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  • #144,421
  • Jan 27, 2022 3:03pm Jan 27, 2022 3:03pm
Quoting HDcommander
Can situation between Ukraine and Russia be the reason that Euro is falling so much...??
Great question so let's dive in shall we?

First ask yourself WHO benefits from a war?

1. OIL - hence the huge run up; wars always generate a need for fuel and this is no different
2. Russia - no effect on EU
3. Ukraine - see #2
4. USA - NOPE! so possible dollar negative

Given the situation with the FED and Powell's HAWKISH statements we KNOW that interest rates will be rising 0.25 starting at the next FOMC in March.

So what is causing all the flee to "security"?

The FED didn't mention unloading their balance sheet - THAT is what is causing the USA equities market to drop. Just look at the past - the last time the FED started unloading their balance sheet the market tanked - this time won't be much different.

People have to understand that the FED is concerned with 1. 2% inflation goal and 2. Full employement in the workplace.
That's it folks! As long as the BANKING SYSTEM is stable and can withstand the stress tests the FINANCIAL MARKETS aren't the FED's problem.

Today was a sell the rumor and later it will be a buy the fact.

As for the little "war" - forgetabout it....no but seriously forget about it. With the Winter Olympics in 2 weeks Putin won't invade as a "favor" to Chairman Xi (Professional courtesy). The real purpose of talking about the war is to get people in the USA to forget the higher prices and higher rent and higher food and ...you get the picture.

This scenario reminds me of a movie that I would recommend watching: Wag the Dog.

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...because you never know - until you do!
  • #144,422
  • Jan 27, 2022 3:17pm Jan 27, 2022 3:17pm
Updated DAILY S/R Levels

  1. I quickly revised my previous falling wedge to this one.. This time I also included the quarter levels (dotted lines), next to the regular median line..
  2. 1.1170 area is new pivot and while below of course bears have the upper hand..
  3. Since price just touched the quarter line, we might see a bounce up for some 50 to 75 pips (even 100 pips if bulls can create enough momentum), but with anticipation of the main bearishness and the speed this pair flows, we could say that it could still continue to drop towards nearest support that roughly sits around 1.1085 and even 1.1004 if bears can keep momentum..
  4. Long story short: The moment price touched the quarter line of the wedge at 1.1140, I personally expect a bullish bounce.. Nothing for sure though, so trade safe and have your mental stops in place..

I hope it helps

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #144,423
  • Jan 27, 2022 4:14pm Jan 27, 2022 4:14pm
I think 1.0865 is on the table now.

Here is a comparison of statements between ECB and FED.

The European Central Bank has no need to fundamentally change its assessment of the inflation outlook or accelerate policy tightening, according to Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus. Euro-area monetary policy can’t be compared with the U.S. or other jurisdictions “because the economic situation is different,” the Lithuanian central bank chief said in an interview. That means an increase in interest rates is far from being on the ECB’s agenda, even as the Federal Reserve prepares for a March hike. “There is uncertainty, and I agree it has increased,” Simkus said on Tuesday. “But I don’t have evident facts that the projections have changed so substantially that we should start discussing whether the inflation outlook has changed to one that’s far beyond our 2% objective.”

Powel said in press conference: We know that the economy is in a very different place than it was when we began raising rates in 2015. Specifically, the economy is now much stronger. The labor market is far stronger. Inflation is running well above our 2 percent target, much higher than it was at that time. And these differences are likely to have important implications for the appropriate pace of policy adjustments. Beyond that, we haven't made any decisions.

In my opinion 1.1175-1.1185 is a range that can be added more shorts. 1H and 4H RSI is oversold for a moment. Bears need at least 12 hours to get back the strength to move this further down.
Position Trader
  • #144,424
  • Jan 27, 2022 7:09pm Jan 27, 2022 7:09pm
Quoting HDcommander
Can situation between Ukraine and Russia be the reason that Euro is falling so much...??
Don't really want to get into politics, but I wonder this myself. The current situation has been unchanged for the longest time, the MSM has created this "imminent war" narrative purely out of nothing, to the confusion of both Russia and Ukraine. I wonder if the selloff is at least in part because of that, combined with the Fed.

If it is, I think we will soon get a pretty decent bounce.

https://i.imgur.com/lerLv0G.png
  • #144,425
  • Jan 27, 2022 10:54pm Jan 27, 2022 10:54pm
Quoting fxsport
{quote} Great question so let's dive in shall we? First ask yourself WHO benefits from a war? 1. OIL - hence the huge run up; wars always generate a need for fuel and this is no different 2. Russia - no effect on EU 3. Ukraine - see #2 4. USA - NOPE! so possible dollar negative Given the situation with the FED and Powell's HAWKISH statements we KNOW that interest rates will be rising 0.25 starting at the next FOMC in March. So what is causing all the flee to "security"? The FED didn't mention unloading their balance sheet - THAT is what is causing...
Thanks for the reply.
  • #144,426
  • Jan 28, 2022 1:25am Jan 28, 2022 1:25am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Okay. Long here now 1.1134. From here till 1.1100 I will be going long in small increments. My target is that 1.1200 area. Please this is just for today and tomorrow. I think the max monthly target is that 1.1104. I will keep my SL just below 1.1090. I expect a good rise tomorrow just to create another sell opportunity, maybe.
Okay. Just an update. Exited at 1.1152. That's about +16. Also sold 1.1150 and banked at 1.1140.

