even the FOMC price still respect the imbalance in 15 min. my question is if I take a trade on this pink line and there are not Fomc, is the stop on red line appropriate?Thank you ,MM
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- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
{quote} Thank you , MM
You can use a smaller stop but that will depend on your " trading setup ", on how you approach the market...some traders are more comfortable using 20 / 30 pips stops other like smaller stops...and other like bigger stops
For example:
Assuming you entered at the low of that FVG, you can set your SL at or just above that candles high ( the candle with the FVG ) on the 15m TF
Above that FVG there are a 3 consecutive up close candles that form an Bearish Order Block, if you're wrong and price will not stop at that FVG market will take you out breaking that FVG candles high and you can enter short at that OB and using the high to place your SL order.
You can also do as I said in post above, using the swing high to place your stop loss and entering short at the FVG, if price doesn't stop at FVG high you have still room for price to come up to that Bearish OB without taking you out, but you need to be comfortable to absorb some drawdown.
Peace
- | Joined May 2015 | Status: Junior Member | 1 Post
Loving the thread. And its focusing on cable which is exactly what I am interested in.
Long time student of trading, but hate backtesting with a passion!
Full time job so mainly focus on D/4h/1h timeframes.
Also no indicators but mainly PA.
I also want to take a challenge soon probably, but I really need to define my strategy properly. I always flip between naked charts PA and 2MA's (20/40) and I am used to both.
Will be paying close attention to this thread
Long time student of trading, but hate backtesting with a passion!
Full time job so mainly focus on D/4h/1h timeframes.
Also no indicators but mainly PA.
I also want to take a challenge soon probably, but I really need to define my strategy properly. I always flip between naked charts PA and 2MA's (20/40) and I am used to both.
Will be paying close attention to this thread
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
Loving the thread. And its focusing on cable which is exactly what I am interested in. Long time student of trading, but hate backtesting with a passion! Full time job so mainly focus on D/4h/1h timeframes. Also no indicators but mainly PA. I also want to take a challenge soon probably, but I really need to define my strategy properly. I always flip between naked charts PA and 2MA's (20/40) and I am used to both. Will be paying close attention to this thread
Hi rjenkins65,
Thanks for your input, appreciate your interest
I think backtesting is very important because of the insight it gives, in the last ICT's videos he talks about it and gives a good comparison with a deer hunter...the Hunter must now the animal tracks before he can hunt it down.
I also believe if one doesn't make backtesting but have a trading plan and keeps doing the same thing over and over, he will achieve same point of understanding when making backtesting, it will take more time to get there...assuming one doesn't deviate from trading plan.
Wish you a good trading journey.
Peace
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
Really a little discouraged about GBP now, look at the 30min and 4h cycles 。
I don't look for cycles, I only mesure and project price swings
It's all about Price action
Discouragement shouldn't be found in trading..why do you feel discouraged?
Peace
{quote} You're welcome
I see ,MM
Thank you for more detail in stoploss setting.
I would like to use SL at swing high as you first told me .
For me it's ok to have some drawdown than lose the trade or miss the good set up.
MM
In daily chart I see price made a swing low and the fourth candle break the third candle.
but chart still look bearish. I feel like it's not a strong PA.
should I wake for more clear structure break PA ?
or should I take a trade (open limit order) at the 61.8 (OTE) fibo level of the last price swing in 1H timeframe that break the market structure ?
or 61.8 of the smaller swing 15 min (from the pink line to new high)
or should I wait for any downside draw on liquidity at Kill zone (London Newyork) and ride from that area to 15m FVG at 1.3488
or should I see it in the different view?
Thank you
SB
In daily chart I see price made a swing low and the fourth candle break the third candle.
but chart still look bearish. I feel like it's not a strong PA.
should I wake for more clear structure break PA ?
or should I take a trade (open limit order) at the 61.8 (OTE) fibo level of the last price swing in 1H timeframe that break the market structure ?
or 61.8 of the smaller swing 15 min (from the pink line to new high)
or should I wait for any downside draw on liquidity at Kill zone (London Newyork) and ride from that area to 15m FVG at 1.3488
or should I see it in the different view?
Thank you
SB
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
MM In daily chart I see price made a swing low and the fourth candle break the third candle. but chart still look bearish. I feel like it's not a strong PA. should I wake for more clear structure break PA ? or should I take a trade (open limit order) at the 61.8 (OTE) fibo level of the last price swing in 1H timeframe that break the market structure ? or 61.8 of the smaller swing 15 min (from the pink line to new high) or should I wait for any downside draw on liquidity at Kill zone (London Newyork) and ride from that area to 15m FVG at 1.3488 or...
I'm sorry not replying in due time but today was my first course day, unfortunately here in Germany things work a bit different from my home country, when one doesn't have papers to prove he/she can do some Job you need to go to school
...so here I am...at school again So my time now will be very limited.
I know that now is in sight but, you should have considered the small swing first...because...you can pull fibs from a low/high made at any session and price made a swing low ( stop raid at SSL ) at yesterday's NY session.
