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The Swamp

  • #95,421
  • Feb 10, 2022 3:04pm Feb 10, 2022 3:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
I would be nice if 1430 is the high for Friday.
Just that quick.

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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,422
  • Feb 10, 2022 3:34pm Feb 10, 2022 3:34pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Less time than I thought. Atm bears do need to close below 1447 and 1434, But pa needs to get to 1400. But now 1451 has an attraction. If 1451 happens before or after today's close matters. I do think the bears will win. Here is where it may be wrong. Bears later need to close under 1401 to beef up 1447.
see is trying..1401
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,423
  • Feb 10, 2022 3:42pm Feb 10, 2022 3:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} see is trying..1401 {image}
=1400.8 helps. Later a close below 1374.5. 1392 a L mofu on the chart. year close =1369.9/67. Boulder;s 4h at 1404
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,424
  • Feb 10, 2022 5:51pm Feb 10, 2022 5:51pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} H4 uptrend stop 1405 tested and held at H4 close, unless bulls giving up H4.. be careful of shorting ....currently bulls are still in control...plus day uptrend only 5 days old... {image}
testing again... 9 mins to go...
  • #95,425
  • Feb 10, 2022 6:05pm Feb 10, 2022 6:05pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} H4 uptrend stop 1405 tested and held at H4 close, unless bulls giving up H4.. be careful of shorting ....currently bulls are still in control...plus day uptrend only 5 days old... {image}
Eur H4 finally reversed to downtrend... its time for me to load up Eur shorts ...
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  • #95,426
  • Feb 10, 2022 6:11pm Feb 10, 2022 6:11pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Eur H4 finally reversed to downtrend... its time for me to load up Eur shorts ... {image}
Surprised to see H4 downtrend stop only 1452... 52 pips away... I started to short here 1400... aim for day range low around 1350s area atm...
Week range low 1351
will add ...
  • #95,427
  • Feb 10, 2022 6:27pm Feb 10, 2022 6:27pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Surprised to see H4 downtrend stop only 1452... 52 pips away... I started to short here 1400... aim for day range low around 1350s area atm... Week range low 1351 will add ...
I;m thinking 1410 has some R
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,428
  • Feb 10, 2022 7:02pm Feb 10, 2022 7:02pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Surprised to see H4 downtrend stop only 1452... 52 pips away... I started to short here 1400... aim for day range low around 1350s area atm... Week range low 1351 will add ...
I got a 1h closed below 1401. The 4h that followed was above. A little mixed but i dont think its going to 1440. I had the R earlier at 1428, See older post. Any way I think a close below 1374/75 is st for a further drop. The next h close is a 6h close. -1400.8 should be a bearish sign that strengthens the R at 1447. More so if below 1374.. What may screw things is S 1369.. Anyway I expect 1331 still. and if it opens. 1308. 1302 may also be support but its no longer a norm,,
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,429
  • Feb 10, 2022 8:05pm Feb 10, 2022 8:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got a 1h closed below 1401. The 4h that followed was above. A little mixed but i dont think its going to 1440. I had the R earlier at 1428, See older post. Any way I think a close below 1374/75 is st for a further drop. The next h close is a 6h close. -1400.8 should be a bearish sign that strengthens the R at 1447. More so if below 1374.. What may screw things is S 1369.. Anyway I expect 1331 still. and if it opens. 1308. 1302 may also be support but its no longer a norm,, {image}
6h below
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,430
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:02pm Feb 10, 2022 9:02pm
I may regret,, I closed because 1369/7x is close. I left some pending entries 1428 and below.. It may want 1430. I have doubts about a large bounce.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,431
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:22pm Feb 10, 2022 9:22pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} rofl was referring to this seems like missed the train to short.. hope it comes to 1.1450 1.1470.. no hope with such close.. it will go to 1.1380 by midnight eastern time.. {image}
So my guess was right it did make it to 1.1380 before midnight eastern....
  • #95,432
  • Feb 10, 2022 9:24pm Feb 10, 2022 9:24pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} So my guess was right it did make it to 1.1380 before midnight eastern....
Tom is Friday anything is possible 1.13 or 1.15
  • #95,433
  • Feb 10, 2022 10:58pm Feb 10, 2022 10:58pm
So is this EUR animal done or still breathing ?

this will not end well. but they will try to take down Lagarde. We've seen this before.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,434
  • Feb 10, 2022 11:01pm Feb 10, 2022 11:01pm
Quoting euroboy2208
{quote} there are some rumours going on an emergency fed rate hike this weekend 50 bps..
It was not a rumour
it was Bullard calling for 1% Fed fund - until July
0.5 hike in march
and He was calling for an emergency rate hike because FED is day dreaming while inflation is 7.5%
not instead of calling inflation transitory - they are saying it has peaked

