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The Swamp

  • #95,441
  • Feb 11, 2022 10:33am Feb 11, 2022 10:33am
LC week and day closed lower. I was holding out for 1432, and maybe a retest. From below of 1447 to short. That lc close slightly diminishes the chance of a bounce. It increases the chance 1369 will crack. Neither has happened yet. The best trade now to me, is still to sell 1432. But it may not get there to short.

No change from earlier except the bears look stronger than earlier.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,442
  • Feb 11, 2022 10:46am Feb 11, 2022 10:46am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, debt is an issue. Its just a pozi scheme. Higher wages do bring in more taxes. Inflated products bring in more tax $. Its kinda a wash if you look at it this way. Yeah debt repayment goes higher. Deficit cost more to repay the interest. Its not as clear cut as they make out in the media. If it was we would had gone bankrupt decades ago. The EZ and most modern economies using a income tax system is on the same path. What's the EZ going to do with a economy that's based on 43% on exports? How can they possibly compete with the U.S. who...
another reason why i am calling for parity
but US debt will be talked somewhere along this rate hikes

but of course they can
sign deal with Iran. let Russia do whatever it wants. China getting stronger so they can somehow agree on weaker prices of energy
and lower rates. but China inflation is about 1.5%
Russia hike rates today at 9.5% finishing the year maybe near 11%
while inflation in Russia more or less 5%

THings are not looking ok for US imho on a long term . maybe Trumps comes back )))
China did not meet any of the Criteria for tariffs. deficit record high with US.

.....
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,443
  • Feb 11, 2022 10:46am Feb 11, 2022 10:46am
US 10Y y HOD 2.06 ....
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,444
  • Feb 11, 2022 10:54am Feb 11, 2022 10:54am
Quoting DMA Trader
US 10Y y HOD 2.06 ....
7 rate hikes prices in . so i guess near 2 % by the end of the year ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,445
  • Feb 11, 2022 11:15am Feb 11, 2022 11:15am
Quoting gatorinla
LC week and day closed lower. I was holding out for 1432, and maybe a retest. From below of 1447 to short. That lc close slightly diminishes the chance of a bounce. It increases the chance 1369 will crack. Neither has happened yet. The best trade now to me, is still to sell 1432. But it may not get there to short. No change from earlier except the bears look stronger than earlier.
I may get the bounce still. 4h closes next h. Up to 1432/40/47 followed by a close today below 1367 would be good for me. Just a dream.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,446
  • Feb 11, 2022 11:16am Feb 11, 2022 11:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, debt is an issue. Its just a pozi scheme. Higher wages do bring in more taxes. Inflated products bring in more tax $. Its kinda a wash if you look at it this way. Yeah debt repayment goes higher. Deficit cost more to repay the interest. Its not as clear cut as they make out in the media. If it was we would had gone bankrupt decades ago. The EZ and most modern economies using a income tax system is on the same path. What's the EZ going to do with a economy that's based on 43% on exports? How can they possibly compete with the U.S. who...
This all may or may not be true. Google is a European company in those stats. Beamers have price elasticity and a loooong waiting list worldwide. Chevy don't. And it still looks like a huge bullish flag on the daily... Also, everyone was sceptical about the Draghi put, so...
  • #95,447
  • Feb 11, 2022 12:38pm Feb 11, 2022 12:38pm
at least this EUR want to close below 1.136 that's all i care.

or is just a good place to go long
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,448
  • Feb 11, 2022 12:41pm Feb 11, 2022 12:41pm
Brent - WTI - all new highs from 2014

Transitory and peaked lol
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,449
  • Edited 12:55pm Feb 11, 2022 12:44pm | Edited 12:55pm
1369 broke.. possible s there.. it should become R. But closing below 1331, and it may not rise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,450
  • Feb 11, 2022 12:52pm Feb 11, 2022 12:52pm
UJ down
EU down
CHF up
Stocks Down
Oil Big Up
Yields down

