hourly charts.



eur/chf buy was manually closed at 0.98215, although the stop loss was set lower at 0.98128.
I got MACD confirmation on the 4-hour chart, and there were no preconditions for a sell signal on the 1-hour chart. It was necessary to pay attention to the false breakdown of the EMA 200 on the hourly chart, although the EMA 100 was already below. Since I saw that the currency pair was going into a long fall according to the MACD, EMA and the formed down channel, I decided not to wait for the stop loss to be reached, which was the right decision, as you can see on the chart.


gbp/jpy buy was manually closed at 164.918 after a long drawdown that I had to wait out.
I opened a trade according to the MACD data, after breaking through the EMA 200 on the hourly and four-hour charts. If I had held during July 27, I could have taken profits around 166.00, but I decided not to take risks and closed the trade before the key resistance at 165.100. It was a hasty decision, due to some tension that had arisen during the drawdown earlier. The MACD and EMA provided clear enough data to trade further, but I didn’t use them.


nzd/usd sell manually closed at 0.62269.
The main factor that pointed me in the direction of this trade was the divergence on the four hour chart. Also, I saw some consolidation in the EMA 200 area, which indicated that the market is not ready for a breakout and this is a sign of further uptrend correction. This is one of the few trades I have ever traded from the top of an uptrend knowing that it could be dangerous if the channel widened.

Profit / Loss analysis September 21

EUR/JPY
After clear MACD signals (crossing the signal line and pronounced convergence) on the hourly chart, also price line position under the EMA 100 and EMA 200 lines, gave me reason to open a sell trade.
I took into account the possible risks that could be associated with support at 142.00 and it can be noted as EMA 100 on the four hour chart. But having shown patience and trust in my trading system, I was in no hurry to close the trade too early, during the pullback of 141.840 – 142.250.
In addition, I saw that the Euro Dollar (correlated currency pair for the Euro) did not receive enough support to break the trend.

The GBP/JPY is a currency pair that correlates with the EUR/JPY. The trade was processed according to a similar scenario. I traded the downtrend on the hourly chart even though the MACD was not as clear as the Euro Yen. I took this fact into account during risks calculation.
For both trades the stop loss levels had been placed above the nearest resistance levels.

I was also with that trade (sell position for EURJPY)! Actually, I found a strong head & shoulders pattern of h4!

That's great! Yes, you are right, the head & shoulders is clear visible, nice clarification

gbp jpy continues to rise. If you follow my analysis then on September 30 here I published a preliminary analysis of a possible growth, it was justified.
I took into account the EMA 200 and EMA 100 levels, as well as the MACD signal, to determine direction confirmation. When the market made a small correction, from the EMA 200 level on the four-hour chart, another wave of upward movement began according to the formed trend channel, and after a confident breakout of the key 162.00 area, the market grew to 164.400 (the key level of my forecast) and above, reaching the top of 165.200.
Following the current market position the medium-term trend is made up of 3 waves, the last of which has not yet begun a correction. Thus, I am considering the possibility of further decline to the level of 162.750. On the hourly chart, the MACD is beginning to signal a possible decline, just as the RSI is near the 70 level on the hourly and four-hour charts.
Since the EMA levels are broken by uptrend, I cannot exclude the continuation of growth after a short-term correction. If the local top 165.200 is passed, then the level 166.320 and the key top 168.00 will become the next possible striving points. The MACD on daily chart indicates the following growth.

Thank you, & right now we are almost in the same area! This is such an important area to trade in!