Now I am long again from 1.1133. I kept 100 pips SL in case of their madness. My TP is 1.1200 and above. Good morning all.
  • #144,427
  • Jan 28, 2022 1:44am Jan 28, 2022 1:44am
Quoting SirMcPip
{quote} One thing i wanted to mention real quick if anyone is thinking about buying into what i think is next. This 03-21-2020 High i was talking about took us down to 1.0637. One should not only take note of the distance but also the speed with which it happened. Just my personal opinion.
Second target at 1.1130 has just been reached. Normal Monthly Range Limit for January is 1.1129 ...3 weekly supports already breached, 3rd monthly support is at 1.1099. If this 1.1100-1.1130 area dont provide some serious support after having hit the Daily Low from 06-19-2020, some dynamics could set in either today or next week. The quoted scenario already happened twice from around the 1.15 level, the week of 10-11-2015 and the week of 03-08-2020...this time the correction stopped also just short of 1.15. Doesnt mean the descent has to happen in that style once again, just something to keep in the back of the mind as a possibility. In summary, retail traders 65% long, pretty much same scenario ever since we dropped from 1.1650. Next Target, 1.0960.
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  • #144,428
  • Jan 28, 2022 2:51am Jan 28, 2022 2:51am
Just a waste of time down here. IMHO price isn't going much lower here. There are lots of equal tops to be taken out. Also lots of missed pivots: Today's pivot at 1.1173 still being missed, yesterday's pivot at 1267 was missed. Two days ago pivot at 1.1316 was missed. The day before another was missed. It doesn't work that way. Some of the missed pivots will be checked. Just a matter of time.

I am not using the sell button again today, no matter what. For me today it is go big or go home. Lol...

Edit: I bought most of the dips. On to 1.1170 as first target! All stops 100 pips below.
  • #144,429
  • Jan 28, 2022 3:12am Jan 28, 2022 3:12am
From my expierience today euro will go up good, friday, graph also looks down, so it will cheat your eye
  • #144,430
  • Jan 28, 2022 3:40am Jan 28, 2022 3:40am
Good morning, hope you're well. I think 1.1122 is a good support level. I hope we'll see the bulls rise.
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  • #144,431
  • Jan 28, 2022 3:43am Jan 28, 2022 3:43am
Quoting Mitiblotch
Just a waste of time down here. IMHO price isn't going much lower here. There are lots of equal tops to be taken out. Also lots of missed pivots: Today's pivot at 1.1173 still being missed, yesterday's pivot at 1267 was missed. Two days ago pivot at 1.1316 was missed. The day before another was missed. It doesn't work that way. Some of the missed pivots will be checked. Just a matter of time. I am not using the sell button again today, no matter what. For me today it is go big or go home. Lol... Edit: I bought most of the dips. On to 1.1170 as first...
I on the other hand have a bunch of pending sells, starting 1.1173, 1.1181 1.1206. Not looking for a reversal, just dont want to risk a buy when the low hasnt been printed yet, from where we are atm assuming the further targets for next monday monthly close, for the trend to keep representing the current situation, it cant reverse here. Therefore im looking for pullbacks to load shorts but not reversals and buying against the trend is how i lost money in the past there is no way im going to do the defenition of insanity again
  • #144,432
  • Jan 28, 2022 3:43am Jan 28, 2022 3:43am
Morning folks! Nice to see you. Bears just won another volatility war for me, sold at 1133 for 1108, sl can be tight 1140. Will reenter once only if fails before news.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #144,433
  • Jan 28, 2022 3:56am Jan 28, 2022 3:56am
Hi All,

time to little bounce after 2.5 days of nice downtrend move. Is end of week so traders will start to collect their profits on entire USD index, so loooking that EURUSD is over 50% of all USD Index ( in 6 currency basket ), so the move should be the biggest here.

So i'm now long from 1.1134 with SL at 1.1104 with open TP ( my first target is at least at 1.1180 ).

Have a nice day for All!
Everyone makes mistakes, but only few use equity management.
  • #144,434
  • Jan 28, 2022 4:36am Jan 28, 2022 4:36am
Quoting bpola
{quote} Expecting a big drop in EurUsd cos lower highs. Still holding shorts. Targets:: 1.1224 1.1123 1.1022 Happy weekend everyone.
2nd target hit.
Another 25% of position taken off.
Trailing stop loss of 50 pips.
Let's see if 3rd target will get hit.
  • #144,435
  • Jan 28, 2022 4:50am Jan 28, 2022 4:50am
I find that this thread is really amazing in content these days! Some thought provoking and so many more insightful posts and also old members coming back and new ones. Anyways, just had to say, loving it.