When price came of that low made 2 times an imbalance...the first one was close soon price made it but they left the 2nd imbalance " open "...below of that imbalance is an Bullish Order Block.
Today's Assia Session closed the imbalance and hit the OB several times and traded higher ( signs of buying ).
Peace
{quote} Hi SimpleBoy
To sum up what you taught me
look at the swing of the previous session ( swing that have stop raid )
then look for open Imbalance ( If it combined with order block, it will be a more reliable set up )
wait for imbalance to be closed and hit in the next session
price trade higher ,
buy
set the stop loss at the last swing low
target at daily FVG
To go to school again, that sound fun MM
Thank you so much that you take time to answer my question.
and MM please continue to answer and teach me.
even in a late reply ,I'll still do really appreciate it .
Thank you so much, very much
Simple Boy
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
{quote} To sum up what you taught me look at the swing of the previous session ( swing that have stop raid ) then look for open Imbalance ( If it combined with order block, it will be a more reliable set up ) wait for imbalance to be closed and hit in the next session price trade higher , buy set the stop loss at the last swing low target at daily FVG To go to school again, that sound fun MM Thank you so much that you take time to answer my question. and MM please continue to answer and teach me. even in a late reply ,I'll still do really appreciate...
I'm really happy to see that I could help you somehow
It'll be my pleasure to continue replying your questions.Note that price doesn't need to do a stop raid ( it's better when they do it...purging stops ) because they can only fill FVG's and change direction after.
Note also that you don't need to have an OB below or above FVG's.
If you have OB below/above market price it only adds one more question...is price gonna stop at FVG or will it continue moving till it hits the OB.
Learning new things is always good...at least in my perspective
Peace
{quote} Hi SimpleBoy
I'm tired of myself to write "Thank you" to you but I have to ,Thank you so much MM for your generosity and more clarity you bring in FVG's ,OB and stop raid .
I just thought of it, the SMT divergence.
I see some thing between new daily swing that opposite the trend and SMT divergence, but I will make sure of myself what i see
and It's 1 PM in Thailand now. I will go to bed and I will be back to ask you tomorrow.
Thank you, MM
Regards
SB
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
It's amazing that price continue to offer 3 day consecutive PA opportunity in the same direction after the daily swing low was formed according to conservative approach.
Note also in the daily charts that after 3 consecutive up / down closes days price will tend to retrace.
Took a long last Monday and I left a small portion on aiming for that Daily swing high...BOE have raised rate to 0.5% today but we gonna have NFP tomorrow...I " think " we gonna see big manipulation tomorrow...
Peace
{quote} Hey SimpleBoy
Thank you MM
you said you think the movement on non-farm payroll would be a manipulation. Does it mean this down move from NFP will be short and then price probably gonna take that Daily swing high for drawing on liquidity and interest rate's sake ?
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
{quote} Thank you MM
If you can have certain of something in the markets is that in those days where we have FOMC News or NFP market will be manipulated.
I was expecting big manipulation because on the day before news release, EURUSD had already taken the swing high on daily chart and cable didn't and even though cable had the rates increased from 0.25% to 0.5% the numbers expected for NFP was to low...leading one to think that they wanted to drive markets down...
You can also add the seasonal tendecies, for February it shows consolidation and a swing low in month of March.
Also look at the 10 Year T note weekly chart...we're closing the imbalance.
Peace
{quote} Hi SimpleBoy
There are many things in your post this time ,So I have to take time to digest them
for now i have one question ,you expect big manipulation in the downside right ? , How about your buy position on monday
Did you close it yet and where did you close that position ?
And 10 year T note
when it close weekly imbalance , it will go down right?
and make dollar go higher and then make cable go lower ?
- | Joined Sep 2021 | Status: Member | 91 Posts
{quote} Hi MM There are many things in your post this time ,So I have to take time to digest them for now i have one question ,you expect big manipulation in the downside right ? , How about your buy position on monday Did you close it yet and where did you close that position ? And 10 year T note when it close weekly imbalance , it will go down right? and make dollar go higher and then make cable go lower ?
The manipulation I refered to was on the swing highs..Euro went above last swing high on daily chart but cable didn't...crack in correlation...SMT Divergence...manipulation! As consequence price went lower.
ICT have to many tools
it's very easy to become overwhelmed...for exemple you don't need to use the Bond Market...but you can use same " ICT theories "!At this moment the 10 year yield Daily chart made a doble top...from now, they can drop it or they can run higher ( tomorrow or next day ) and fill complety the gap...we never know what " they " will do...so we wait....we wait for a displacement...higher or lower
I've closed my long today and went short in NY Session 1.3580 was the entry with 10 pip stop loss.
Peace
{quote} Hey SimpleBoy
MM, I wonder that since last week , besides last Monday
Do you add any other buy position on last tuesday , wednesday or thursday because there also are buy signal on those day ?
and This week after friday low's liquidity taken on monday ,even Eurusd and cable convergence ,
there are also buy signal on Tuesday and yesterday .
Do you take any buy position this week
or you just ignore them and wait for sell signal according to SMT divergence.
I just curious ,mm
Thank you