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Trend Cycle Entry

  • #141
  • Feb 15, 2022 10:42am Feb 15, 2022 10:42am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Kofix11 do you know what is the instrument tradedien the chart showed and its timeframe
Which post are you referring to? I'm pretty sure I said what timeframe it was but I may not have stated the instrument. Let me know and I'll correct it if needed.
  • #142
  • Feb 15, 2022 11:12am Feb 15, 2022 11:12am
Quoting MyProfit
{quote} Hello Wickeddaddy, Could you tell us which timeframe(s) are you trading?, EDIT..I read above {quote} OK, Thanks, now we know.. Also.. "Finally, when my rules were "set" I decided to make a checklist. I would check the list for each trade and keep that checklist for the results. That was the beginning of a journal. I have since created a journal that incorporates the rules checklist that I have to fill out for each trade, all the details of the trade conditions, results and notes of the why, what and any factors that were influential (including...
It's a Google sheet and contains financial info. I have copied it into Excel and deleted all my stuff. I added an example trade so you can see how it works (It's not a real trade). There are drop downs and conditional formatting that I hope converted to Excel as well. The inputs should be self explanatory.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Example Trade Journal.xlsx   49 KB | 787 downloads
  • #143
  • Feb 15, 2022 11:17am Feb 15, 2022 11:17am
Quoting since80808
{quote} Sell setup entry candle is marked by the red arrow: {image}Please help me: what was wrong in my rules reading or how could I set this trade without a SL? Thank you!
I notice you are on a 1 HR chart and not using the 1 HR chart set-up (includes 100 and 200 SMA).

That trade sat right on the 200 SMA during an uptrend. I would be looking for long entries during an uptrend.
  • #144
  • Feb 15, 2022 11:36am Feb 15, 2022 11:36am
Quoting ewebb205
Wickeddaddy I have a question for you when you read these messages {image}
OK. What is your question?
  • #145
  • Feb 15, 2022 12:10pm Feb 15, 2022 12:10pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} Which post are you referring to? I'm pretty sure I said what timeframe it was but I may not have stated the instrument. Let me know and I'll correct it if needed.
wd I do not remember. IMHO It is better to post charts showing which pair or stock is used and the time unit so that we can reproduce the configuration on our platform for a better understanding. TIA
  • #146
  • Feb 15, 2022 12:38pm Feb 15, 2022 12:38pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} I use my 1 HR chart (with 100 and 200 SMA) for 4 HR as well. If price is above the SMAs, I am generally looking for long positions, and vice-versa for the opposite.
I've read your previous answer, liked it and thank you!
Could you please look at this situation:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 62 KB
We are under 100sma and 200sma, 50sma and 15sma are crossed for sell (no new cross for now, before the green vertical line), 100sma looks down, stoch rsi looks down - all the marks of the sell setup as for the moment of the green vertical line - no?
Price continues to move up(((

I need to accent once again: I'm intersted in this system and like it VERY much! I just want to know: have we got more (and more and more) filters for setups or how can we trade without SL?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #147
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:17pm Feb 15, 2022 1:17pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 66 KB
  • #148
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:30pm Feb 15, 2022 1:30pm
Quoting parisboy
{image}
No, no, no! (but I'd used those levels also )
I need (I really need) to understand how the author trades without SL for years
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #149
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:50pm Feb 15, 2022 1:50pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} No, no, no! (but I'd used those levels also ) I need (I really need) to understand how the author trades without SL for years
May be he does not trade at all !
  • #150
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:55pm Feb 15, 2022 1:55pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} OK. What is your question?
Could we use the stochastic as a guide? For instance when the lines come out of the ob/os territory? I don't have as much trust in the Heiken ashi candles as you do. I'm sorry
  • #151
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:57pm Feb 15, 2022 1:57pm
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} Could we use the stochastic as a guide? For instance when the lines come out of the ob/os territory? I don't have as much trust in the Heiken ashi candles as you do. I'm sorry
Sometimes I notice the first ha candle to change colors on the exact close of the stochrsi coming out
  • #152
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:57pm Feb 15, 2022 1:57pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} I've read your previous answer, liked it and thank you! Could you please look at this situation: {image}We are under 100sma and 200sma, 50sma and 15sma are crossed for sell (no new cross for now, before the green vertical line), 100sma looks down, stoch rsi looks down - all the marks of the sell setup as for the moment of the green vertical line - no? Price continues to move up((( I need to accent once again: I'm intersted in this system and like it VERY much! I just want to know: have we got more (and more and more) filters for setups or...
That looks like a very tempting trade. However, it is occurring on the 2nd cycle of the downward cross (count the number of times the StochasticRSI cycled above 80% after the 15 EMA crossed below the 50 SMA). So that breaks rule #1.