After I reach a certain milestone during a big news period, and there is still Big news, I go in preserving mode.
Aside from one more entry for my last setup(which I lost -7 pips just now), no more trading before the news for me.

With that, I say to all : Have an amazing trading day !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #144,436
  • Jan 28, 2022 4:52am Jan 28, 2022 4:52am
Quoting Windstrown
{quote} I on the other hand have a bunch of pending sells, starting 1.1173, 1.1181 1.1206. Not looking for a reversal, just dont want to risk a buy when the low hasnt been printed yet, from where we are atm assuming the further targets for next monday monthly close, for the trend to keep representing the current situation, it cant reverse here. Therefore im looking for pullbacks to load shorts but not reversals and buying against the trend is how i lost money in the past there is no way im going to do the defenition of insanity again ...
Good luck. I hope you make money. But you see, your shorts at 1.1173, 1.1181 and 1.1206 (1.1206 is the good one, actually) will all be taken out. It is a promise. Today, if you sell, you will lose. It is another promise. Lol... I understand your points, but there are many factors you are missing and which I will not outline here. But with years of proper observation you may begin to understand these factors. You see today is a buy day. I sincerely don't believe in trends; I just follow price.

The target might be 1.06 levels, but I can categorically tell you that it will bounce hard before that price. In fact, let me give you a clue: the low today was 1.1121 do you know why it didn't break/breach 1.1120? And when such numbers are not breached do you know what it means? I watch session moves (Asia, London, NY) and something happened yesterday and this morning. I also watch numbers that are important to algos. And then options. Too many factors. We don't just follow "trends" blindly. It was trending short when it rose to 1.1483. When it is time to short I will get in again. There are equal tops around 1.1150 and people are shorting at 1.1130 without the equal tops being taken out, and I wonder what they have learned after all these years of trading. Equal tops are signs. The algos usually come for those places.

My trade today was planned yesterday and it is going as planned. Today it should rise and Monday it should rise even more. These are my FALLIBLE opinions.
  • #144,437
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:00am Jan 28, 2022 5:00am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Good luck. I hope you make money. But you see, your shorts at 1.1173, 1.1181 and 1.1206 (1.1206 is the good one, actually) will all be taken out. It is a promise. Today, if you sell, you will lose. It is another promise. Lol... I understand your points, but there are many factors you are missing and which I will not outline here. But with years of proper observation you may begin to understand these factors. You see today is a buy day. I sincerely don't believe in trends; I just follow price. The target might be 1.06 levels, but I can categorically...
Valid opinion mate but will not change my entry though
  • #144,438
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:03am Jan 28, 2022 5:03am
1133 reentry, SL has been moved up, bloody wicks have to be taken into account now, SL1145.. Nice support though by a fresh 1H volatility appearance in momentum setup, but only good if 1124 reached in the next (UPDATE) 30min, or Im out, ranging mode too dominant still, let's not kid ourselves, little chance we will go anywhere before news (but some of you know how I thrive on little chances !) !

Went aggressive on that last main move with entries from 1144-1154, which I regret because I broke a rule doing so, and will exit them before news if we are not under 1100 before, which probability was too low given the ranging nature of the session, so a waste of different resources I should put to work elsewhere, and that includes Time.

Now, apart from previous shared setup, only lower volatility trading allowed for me, and only after the big news dust settles. I have to preserve my gains and I have shorts too near, and I cannot risk lowering my second nearest entries(1215-1230)'s gains to be closed at next main TP level.

So, even though I have a good 1H setup(1st ) with sell stop 1125 TP open dynamic SL 1155, I will not take it. Next : BIg news time !!! Trade safe folks !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #144,439
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:06am Jan 28, 2022 5:06am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Good luck. I hope you make money. But you see, your shorts at 1.1173, 1.1181 and 1.1206 (1.1206 is the good one, actually) will all be taken out. It is a promise. Today, if you sell, you will lose. It is another promise. Lol... I understand your points, but there are many factors you are missing and which I will not outline here. But with years of proper observation you may begin to understand these factors. You see today is a buy day. I sincerely don't believe in trends; I just follow price. The target might be 1.06 levels, but I can categorically...
Eeehmmm... Bro, you can't "promise" things in the introduction and main part of your whole comment and then in the very end mentioning that all is "fallible" That final remark sounds like those little info texts quickly flowing below the screen on promising commercials.. Intentionally designed so that audience can't easily follow.. Sorry bro.. please don't mind me and please don't feel offended.. This just made me giggle.. (but trust me I hear you)
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #144,440
  • Jan 28, 2022 5:10am Jan 28, 2022 5:10am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Eeehmmm... Bro, you can't "promise" things in the introduction and main part of your whole comment and then in the very end mentioning that all is "fallible" That final remark sounds like those little info texts quickly flowing below the screen on promising commercials.. Intentionally designed so that audience can't easily follow.. Sorry bro.. please don't mind me and please don't feel offended.. This just made me giggle.. (but trust me I hear you)
Hahahaha... more like indemnification. Lol...
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