and they should do .05% fast. but they have their own agenda

Prepare for a big surprise in March from FED/ECB - reduce leverage until then

EUR/USD still has a big support near 1.136
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,435
  • Feb 11, 2022 2:59am Feb 11, 2022 2:59am
Quoting gatorinla
I may regret,, I closed because 1369/7x is close. I left some pending entries 1428 and below.. It may want 1430. I have doubts about a large bounce.
Awake again.. Nothing changed in the bearish view yet. What's happening now is bears made 12h closes below 1407 1401 and 1398, But pa has run into 1369. 1369 has to have closes below to drop, So does 1331 and 1308. Meanwhile I closed because this was the better looking place to bounce. Today being Friday, a week close. It would be better for bears to get a day + close below all these mentioned numbers. Pa can bounce to any of these like 1407 1401 and 1398. In a normal situation back to 1432 is normal. I dont know if pa can rise above those others much, since the 1492 rejection. The 1492 bulls are not dead just yet. After a large close below 1308 that should change. I placed a pending at 1428 and went to bed. I didnt/dont think a normal bounce was coming. I could move it down to 1426 16 07 01 or 1396 I think. But I dont know how high the bounce will be off 1369. I do think a close below these is very bearish. A week close is the strongest one possible later today. On the other side of the coin. The week closed above these last week. That's why I respect this possible bounce. Because I based yesterday's late move on the rejection of 1492. The week can always screw me. The 12h/day makes me think I was right. If so, the bounce may be on the smaller side. Maybe just 1401 or 1407. I pulled my pendings down to 1426 for now. I dont mind splitting them, raising or lowering them. I just need to watch pa. Norm it 1432, so beware of closes above it. Last weeks close was above 1369. So a retest of 1447 is not out the question, pa can go anywhere above after.

I think it will drop, but respect last weeks close above 1369.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,436
  • Feb 11, 2022 3:34am Feb 11, 2022 3:34am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Awake again.. Nothing changed in the bearish view yet. What's happening now is bears made 12h closes below 1407 1401 and 1398, But pa has run into 1369. 1369 has to have closes below to drop, So does 1331 and 1308. Meanwhile I closed because this was the better looking place to bounce. Today being Friday, a week close. It would be better for bears to get a day + close below all these mentioned numbers. Pa can bounce to any of these like 1407 1401 and 1398. In a normal situation back to 1432 is normal. I dont know if pa can rise above those...
1/2 of a normal retrace is 1401.4
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,437
  • Feb 11, 2022 4:17am Feb 11, 2022 4:17am
Eur testing M30 downtrend stop 1405 atm.. 10 mins to go.. lets see bears can hold...
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  • #95,438
  • Feb 11, 2022 5:35am Feb 11, 2022 5:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1/2 of a normal retrace is 1401.4
Since 1369 is a big #. I will wait for 1432, unless something changes. Stops could be just a little above. Or stops could be above 1447/49. But if today closes above 1447/49. Then I would expect a retry of 1492. Bears ruled this place yesterday. Bears ruled, after the week missed 1447.x slightly. Early last week it fell. But the same week miss of 1447, was above 1369. Since atm pa is above 1369. The potential to retest 1447 is there. Waiting for a normal retrace to 1432 is not a bad thing. I may miss the break in 1369 if it dont bounce. I dont like the risk for my personal target. I cant reach my goal overleveraging my stop. Shorting 1432, with a stop at 1452 reaches my goal risk. To tp 1332. I will will also add another at 1447 with the same stop. That would move my tp closer to 1390. I may have to sit out the break of 1369 until I see a future opening. I made good money on the 1462 drop. I will try to keep most of it.

I could have taken the trade below 1432. But my stops would be below 1332 (norm). I would rather have the stops above a normal retrace. I'm not saying pa is not bearish. That 12h close below 1407 1401 1398 is bearish. Its just that norm happens most times. But bullish w/o 1369 closed below
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,439
  • Feb 11, 2022 5:49am Feb 11, 2022 5:49am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Not the telling 10 year. But this could cause some movement later. When considered with the 10 yr. {image}
i was expecting the same thing - but it has to come a point where it should get wery well on auction

both pair traders are forcing FED and ECB to pay way more

what is US going to do with such a debt ? just pay big interest . i think not.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #95,440
  • Edited 6:33am Feb 11, 2022 6:22am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i was expecting the same thing - but it has to come a point where it should get wery well on auction both pair traders are forcing FED and ECB to pay way more what is US going to do with such a debt ? just pay big interest . i think not.
Yeah, debt is an issue. Its just a pozi scheme. Higher wages do bring in more taxes. Inflated products bring in more tax $. Its kinda a wash if you look at it this way. Yeah debt repayment goes higher. Deficit cost more to repay the interest. Its not as clear cut as they make out in the media. If it was we would had gone bankrupt decades ago. The EZ and most modern economies using a income tax system is on the same path.

What's the EZ going to do with a economy that's based on 43% on exports? How can they possibly compete with the U.S. who has natural resources with abundant energy compared to the EZ. The natural flow of the Euro should be much less than 1 to 1. Gravity will win in the end. It just may take a few decades. Another 35% drop puts it at .66 (1/2 of today's eu). From mid 2008/2010 The e/u dropped 25%. That can happen again. So people think the ECB wants to raise the price of Beamers via interest rates? Good luck with that EZ. Sure inflation in the EZ is out of control. But people have lived beyond their means in the U.S., and the EZ to a greater degree. The chickens will come home to roost. Tf you want a good business, start selling small vegetable garden supplies. Food will be going up in the EZ.

The ECB may bullshit the world. They are not bullshitting me. They depend on exports 4X more than the U.S. The entire pump to 1.6 was bullshit. Now Russia , this may not end well.
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