The 15 EMA is intersecting the 50 SMA at the close of the set-up candle (first red,your arrow). That negates the trade. I would not have taken this trade - so I would not be needing a SL. Here is how it looks on my chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 48 KB


I have not traded since late last week. This Ukraine situation needs to be at least somewhat resolved before I trust the typical market dynamics.

I don't need stop losses because I don't force the trades or take risks on trades that are "just OK". They have to be perfect or I don't enter.

PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE are the holy grail of trading. No method will ever replace those.
  • #153
  • Feb 15, 2022 1:58pm Feb 15, 2022 1:58pm
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} Sometimes I notice the first ha candle to change colors on the exact close of the stochrsi coming out
And maybe exiting trade when the stochrsi hooks over
  • #154
  • Edited 2:57pm Feb 15, 2022 2:17pm | Edited 2:57pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} May be he does not trade at all !
Here is a screen shot of the Performance Analytics of one of my accounts. You will see that I have placed 16 trades so far this year in that account with 0 losers. Unfortunately, the system does not compute performance because there are no losers to compare to. Thus, no risk/reward or disposition either because it needs at least 1 losing trade to compute those metrics.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 149 KB
  • #155
  • Feb 15, 2022 2:31pm Feb 15, 2022 2:31pm
Quoting WickedDaddy
{quote} I would not have taken this trade - so I would not be needing a SL
Thank you for so many details in your answers!
Have you some more filters|points of attention in your analysis or they all are described in your first post (and addition for 1HR TF some posts later)?
Just an opinion. Based on research
  • #156
  • Feb 15, 2022 2:41pm Feb 15, 2022 2:41pm
Quoting ewebb205
{quote} Could we use the stochastic as a guide? For instance when the lines come out of the ob/os territory? I don't have as much trust in the Heiken ashi candles as you do. I'm sorry
They work together. To your point, a turnover in the StochasticRSI indicates a stronger probability than it just being at its extremes. It just depends on how conservative you want to be. Being more conservative means taking fewer trades, which means being even more patient.
  • #157
  • Feb 15, 2022 2:56pm Feb 15, 2022 2:56pm
Quoting parisboy
{quote} May be he does not trade at all !
I lied, I actually did have a losing trade. I have a test account in which I trade a small amount for the purpose of testing slight variations of my method. I remembered that I caused a trade to lose in October of last year because I clicked on the wrong button. Stooooopid mistake! I was going to add to a short trade and when I decided to click on the "sell" button to add to the trade, I clicked on the "buy" button and that closed the trade at a 3 pip loss. I still don't know what I was thinking to do such a dumb thing... but oh well. Ugh!

So here is a better representation of trading results with all the scorecard BS calculated:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 153 KB

Yes, I really do trade.
  • #158
  • Feb 15, 2022 2:59pm Feb 15, 2022 2:59pm
Quoting since80808
{quote} Thank you for so many details in your answers! Have you some more filters|points of attention in your analysis or they all are described in your first post (and addition for 1HR TF some posts later)?
I recently posted this in an answer to Drsun:

My method is very mechanical. But it is not the only way I make trading decisions. A comprehensive trader pays attention to central bank strategies, geopolitics, economic conditions, etc. No chart is going to reveal those conditions. No mechanical method, no matter how amazing, is going to determine the future of price action while CBs are competing for currency weakness, politicians are attempting to manipulate market outcomes or staging fights over political territory, and economies hang in the balance while a virus threatens supply chain havoc.

When the mechanical conditions line up, you still need to ask yourself; "will all other conditions support my trade?"
  • #159
  • Edited 7:42pm Feb 15, 2022 7:22pm | Edited 7:42pm
Quote
The trade is to wait until the 15 EMA crosses the 50 EMA. Once this happens, you are waiting for a reverse cycle (a retrace) in which the candles move to the opposite Bollinger Band and then disconnect from it
Quote
Rules:
Only the first cycle after the cross is executed - 2nd and 3rd cycles are more risky
Price must intersect the BB

Which one???, What is supposed to be the first cross... after the trend changed direction? Or.... a "new' arrow? Or...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: initial cross.png Size: 120 KB
Thanks
"Great Men are not born great, They Grow Great."
  • #160
  • Feb 16, 2022 10:23am Feb 16, 2022 10:23am
Thank you WickedDaddy!
What pairs would you recommend with your system? What pairs do you you trade yourself?
Thank you
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