can only mean one thing - = War
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,451
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:01pm Feb 11, 2022 1:01pm
Quoting DMA Trader
UJ down EU down CHF up Stocks Down Oil Big Up Yields down can only mean one thing - = War
and gold.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,452
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:22pm Feb 11, 2022 1:22pm
Quoting gatorinla
1369 broke.. possible s there.. it should become R. But closing below 1331, and it may not rise.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,453
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:27pm Feb 11, 2022 1:27pm
once it breaks 1331 s. it should be ready to take 1308, the next s. next objective is to close below as many as possible. 1369 1331 1308 1208
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,454
  • Feb 11, 2022 1:47pm Feb 11, 2022 1:47pm
Wonder who will have the balls to hold a long over the weekend.
  • #95,455
  • Feb 11, 2022 4:03pm Feb 11, 2022 4:03pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Surprised to see H4 downtrend stop only 1452... 52 pips away... I started to short here 1400... aim for day range low around 1350s area atm... Week range low 1351 will add ...
traded today as planed...
  • #95,456
  • Feb 11, 2022 4:19pm Feb 11, 2022 4:19pm
Pa closed below the week 1369. It should have some R value for closes. But a spike to 1412 should not be discounted. 1447/49 is still a R. So is 1492. 3171 may be a small R to protect 1369 some. 1331 a S that would be a R after, with closes below it. Bears want to close below 1331 and1308. The larger the close the better below. Last month did close below 1308 (1302 at the time.) 1302 or 1308 is a s/r. Pa made a fresh week close below the rejection of 1492, 1447 and 1369. That's bearish as it can be. The cherry on top is a nutkick a week close below 1308. Maybe next week it will. Today the pa above 1369 may mimic the pa above 1331 and 1308. We got a taste of the volatility pa after the break of 1369. Above 1308 and 1331 it may range to 1369. Or just grind on 1331 and 1308 till it runs lower. It may be a large red candle when it breaks.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,457
  • Feb 11, 2022 4:25pm Feb 11, 2022 4:25pm
Quoting snaveman
Wonder who will have the balls to hold a long over the weekend.
Im bearish.. A long at 1308 may bounce some. Maybe 1331. They are like 1369. Or like pa acted Thursday when unable to close below 1407.5. Just like pa inability to close above 1492 leading to test 1447 yesterday. That's why I was so cautious. About all of them.

Just make sure 1308 and 1331 get the closes in the direction you want. I'm bearish because of recent pa. 1208 is another spot. A month close below 1208 opens up a lot of hedge funds to short. Then pa will hit 1.09x. Pa dont always wait for the month to close. We may see it sooner. You just cant fight her. You have to wait for her to relax,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,458
  • Feb 11, 2022 4:46pm Feb 11, 2022 4:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah, debt is an issue. Its just a pozi scheme. Higher wages do bring in more taxes. Inflated products bring in more tax $. Its kinda a wash if you look at it this way. Yeah debt repayment goes higher. Deficit cost more to repay the interest. Its not as clear cut as they make out in the media. If it was we would had gone bankrupt decades ago. The EZ and most modern economies using a income tax system is on the same path. What's the EZ going to do with a economy that's based on 43% on exports? How can they possibly compete with the U.S. who...
It is difficlut to export services
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Price = the amount a greater fool is willing to pay!
  • #95,459
  • Feb 11, 2022 6:13pm Feb 11, 2022 6:13pm
Quoting Pip-hunter
{quote} It is difficlut to export services {image}
The service definition includes a lot of stuff. EZ it 3/4 services.


My point being since we are talking about forex comparably. Raising the price of the product/service you export. No matter cars or tampons. Raising the price produces less customers. When you produce less customers. At some point you lay off workers. That's the ECB dilemma. And that dilemma is 4X greater for the ECB than the Fed. Plus energy cost more in the EZ to build stuff. Not to mention exports are shipped and that added cost. No matter services or jockstraps. Raising the price, via rate hike from the ECB will hurt. The EZ wii hurt to a greater amount than the U.S. About 4X more. It will be hard on the economy/labor to raise. Services includes tourism. Many people do Europe on a CC. In the shadow of covid, raising rates. Wont help tourism. That sector is already in trouble.

We were talking about exporting. And the affect's' on the eur/usd

Now we have the Putin effect.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,460
  • Feb 11, 2022 8:02pm Feb 11, 2022 8:02pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i was expecting the same thing - but it has to come a point where it should get wery well on auction both pair traders are forcing FED and ECB to pay way more what is US going to do with such a debt ? just pay big interest . i think not.
1 month is not a trend. But here is January 2022. Its lower than 2019 2020 and 2021. Due to increased revenue. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/report/...iture%20growth.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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